Economist 衝突--中國最近的強硬態度既危險又無效

http://www.economist.com/node/17902953?story_id=17902953&CFID=159284393&CFTOKEN=39706345DiscordChina’s tough new attitude is both dangerous and counterproductive 衝突--中國最近的強硬態度既危險又無效WHAT has happened to the “harmonious world” that China’s president, Hu Jintao, once championed? Where is the charm offensive that was meant to underpin it? Recent revelations about its military programmes are the latest Chinese moves to have unsettled the world. Strip the charm from Chinese diplomacy and only the offensive is left. Sino-American relations are at their lowest ebb since a Chinese fighter collided with an American EP-3 spyplane a decade ago.中國國家主席胡錦濤所曾經倡導的“和諧世界”出了什麽問題？那個曾經想鞏固這個理念的“魅力威權”(charm offensive，指中國曾經對其他國家offensive，但近年來為了改善外交關係而嚐試著變得charming)的哪裏去了？最近泄露的關於其軍力計劃的消息是中國使得世界不安的最新舉動。其(向他國所展示的)“魅力”已經從中國外交政策裏被剝離開了，所剩的僅是進攻的態勢。中美關係已經處在10年來的最低點了，當時一架中國戰鬥機與美國EP3偵察機相撞In the past few weeks China has made a splash with progress on an anti-ship missile and a stealth fighter jet. Every country has legitimate interests and the right to spend money defending them, especially a growing power like China. But even if their purpose is defensive, such weapons will inevitably alarm America and China’s neighbours. In the harmonious world China says it seeks, assertiveness needs to be matched with reassurance and explanation. Yet China undermined the confidence-building visit this week to Beijing of Robert Gates, America’s defence secretary (see picture), when it staged a test flight of the new jet (see article). It was an unfortunate curtain-raiser for the visit of China’s president, Hu Jintao, to Washington on January 18th. 在過去的幾周內，中國在反艦導彈和隱形戰鬥機方麵取得了長足進步。每個國家都有正當的利益與權力進行自衛，尤其是一個像中國這樣正在崛起的強權。但即使完全出於防衛的目的，這樣的武器也不可避免地讓美國及中國的鄰國感到威脅。在中國所尋求建立的和諧世界中，言語的主張需要與(事實行動上的)讓人確信及解釋相一致。然後中國卻用新型噴氣式戰鬥機的試飛破壞了美國國防部長羅伯特.蓋茨本周對北京的建立互信的訪問。對於中國胡主席在本月18日對華盛頓的訪問而言，這是一個不幸的開場秀。Sino-American relations have been deteriorating for a year. On his first visit to China in 2009 President Barack Obama was treated with disdain, and the Chinese government reacted with fury when he sanctioned arms sales to Taiwan that were neither a surprise nor game-changing and saw the Dalai Lama—also routine for American presidents. China broke off military-to-military contacts and officials suddenly stopped returning American diplomats’ calls. 中美關係最近一年持續惡化。2009年奧巴馬總統首次訪問時就受到了輕蔑地對待，而他批準對台軍售並接見DL喇嘛時，中國政府反應極其強烈，但事實上前者並無出格之處也沒有改變目前的遊戲格局，而後者也不過隻是美國總統的例行工作而已。但中國卻中止了兩軍交流，中國官員也突然間拒絕對美國外交官的電話(call，也可能廣義地指各種進行接觸的嚐試)進行回複。Tensions have also been growing with neighbours that China was once careful to cultivate. China has more forcefully asserted sovereignty over great swathes of the South China Sea. It overreacted after a Chinese trawler rammed a Japanese coastguard vessel in contested waters controlled by Japan. It got into a spat with India over visas for Kashmiri residents. And it failed to condemn the North Korean sinking of a South Korean corvette and the shelling of a South Korean island. Even Africa, once extremely friendly to China, is having doubts. Anger in Zambia is growing over Chinese managers who shot at mine workers. 緊張關係也在中國曾經悉心維護與之關係的鄰國間蔓延。中國非常強硬地強調對廣袤的南中國海的主權。