生活其實很簡單
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１。 空的要小心。 DT除外。Market internal 不weak。
２。 Obama 的心已在下一屆連任。做法是，大喊：天啊，我真遭罪，美國要跨啦。反正，有多慘，喊多慘。不喊白不喊。不這樣，他能顯他的能力嗎？ 所以，這幾個月，他越喊，股市越長。為啥，他是西方紅啊！ 是老美的HOPE。
３。這西方紅有一天變了西方黑時。 天真的就塌了。 那時不空，對不起你祖宗。
Regarding to RE, the next knife to fall is commercial real estate which will involve a huge amount of bad loans.
I expect NYC to fall hard starting this year. Talked to two of my broker friends last night, most of the deals were canceled right at the day the contract supposed to be signed either due to the loan not getting approved or the buyers backing off at the last moment.
Bear in mind, with the global economic situation worsen, the hot foreign money that flowed into NYC vicinity, LA and SF areas the last two years(which has helped to sustain the housing price in those areas greatly) will dry up. In Brooklyn and Queens areas, a lot of houses are bought with the injection of hot money from Chinese the last couple of years. Now, it's drying up big time. And even though the price is not falling hard yet, the sales has been down by more than 50% the last two months. We all know that, with the big drop in sales, the next to fall will be price. This is exactly what had happened in other area such as DC metropolitan and Bay Area.
So, the worst is yet to come.
２。 Obama 的心已在下一屆連任。做法是，大喊：天啊，我真遭罪，美國要跨啦。反正，有多慘，喊多慘。不喊白不喊。不這樣，他能顯他的能力嗎？ 所以，這幾個月，他越喊，股市越長。為啥，他是西方紅啊！ 是老美的HOPE。
３。這西方紅有一天變了西方黑時。 天真的就塌了。 那時不空，對不起你祖宗。
Regarding to RE, the next knife to fall is commercial real estate which will involve a huge amount of bad loans.
I expect NYC to fall hard starting this year. Talked to two of my broker friends last night, most of the deals were canceled right at the day the contract supposed to be signed either due to the loan not getting approved or the buyers backing off at the last moment.
Bear in mind, with the global economic situation worsen, the hot foreign money that flowed into NYC vicinity, LA and SF areas the last two years(which has helped to sustain the housing price in those areas greatly) will dry up. In Brooklyn and Queens areas, a lot of houses are bought with the injection of hot money from Chinese the last couple of years. Now, it's drying up big time. And even though the price is not falling hard yet, the sales has been down by more than 50% the last two months. We all know that, with the big drop in sales, the next to fall will be price. This is exactly what had happened in other area such as DC metropolitan and Bay Area.
So, the worst is yet to come.
評論
drywall
2009-01-13 17:45:00
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悄悄話
I've been checking your blog every couple of days. Your opinion is very objective,sharp and helpful. Keep posting good stuff!
10x10year
2009-01-09 16:05:45
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悄悄話
Great post!
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