大盤一周分析 （The week of 8/11/08） （組圖）

        QQQQ  自8/6  突破鐵箱的上沿，一路狂飆，超過 $48.  S&P 也在昨天突破 1292 的關口。 這波升勢是由於 Strong Dollar 所推動的。 美元在過去的一周裏暴漲了 5%  從71.35 到 76.13.創下了六個月的新高。 這在以往，需要半年的時間。 美元的暴漲，加速了 GOLD 的暴跌，並推動 OIL 連續下降。但美元的強勢，並不是由於 FA 的改進，而是因為 EURO zoon 的衰弱。雖然美元的強勢還會繼續一段時間，但根本問題沒有解決，美元還會走弱。在美元指數破 82 之前，美元長期下降的趨勢並沒有絲毫改變。最近美元有短期到頂的跡象。見下圖。

點圖看大圖
 

    美元短期已經嚴重超買，是到了調整的時候了。 美元的走向，會影響石油的走向，以及Commodity related stocks and sectors. Such as  Base Metal, Energy, Fertilizer, 和黃金的走向。 黃金的指數最終有可能到 760。 那時會是非常好的買入機會。 由於可預見的美元短期到頂，Commodity Related stock, 會短期有反彈。原油在 110 有很強的支撐，USO 也因此會有反彈。這回導致大盤的回落。

再看 QQQQ,  最近的 Sector rotation 使得 QQQQ 變得很強，帶領大盤上漲。QQQQ 在突破 46 以後三天內就達到了下一個箱型的頂部。見圖 44-46  和 46-48 是等高的兩段，突破後的漲幅至少是原來箱型的高度。在達到這個高度後，通常是會做調整。昨天的圖上，已經有了跡象。 
 
點圖看大圖。
  
 48.3 也正好是 Fibo 61.8% retracement 的點位。因此，46 到 48 也許會成為新的箱型。近期 QQQQ 如不能突破，則會回測 46。

S&P 500 由於有Financials 的拖累，是三大指數中比較弱的。突破 1292 後，1320 是下一個阻力帶。 1320 也正好是 Fibo 50%  Retracement 的點位。 在1320 附近，6/26  留下的窗口還未填上。這也許是近期反彈的高點。 由於這周是 OE 周，SPX  Max Pain 剛好在 1300，在其附近有一個 Option Related 阻力帶。OE day,  S&P 很可能收在 1300 附近。


JM2C

[xxq2001]

謝謝。Thanks for sharing.

[waveplayer]

回複xxq2001的評論:The magnitue of inflation may not reaches same degree as 80's, but will be much worse than now. I am not saying the GOLD will go to sky high, but the crisis we are facing is very serious and we have not yet seen the full picture unfolding. My estimate is GOLD could reach 1600 in next two years. So now GOLD is "Cheap"

[xxq2001]

For argument sake, talking about the price of gold in the 80s, that was a period of hyper inflation during Carter administration, when savings interest rate was around 14% and mortgage interest 19-20%. I do not see that is coming back in the near future. Should we use the numbers of those period as a bench mark?

[桐]

waveplayer ，非常感謝您寫的分析報告。幾乎天天都要看你的blog。
我想請問你一下，那個us dollar index 的代碼是什麽？我也想在我係統裏麵看看圖。我是新手，見笑了。謝謝你！

[xxq2001]

Thanks for your response. It is reassuring. I appreciate it.

[wavePlayer]

回複xxq2001的評論:The reason why I am a big bull on Gold is weak dollar and worsening global economy. Since 70's dollar and GOLD disconnected, dollar has lost it value every day. Dollar as currency without back of GOLD can not retain it's value. Especially recent years, FED print too many money, only this year, there is 16% more dollars than last year which is 30 years high. Only GOLD can retain it's value especially under dollar de-value and inflation environment. We have not reach the peak of the GOLD create in 80's If adjust by the inflation factor, the peak GOLD price would beyoung $2000 using current money.

This situation will continue until US economy start to recover. Current strenth in dollar ( it may last up to 4 months) is still short term, it is calm before storm. If you do not use those money, just hold your GLD, you will make money on it.

[xxq2001]

I spoke with a friend who is a jeweller. He said gold is too expensive now and it is not worth the risk to buy or to own it. Looking at the chart, it seems to me that it has gone up a lot in the past year. Do you think the price has gone ahead of itself like the tech bubble? I have already bought some GLD at 94，should I cut or hold?

[wavePlayer]

回複orange2007的評論:those for FX trader or anyone who want to unload dollar because dollare has long term trend to go down further. So sell dollar into strenth. What I saw is: Even dollar's long term down trend is intact, the dollar strenth could last up to 4 to 5 months. It will has ups and downs during this period, but dollar index will go up to 82 and push GOLD down to 760. I think this will generate a good opportunity to buy GOLD for long term investment. GOLD could go as high as 1600 at peak in next two years.

[orange2007]

according to cnbc, it says "a brief rally in the dollar following news of the narrower trade gap in June may have provided an opportunity to sell the currency".
So it supports your point.
But I don't really understand the argument. Any idea?

[wavePlayer]

回複xxq2001的評論: 不是馬上，我說的是長期。看看 FA 就知道了。

[xxq2001]

Why do you think the trend for US$ is getting weaker? Thank you