衛報:中國經濟的成功將很快帶來麻煩,同時也會帶給我們麻煩

衛報: 中國經濟的成功將很快帶來麻煩,同時也會帶給我們麻煩


http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/04/garton-ash-china-economy-comment



China\'s economic success may soon bring trouble. It would be ours too

中國經濟的成功將很快帶來麻煩。同時也會帶給我們麻煩。

The country\'s reformers seek incremental political changes to complement its gobsmacking growth. If they fail, it could be war

中國尋求更過的政治改革已尋求適應其令人眩目的經濟增長，但如果失敗的話，這將會是戰爭

In Chinese reactions to the troubles of the rest of the world, from the terrorist attacks in Mumbai to the recession in the US and Europe, I hear a hint of complacency and a touch of arrogance. If that\'s what you get with democracy, perhaps we\'re better off without it, is how one official thinker summarises his reaction to the atrocities in India. And if the west wants China to bail it out of this self-inflicted financial mess, it must give Beijing more power in international institutions. The refrain of China\'s back mingles with that wouldn\'t happen here. They may be speaking too soon. If they are, it will be our problem as well as theirs.

從孟買恐怖襲擊到歐美衰退，我在中國對世界其他地方的麻煩的反應看出一些自我滿足和一些傲慢。中國官方智囊對印度慘案的反映是：“如果民主就給你們這些的話，沒有民主可能還會好些”如果西方想要中國將其從這些自己造成的金融危機中拯救出來，它就要給中國在國際組織中更多的權力。“中國回歸”的回音混合著“那不會在這裏發生”。他們很快就會發聲。如果這成為事實的話，這將同時是我們和他們的麻煩。

Gobsmacking is the word to describe China\'s economic development over the 30 years since Deng Xiaoping initiated what has come to be known as the period of reform. In these three decades, growth has averaged more than 9% a year. As I write, I look out at the garishly neon-lit skyscrapers of downtown Shanghai, which make the business districts of all but the largest American cities seem low-rise and sober by comparison.

“ 讓人掉下巴”是鄧小平發起人們熟知的改革30年來世界形容中國經濟增長的詞匯。這30年來，中國平均年增長率超過9%。我寫這篇文章時，我看著上海市區那些華麗林立的摩天大樓，這些大樓讓除了美國最大城市之外其它商業區相形見拙。

Across the river, the Superbrand Mall is a buzzing hive of conspicuous consumption, with young Chinese stopping off for a coffee at Starbucks, weighed down with shopping bags from the most fashionable western brands. Yes, cities like Shanghai are islands of urban prosperity in a sea of rural backwardness, but this growth has also lifted perhaps 300 million people out of extreme poverty. If it goes on like this, the Chinese economy will, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, be roughly the same size as those of the United States and the European Union by 2020. If.

河對岸，正大廣場人流如潮，中國的年輕人購買了各種西方最流行的品牌的東西，大包小包的到辛巴克喝杯咖啡稍作休息。的確，上海這樣的城市是落後汪洋中一個繁榮的明珠。但這樣的增張率同時也使3億人脫離貧窮。如果經濟持續這樣增長下去，根據經濟學家信息部的報告，中國經濟2020年達到美國或歐盟的規模。如果。

The well-known free marketeer Zhang Weiying, dean of an impressive new management school at Peking University, argues that after 30 years the economic reform is essentially complete. Yes, the commanding heights of the economy are still occupied by giant state-controlled enterprises, but as they come to be quoted on stock exchanges across the world, gain minority private shareholders and face market pressures, so they increasingly behave like value-maximising companies. They have a long way to go, but the direction of travel is clear.


