Susan_wang’s posting highly recommended & my comments
From reading past her posts, many of us would now know that Susan_wang is a successful trader, she is a 高手. Her posts “謹以此文獻給不畏艱險、苦苦探詢股海真理的散戶朋友們” is definitely worth reading, and re-reading. Obviously, her posts is a small portion of what she learned and knows as a successful trader, I hope she and other good traders can write out more. Of course, a lot of what she has learned and mastered, exits only in her soul and mind, difficult to communicate and to be understood. Never-ending practice and self-learning from it is the only key to one’s success.
1. About the stock mkt game
“股市完全是赤裸裸的人性競爭，也就是人的全麵內在素質的競爭，一個人的發財致富就要建立在他人人性的弱點上麵，所以坑蒙拐騙、巧取豪奪，種種手段無所不用其極，你在其它地方見過這麽多隨時隨地玩出種種花樣想算計你錢的騙子和強盜嗎？你看到的欺騙與謊言在哪裏有股市這樣多呢？”
There is no better way for capital mkt to function, as Keynes said, “Fair is foul and foul is fair”.
2. The game is harder and harder
”股道的探索是沒有止境的，不存在最高境界，隻有更高境界”
Behind mkt are generations and generations of investors and traders. To survive, all of them have to improve themselves, and making the game harder as a result. “One has to keep learning until he dies”.
3. About trader themselves
“我們的人生不應僅僅建立在股市賺錢的基礎上，我們應該成為對自己、對周圍的人、對社會、對國家負責任和有用的人。因為從真正意義上講，你隻是記名的財富所有者，財富是屬於整個社會的，隻是現在暫時存在你那裏而已，而財富的多寡和一個人是否幸福無關。股市是資金的獵殺場所，一個人的成功要建立在更多人失敗的基礎上。如果我們僥幸賺到了錢，希望大家這時都能想想這些錢後麵隱藏著別人的汗水、淚水甚至是生命，並在花錢豐富自己生活的同時，能夠用這些錢作一點對社會有益的事情。在這方麵我想，積點德、行點善是對自己有好處的，成為金錢的主人勝過當金錢的奴仆”
By trading, a trader (even the losing one) helps, although unintentionally, facilitating mkt in its capital allocation and economic signal sensing function. To keep his job and to donate out some of his winnings, a trader has to gain first, and consistently gains.
To gain, first step is not to lose.
4. There will be always trading loss, a good trader can gain much more than what he loses on average, bull or bear mkt.
人在絕對意義上講是無法戰勝股市的，因為判斷力和想象無法戰勝事實，你的勝利與否不是由你決定而是由股市決定。我想，最終意義上的高手是那些能夠作到從容進退的人。李文斯頓之所以失敗是因為他迷信自己的力量，不能拒絕股市的誘惑。換句話說，他拿得起來卻放不下，在《股票作手回憶錄》中可以多次看到他放棄了原定的假期急急忙忙殺回到股市的例子。嗬嗬，其實拿得起來容易，放得下才是最難作到的。在股市成功，你必須全身心地關注它，必須付出相當的代價，但你又不能因此就放棄一切。股市沒有生活重要，你必須注意在兩者之間找到平衡點，否則很容易既失去了錢，又失去了生活。
Fundamentally and theoretically, there is quite bit of randomness even in index prices in short term, not to mention price ranges of individual stocks.
This is due to constant changes in FA ”天時”, TA “地利”and investors/traders “人和”, and their different combinations. To beat mkt consistently is difficult, if not impossible.
Trading loss is unavoidable, but it has to be hedged and/or limited, and a lot of less than gain on average.
A good trader has to balance or hedge himself out someway, economically or otherwise in life. In addition to investing, Buffet also operates real business. Few notice that.
