實際上真正決定大市、原油和金價走向的，還是美元 [US Dollar 圖]

空前未有的美元升勢尚未完結？？？

俺把今天4篇相關的文章，簡並成了一個帖子。

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出前一丁：U.S. Dollar Climbed To A 6 Month High！


（Euro/USD Fell To 6-Month Low...整個一天我都禁不住地一直在思量：這8/26的USD，會不會就是7/11的OIL？？？這兩點在圖上和消息麵上，可都是驚人地相似 -- 兩者都在6個月高點，經曆3天的pullback之後，又快速地帶量急升衝到一個新高，而CRUDE OIL就此進入一個major correction過程。。。我想搞清楚的，就是：那接下來的USD走式，會不會重蹈OIL覆轍？？？...70p...）




Today, the U.S. dollar climbed to a six month high against the euro on speculation the European Central Bank could have to cut interest rates to prevent the euro zone economy from falling into a deep recession. Indeed, earlier in the day, German’s Federal Statistics Office reported that Europe's largest economy contracted by 0.5 percent quarter on quarter in the April-June period.

Later, the euro fell for a third day against the dollar and broke below 1.46 after the IFO Survey showed that business confidence in German slumped to a three year low. Despite the recent easing on energy prices the ECB remains very concerned with inflation but the recent economic data has been so bad that the Governing Council of the ECB could be pressured to review its monetary policy.

According to overnight index swaps, traders expect the ECB to cut rates by nearly 50 bps over the next 12 months.

On the other hand, the next step by the Federal Reserve policy makers will be to raise interest rates, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today. Looking ahead, lower interest rate differentials could make the euro less attractive to foreign investors and the lower level of demand for assets denominated in euros could accelerate the losses in the EUR/USD.

``There's a good chance for the euro to go lower,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``People are giving up on bets for euro gains as the chance of an ECB rate hike fades away.'' The euro also declined today versus the yen on concern credit-market losses and slowing exports will stop the European Central Bank from raising the interest rate this year. The current interest rate stands at 4.25%.

The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.4601 as if 8:18am, GMT. EUR/JPY trading at 160.51.

The dollar's rally over the past month is ``close to unprecedented'' in the 35 years since the currency was decoupled from gold and will have room to rise on bets the European Central Bank will begin cutting borrowing costs, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the four-week rate of change in the Federal Reserve's trade-weighted U.S. dollar index since 1973 and the 6.3 percent gain through Aug. 15, the second-largest increase ever recorded.

``The ECB is going to start cutting early next year -- in January,'' said Steven Englander, a currency strategist at Lehman in New York. ``Right now, the first ECB cut isn't priced in to the market until July. We are significantly more aggressive in terms of thinking how the ECB is going to respond to weaker growth and lower inflation.''

The UK pound is falling against the dollar after a report showed economic growth stagnated in the second quarter. The report added to pressure on the Bank of England to set aside concerns about inflation and cut its benchmark interest rate which is currently at 5 percent. BBA Mortgage Approvals come out slightly better than expected at 22.4K from an expected 21.1K. The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.8390 as of 8:24am, GMT.

The dollar will rise to $1.43 per euro by year-end and strengthen to $1.40 by the end of the first quarter, Englander said. The dollar recently traded at $1.4757 in Tokyo.

The ECB left its main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent on Aug. 7, when President Jean-Claude Trichet said growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter.


笑一笑，十年少。。。