人們熟悉的隻有市場提倡者張維迎，北京大學管理學院主任爭論說：30年來的經濟改革基本完成。是的，經濟製高點仍然為巨型國有公司占據，但隨著其漸漸在全球股票市場報價，贏取少數私人股東且麵臨市場壓力時，他們日益像價值最大化的公司一樣進行操作，他們要走的路還很長，但方向是明確的。

What\'s needed for the next 30 years, he suggests, is a complementary political reform, starting with the rule of law. This is an argument I have heard many times over the past fortnight, and in quite surprising places. For instance, in the austere offices of the Chinese Communist party\'s Central Compilation and Translation Bureau, an institution whose primary task is to collect and translate official writings and declarations, from Marx through Mao to Hu Jintao. Its deputy director, Yu Keping, a prominent political scientist and party reformer, argues that China is moving from the rule of man towards the rule of law. For the first time in several thousand years of Chinese statehood, he suggests, ordinary people are being offered legal recourse against political authority. Even the top party and state leaders should be subject to the law. The country also needs more transparent, less corrupt government; a civil service answering more efficiently to the needs of its citizens (one-stop service! he cries enthusiastically); and more democracy, both in local government and inside the Communist party. Comrade Lenin would be turning in his grave.

他說：今後三十年需要的是一個補償性政治改革，從法製開始。上兩周來這種觀點聽到好幾次。例如中國一個首要任務為收集和翻譯中國官方從馬克思到毛澤東到胡錦濤著作和申明的嚴謹機構，中國共產黨中央編譯局。其副主任 Yu Keping ，一位卓越的政治家，政黨改革者，爭辯說中國正從人治向法治轉型。中國幾千年來第一次，中國普通人民被賦予了針對官方權威的法律援助。甚至中共高層和國家領導人也要受法律約束。國家也需要更加透明，更少腐敗的政府，一個更高效的應對公民需求的民政服務（他振臂高呼“一步到位”），和更多地方政府及共產黨內部民主。列寧同誌要在墓中翻身了。

Practice lags far behind this theory. Any Chinese lawyer can tell you how far away the country is from having an independent judiciary. And its ruling authorities, though no longer communist in anything but name, are in one vital sense still Leninist: that is, uncompromisingly defending their monopoly of political power. Nonetheless, in political reforms too, the direction of travel is encouraging.


實踐遠遠落後理論。任何律師都可以告訴你中國離司法獨立又多遠。其統治階層，盡管隻剩名稱是公產以外，其本質意義仍然是列林主義，即：堅定不移地維護其政治專政。盡管如此，其政治改革方向還是值得嘉獎的。


If we in the rest of the world have any sense, we will encourage it with every means at our disposal - starting from the aims set by Chinese reformers themselves. Rather than saying, No, this can\'t work, what you need is western-style multi-party democracy, we should say, Right, for strengthening the rule of law, here\'s this detailed body of experience; for a more professional civil service, we have this useful method. We will achieve more by offering a complex toolkit for good governance and the rule of law, including human and civil rights, rather than a single template for democracy.



如果身在世界其它國家的我們有一點判斷力的話。我們應力所能及的鼓勵他們——從中國改革者自己設定的目標開始——而不是說“這不行，你們需要的是西方式民主政治”，我們可以說“對，對於鞏固法製，我們有很多詳細的經驗，對於更職業的行政事務，我們這種方法很有用。”比起單一的民主模式，提供詳細有用的管理和法製方法會讓我們收獲更多。


Thirty years ago we would have said that Leninist capitalism was a contradiction in terms, like fried snowballs. Well, here it is, right in front of our eyes. After another 30 years of Chinese-style incremental reform, crossing the river by feeling the stones as Deng Xiaoping put it, who knows what new political riverbank they will have reached?


30年前我們可能會說列林資本之一之相矛盾，就像油炸雪球一樣，如今，救災我們眼前，他成為現實。再過30年，誰也不知道中國式漸進改革，鄧小平所形容的“摸著石頭過河”會到達什樣的政治河岸。




But the Chinese system is wrestling with many tensions. Public protests are a regular occurrence, and some turn violent: demonstrators recently stormed Communist party offices in Gansu province. And this is before the economic downturn has begun to bite. The test of any political system is how it withstands hard times. The Chinese system, as it has emerged over the past 30 years, has not yet stood that test.