5. Again, it is easier to lose than to gain
要想在股市取得成功，必須正確理解股市的本質。你離真相越近，離成功也就越近。最重要的問題：股市是什麽？可能有些人沒有細想過，但任何一個股民都在自覺或不自覺地拿自己的鈔票來回答這個問題。這個問題當然沒有終極的正確答案。在現階段我的理解是：股市是財富的再分配場所，推動股價升降的背後力量是人性，股票的具體價格是通過多、空雙方競爭來實現的。我所有的思想都是圍繞著這句話而發的。在股市偶爾賺錢很容易，但想長時間笑傲股市，必須對以下這幾個問題進行持續地探討。
1． 財富是什麽？它對你自己有何意義？它對別人的實際影響力如何？（真理從來不在字麵之中，但好書能幫你接近正確的答案。推薦書籍《金錢傳》）
2． 你了解自己嗎？你了解別人嗎？你了解人性嗎？（當然，必須有豐富的人生閱曆是前提，推薦書籍《智慧書》）
3．競爭是什麽？你了解它嗎？你在采用什麽方式競爭？結果如何？別人是怎麽競爭的？（推薦書籍《競爭優勢》、《孫子兵法》、《五輪書》、《蘭德決策》。我認為這些書籍的價值遠遠大於股票理論書籍的價值，即使不炒股，我想在現階段的激烈競爭的社會形勢下，這些書也對我們的幫助也是相當大的）。
四．要正確地認識到：在股市競爭獲勝的難度要遠遠大於其它行業。原因在於：1、炒股獲利快速。2、工作不辛苦。3、進入門檻低。這些因素導致了股市裏競爭的強度比在其它行業激烈和殘酷得多。由於人性的缺陷和對競爭規律認識的不足，絕大多數人必定將成為犧牲品。我們必須正視這個嚴峻的現實：股市掙錢很不容易！！但的確著存在著一些長期以來一直比較成功的人。那麽，成功之路到底在何方呢？
About mkt:
Adam Smith, Marx and Keynes all have thought about economic resource allocation mechanism (not directly on stock mkt as we know today) in capitalist society, and its limitation. Philosophically, the most rational goal of economic signal sensing, planning and capital allocation has to be realized in the most irrational way in financial mkt (bonds, equities, commodities and currencies), whose functioning is greatly based on the greed and fear, “foul and fair”. Both Marx and Keynes realized the primitiveness of capitalist economy. The life of capitalism is a lot of longer than Marx predicted though, and Keynes had given the life expectancy of capitalism in the range of a few hundred years.
About trading:
That said, trading is more like a war than anything else in terms of brutality, and it is becoming more popular and more brutal, for at least one reason:
Contrary to common thinking, due to the competition (low returns) and other reasons (gov’t and environmental regulations), more and more business (individual or institutions) come to financial market to invest and compete. If you have any real business experiences (you have to own busines yourself) anywhere now days, you would know how hard it is to find a good “project” to do, not to mention the increasing red tapes from government.
Governments tend to regulate more in real economy than in financial economy. You don’t really have an environmental and social infrastructure to protect in financial economy, although the latter is more brutal: investing or speculating, your are on your own. Although sometimes and somewhere, CBs will pump up asset prices in financial mkt.
So the nature of financial mkt makes it more risky: to lose is more likely than to gain. The key to winning is not to lose first.
6. How to win and trade successfully?
1st level: 心性（類似持久的精神狀態）層次
高手們成功方法不盡相同，隻有探詢他們的心路曆程，我們才能發現他們取勝的關鍵。股市是人性的競爭，在股市能夠長期生存下來的人無疑是強者，高手們真正意義上的強大是他們的心靈，所有高手的共同特點是他們能夠在心性（類似持久的精神狀態）層次上建立起自己獨特的核心競爭力進而在市場上持續獲得競爭優勢，就是說，高手都有屬於他自己的心之刀。但提取他們共同的素質，我們就會發現：
1． 他們都有達觀、積極麵對困難的心境和心態。這屬於人生觀和世界觀的層次。
2． 他們都是有堅定信仰、不盲從的人。
3． 他們勤奮學習，勇於實踐，喜歡麵對挑戰。
4． 他們善於從自己和他人的經驗中學習，從我作起。
5． 他們冷靜、耐心與堅韌。
6． 他們有大局觀、遠見卓識。
7． 他們非常了解自己的缺陷並有有效的製約方法。
8． 他們熱愛股市，願意為自己的事業獻身。
你在巴非特、索羅絲、林奇等高手身上看到這些素質的影子了嗎？你看到這些才是高手真正實力的精華嗎？
“心性”is hard to elaborate and communicate, and even more difficult in English, because you have to experience or have it yourself to know it. I try to give a few examples:
Do you have the will power and confidence to stay with your trading plan in front of onslaught of mkt? Of course, sometimes you just have to change. But very often traders bail out because they are “weak longs” and “weak shorts” in the first place, and they get eaten.
“Will power” comes from you as a person: are you a tough guy? Tough time doesn’t last, but tough man does.
“Confidence” comes partially from your personality, and partially comes from your experience and knowledge.
