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正文
The only way to win FDA bet game is to take statistical approach, meaning that one bets multiple FDA events with equal amount each time for the company stocks with similar volitilty.
Since rejection or approvable are much more likely than a clear-cut direct approval, PUT makes more sense. then what factors would contribute to the odds of sucessful bets over time. the following are what i can think of this time:
1. cancer drug or central nernous system (CNS) drug. there are much more failures in this category than sucesses.
2. drugs which have cardiovascular or CNS side effect or any bad things to kids and pregnant women. FDA has least tolerance for this kind of side effects
3. small-mid sized companies since they do not have top notch people, lack of FDA experience, lack of sufficient funds, no track record of FDA credibility etc.
4. companies which delay release of information or intentionally hide information with whatever excuses.
Since rejection or approvable are much more likely than a clear-cut direct approval, PUT makes more sense. then what factors would contribute to the odds of sucessful bets over time. the following are what i can think of this time:
1. cancer drug or central nernous system (CNS) drug. there are much more failures in this category than sucesses.
2. drugs which have cardiovascular or CNS side effect or any bad things to kids and pregnant women. FDA has least tolerance for this kind of side effects
3. small-mid sized companies since they do not have top notch people, lack of FDA experience, lack of sufficient funds, no track record of FDA credibility etc.
4. companies which delay release of information or intentionally hide information with whatever excuses.
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