但是中國製度正與各種壓力較力。公共抗議有規律的發生，一些抗議演變成暴力，示威者最近襲擊了甘肅省一個共產黨事務所，這還是在經濟衰退來襲之前。如何度過困難期是對任一政治製度的考驗，30年前浮現的中國體製還沒有經曆過這樣的考驗。


What\'s the alternative to further open-ended, incremental reform? The most likely scenario is one that we have seen elsewhere in the post-communist world. Faced with growing discontent, as rising expectations clash with lowered economic performance, post-communist rulers turn to nationalism to preserve their own power. There\'s every reason to believe this could be popular in China. Even among Chinese people critical of the current system, one seldom finds much sympathy for the Tibetans or for the Muslim population in the northern province of Xinjiang. If a few despairing members of those small minorities turned to violence in one of China\'s big cities, the majority reaction would probably be degrees fiercer than in India.


這種漸進改革的盡頭是什麽呢？最可能的情節是我們在其它共產主義國家看到的一樣。隨著人民不斷上漲的需求與落後的經濟產出之間的衝突，它將麵臨越來越多的不滿。前共產主義國家訴求民族主義以維護其政權。有各種理由相信，這很可能在中國人之間流行。即使中國人中也有批評目前體製的人，人們很少對藏人和北部省份新疆的穆斯林人抱有同情心。如果這些少數民族中一些絕望的人在中國一些大城市使用暴力的話，大部分人的反應可能要比印度人憤怒數倍。


Nationalist netizens in China\'s hyperactive blogosphere are more luridly anti-western than China\'s current rulers. If, in the coming years, the existing system were to fail to meet rising expectations - due to a combination of global recession, American and European resistance to Chinese exports, local corruption, mismanagement and lack of democratic controls - the temptation would grow to salvage legitimacy by turning to a more aggressive nationalism.


中國互聯網上活躍的民族主義網民中反西方的比反現行統治者的多。如果有一天，現行的體製不能滿足人們日益增長的需求——全球衰退，歐美抵製中國出口商品，地方腐敗，管理不善，缺乏民主管理的綜合產物—— 這種誘惑轉變為更具進攻性的國家主義，從而成為一種合法的營救行為。


Even with the wisest leadership in Beijing and Washington, the global rebalancing of power over the next decades will be hard to manage without conflict. Introducing his national security team on Monday, Barack Obama observed that newly assertive powers have put strains on the international system. A former US commander in the Pacific, Admiral William Fallon, recently revealed that there were people in the Pentagon under George W Bush who warned me that you\'d better get ready for the shoot \'em up here, because sooner or later we\'re going to be at war with China.


即使北京華盛頓最賢明的領導者也無法沒有衝突的情況下處理好今後十年內的權利不平衡。周一引薦其國家安全成員的巴拉克奧巴馬表示“新興過自信的國家為國家秩序帶來壓力”。前美國太平洋指揮官 Admiral William Fallon最近透露布什部下五角大樓有人“警告你們最好準備好，遲早我們會跟中國打仗的。”

Susan Shirk, who was one of the senior US officials responsible for China policy in the Clinton administration, argues in her book, China: Fragile Superpower, that American policy should give priority to China\'s external behaviour, precisely to avert the long-term danger of war. But China\'s external behaviour can\'t be separated from its internal dynamics. We cannot afford not to be interested in the progress of its uncharted, incremental economic and political reforms, and we must want them to succeed. Otherwise we\'ll all be Shanghaied.


Susan Shirk， 克林頓政府時期中國事務美國高級官員在其書中說：中國，是個脆弱的超級大國，美國的政策首先要考慮中國的國外行為，特別是轉移長期的戰爭危險。中國的外部行為不可能與其內部事務脫離。我們承擔不起忽略中國不明朗的漸進式政治經濟改革的進步。而且，我們必須要其成功。否這，我們就要被上海化了