在中國一艘漁船在中日爭議海域的日方實際控製區內與日本海岸警衛隊的艦艇相撞後，中國的反應也異常強烈。該國在給克什米爾地區居民簽發簽證方麵與印度產生了爭執，而且也沒有在朝鮮炸沉韓國的輕型巡洋艦並炮擊韓國島嶼之後對朝鮮進行譴責。即使是曾經對中國非常友好的非洲現在也對其產生了質疑。在讚比亞，人們對中國經理對當地工人開槍的行為充滿憤怒。Whereas a single incident sparked the spyplane crisis, today’s tensions are the culmination of lots of different things. China’s new raw-knuckle diplomacy is partly the consequence of a rowdy debate raging inside China about how the country should exercise its new-found power. The liberal, internationalist wing of the establishment, always small, has been drowned out by a nativist movement, fanned by the internet, which mistrusts an American-led international order. Western hawks conclude that China has broken with the pragmatic engagement it has followed for three decades. Its tough new line, they say, warrants an equally tough response.與之前由單一撞機事件引起的磨擦不同，今天的緊張關係是一係列不同事件的複雜結果。中國最近的raw-knuckle(不大知道是啥意思，似乎是指腳踝或膝蓋骨)外交政策部分是由於其國內關於這個國家應該如何利用其新掌握的實力的激烈爭論而導致的。當局的自由主義者及國際主義者，人數通常很少，已經被其國內在互聯網上廣受尊崇的愛國主義運動所淹沒了，這種運動不相信美國主導的國際秩序。西方鷹派認為中國已經放棄了其奉行30年的務實政策。他們說，這種粗暴的新政將導致同樣粗暴的回應。Don’t underestimate America不要低估美國 China’s recent behaviour is in part the product of a miscalculation, dating from the global financial crisis. Many Chinese believe that America’s power has gone into an inexorable decline. Chinese leaders’ preoccupation with sweeping changes to the Communist Party hierarchy in 2012 may be helping to reinforce this belief. At a time of domestic uncertainty, running down the foreign opposition is popular. 中國最近的行為部分是源於近期由全球金融危機導致的誤判。許多中國人認為美國的實力已經不可避免地衰落了。而中國領導人對2012年共黨領導層大調整的高度關注也加強了這種想法。在一個國內充滿了不確定性的時期，將注意力轉移到一致對外是例行做法。America is certainly losing clout in relative terms, but it will remain the world’s most fearsome military power for a very long time. If China behaves as though America is weak, and seeks to push back its power, a querulous but well-tended relationship could slide into competition and confrontation and bring about a cold-war stand-off or rivalry for influence in neighbouring states. Already, China’s tough new attitude is having an effect. America has redoubled its commitment to policing the South China Sea. Japan and South Korea have just announced closer defence co-operation. This does not serve China’s interests.美國確實是在相對程度上喪失了一定的影響力，但它在未來相當長時期內仍將擁有世界上最可怕的軍事實力。如果中國認為美國好像已經虛弱了，據此采取行動並希望抵抗美國的影響力，那麽一段曾經雖時有爭吵但畢竟由雙方悉心維護的關係將滑落至競爭和衝突並帶來冷戰式的保持距離或爭奪對鄰國的影響力。中國近期的強硬態度已經開始產生效果。美國已經大大加強其對保護南中國海的承諾。日韓兩國也剛剛宣布加強國防合作。這並不符合中國的利益。Mr Hu needs to counter rabid anti-Americanism at home by acknowledging the stabilising role the United States plays in the region, from which, indeed, China gets a huge free ride in the form of safe sea lanes and vast supplies of Middle East oil. And he should use his visit to America to reassure Mr Obama that pragmatic engagement still holds. He needs to show the world an open, confident face of a rising China. And though Communist leaders don’t “do” apologies, Mr Hu must persuade the world that a prickly year has been an aberration. 胡先生需要承認美國在該區域內所發揮的使其穩定的作用，以此來頂住國內的反美狂熱，其實中國在這種作用中也無償獲得了許多好處，如安全的國際航路及大量的中東石油供應。同時，他應該利用他的美國之行讓奧巴馬先生確信中國的務實政策仍然奏效。他需要向世界展現一個崛起的中國的開放和自信。雖然共黨領導人是絕不會道歉的，但胡先生還是必須讓全世界理解過去的充滿棘手問題的一年是一個誤會。----------------------------------------轉貼，僅供參考，不負責核實其內容真實性。