生活其實很簡單
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正文
First of all, I do not believe this market will crash right here.
This market has turned into a political market. FA will still apply for long term analysis. However, short term TA is pretty much malfunctioned. A lot of the traders are pretty much freezed. There is only one thing that will trigger this market to crash right now, ie., the public loses 100% confidence to the Fed and US government.
What the Fed and US government had done the last couple of weeks has shown the world that, they will do whatever under their power to save the US financial system and save this market. And the central banks of the world will support them, and they have no choice but to support the US due to the severe consequences to their own economy and the survivorship of their own financial systems.
Nobody, I mean, NOBODY at this time, can afford to see the market crash right here at this point. The debate has a lot of heat right now. However, this is just a game for both parties trying to gain some points and also taking this chance to trash the opponent. Eventually, they will work out something. In general, the US public is relatively naive and that's why the Dem is having an upper hand here. On the other hand, if the Dem over plays their cards and blocks this bill, and thus cause a severe market crash which will lead to immediate economic downfall, the Republic and the US public will turn around to blame the Dem. The Dem can't affort that to happen. None of the parties can afford the market carsh at this election year.
The economic situation and market situation is very different from 1987. The US is in a much dire economic situation right now and there is nothing to propell the economic recovery. The normal market mechanism simply ceases to work now. Fortunately, in a short term basis, the US government still has room to maneuver, to give hope to the market and buy time for the market.
However, I do believe a severe crash will happen in a year or two. It will be caused by the economic situation and the total trash of hope. We are very well in the process of witnessing one of the greater recessions of all time. For all of us, instead of worrying about how to trade now, we better spend sometime to think of how we should prepare ourselves to weather the storm that will affect not only our wealth, but also our families well beings.
This market has turned into a political market. FA will still apply for long term analysis. However, short term TA is pretty much malfunctioned. A lot of the traders are pretty much freezed. There is only one thing that will trigger this market to crash right now, ie., the public loses 100% confidence to the Fed and US government.
What the Fed and US government had done the last couple of weeks has shown the world that, they will do whatever under their power to save the US financial system and save this market. And the central banks of the world will support them, and they have no choice but to support the US due to the severe consequences to their own economy and the survivorship of their own financial systems.
Nobody, I mean, NOBODY at this time, can afford to see the market crash right here at this point. The debate has a lot of heat right now. However, this is just a game for both parties trying to gain some points and also taking this chance to trash the opponent. Eventually, they will work out something. In general, the US public is relatively naive and that's why the Dem is having an upper hand here. On the other hand, if the Dem over plays their cards and blocks this bill, and thus cause a severe market crash which will lead to immediate economic downfall, the Republic and the US public will turn around to blame the Dem. The Dem can't affort that to happen. None of the parties can afford the market carsh at this election year.
The economic situation and market situation is very different from 1987. The US is in a much dire economic situation right now and there is nothing to propell the economic recovery. The normal market mechanism simply ceases to work now. Fortunately, in a short term basis, the US government still has room to maneuver, to give hope to the market and buy time for the market.
However, I do believe a severe crash will happen in a year or two. It will be caused by the economic situation and the total trash of hope. We are very well in the process of witnessing one of the greater recessions of all time. For all of us, instead of worrying about how to trade now, we better spend sometime to think of how we should prepare ourselves to weather the storm that will affect not only our wealth, but also our families well beings.
二鞠躬！！
（我上一個id是夢過無痕，改成firefly8。）