A Bear is still a Bear
(2008-07-24 06:39:31)
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I am sure you all know the famous speech by Martin Luther King, Jr, I have a dream.
Unfortunately, that's what a bear market is all about, Dreaming and hoping. Worst yet, all those dreams will be crushed by the Big Bear. Simply put, bear market is about bear crushing the dreams and hopes of bulls. To simplify matters, the wave theory can be interpreted as below in a bear market:
Bull says: I have a dream --> market rally to a lower high.
Bear says: wake up, darling --> market falls to a lower low.
.....Same wave pattern repeats itself again and again....
Up to a point that, bull is exhausted and has no energy to say, I have a dream. At this point the bear retreats.
The death of a bear market can be explained by the nature of the bear. Bear does not like dead bodies. We all know that when you are attacked by a bear, just lying down like you are dead and the bear will not touch you. Bear does not like the dead body of a bull so it goes back to hiberation.
To dare to dream that this bear market is over, you are simply out of your mind. Did you see the massive credit default reported by AXP this week? Besides defaulting their houses, people have no money left to repay their credit card debt and therefore, the next round of credit default is coming.
As far as for Financial? The only logical thing bull should do now is to take this chance to dump all financial stocks they have now. SKF will be back to over 200 once financial goes back to where they should belong.
In average, a good bear market drops 30%, a bad one drops 42%. This one? A super bad one. This is just the beginning. A very bad bear market will not be over until all indices hit their 200 month averages,
S&P: 981.
Naz: 1771
Dow: 8360
For big bears like us, we still have plenty of time to make our money down the road. How to do it? Easy enough. Everytime when the bull yells, "I have a dream", we follow their dream and make some long money. Once the sound wave of the dream hits a mountain, we crush the dream.
For those who have a clear mind, bear market is actually very fun.