2nd level: 方法、理論與理念, and 刀招
七、以上就是高手們所具備的共同素質，這是成功之路的必要條件，也是打造高手之刀的必要材料。股市成功之路絕對是因人而異的，每個人都不同，但又有共通的規律可尋。如果認識到股市的競爭是在人性層次的全麵競爭的話，那你必須在心性層次上建立起自己獨特的核心競爭力進而在市場上持續獲得競爭優勢才有可能成功，也就是說，你必須為自己量身定做一把屬於自己的心性之刀，這也是使你能夠在殘酷的金錢殺場裏長期活下去的唯一指望。你現在費時費力研究的所有的方法、理論與理念無非刀招而已。沒有任何一招可以在不同的情況下取不同的敵人的性命，招數的迷信者往往死在他們自認為最了解的招數上。招數的威力在於使用者的實力、對手的實力再加上環境等其它諸條件的配合，事實上天下無敵的招數根本不存在。再普通的招數由高手使出也會倍添神奇，再精巧的招數低手使出來也會破綻百出。長期的競爭靠實力說話，傑出的心性是股市中真實實力的體現，內心是否擁有多重真正長久而且強大的力量是成敗的關鍵。在人性層次上的競爭如果你在心態與性格上沒有優勢並且漏洞百出的話，光靠點花拳繡腿那不是白給嗎？如果你整日沉醉在研究不同的方法、理論與理念中，迷惑在妄圖找到天下無敵的招數以橫掃股市的境地而沒有切實加強你的心性層次修養的話，舍本逐末，焉能不敗？
I would also add experiences to 刀招, and experience is not just “I have been there and done that”, it is also the learning you picked up from it.
3rd: Different combinations of 心性 and and 刀招
八、如果你想成為股林高手的話必須注重培養這些傑出的素質，欠缺一條都會功敗垂成！這些素質對大部分人來說必須經過大風大浪才能養成，這需要漫長的時間和種種磨練，有時你甚至要放棄自己內心最根本的一些信仰才能得到，宛如一個人的曆死重生、脫胎換骨，其痛苦的滋味旁人難以想象。人性的光輝是在苦難中孕育出來的，逆境往往是培養傑出心性最好的老師。這就是股諺所說沒有五到八年的時間、不經曆過大起大落就不可能培養出成熟的股民的真正原因。成熟的真義在於他們心性的成熟，而不是因為他們讀了本天書，或是突然間發現了一些對付股市的絕招。競爭從來不相信眼淚，隻有心性層麵的強者才能在股市裏長期生存下去！在其它行業中還存在著技能、知識等其它方麵的競爭，但股市完全是赤裸裸的人性競爭，也就是人的全麵內在素質的競爭，一個人的發財致富就要建立在他人人性的弱點上麵，所以坑蒙拐騙、巧取豪奪，種種手段無所不用其極，你在其它地方見過這麽多隨時隨地玩出種種花樣想算計你錢的騙子和強盜嗎？你看到的欺騙與謊言在哪裏有股市這樣多呢？最簡單的低買高賣為啥你就是作不到呢？靠聰明靠運氣隻能幫你贏得一時，想這麽一直贏下去你說要靠什麽？
Sometimes I would think Mao, and his two most outstanding generals Lin and Peng, would all be good traders.
Mao is at the highest level of both 心性 and 刀招, needless to say. He is master.
Lin is more a “brain man” than Peng, and Peng is more of 心性 than 刀招. Lin and Peng are all great generals of different combinations of 心性 and 刀招.
For most of us, it’s hard to be Mao, but probably possible to be Lin or Peng. Different combinations of 心性 and 刀招 would all work, but you can’t have gaps, significantly lacking in any one of them. That's one of reasons that economists are not necessarily good investors/traders, they have gaps.
九．嗬嗬，說了這麽多，實際上可以用一句話來概括：就是股市的成功在於能否突破人性的藩籬，超越自我，在心性層次為自己打造出一把剛柔並濟的好刀。這是所有的高手的共同點，如果你沒有自己的刀，即使你花費了再多的時間研究那些高級的刀招，也隻有落得等死或投降的結局。你花盡心思絞盡腦汁想成為與90%輸家不同的幸運兒但最終隻會事與願違，因為這不是能夠在依靠方法、理論、理念等以招數取勝這個層麵上能夠解決的問題，解決的層麵在於心性。在股道探索上想走捷徑是沒有可能的。哈哈，現在你能明白為什麽彼得林奇會說把他的方法教給別人沒用了吧？因為那是他自己的刀法，你沒有一把刀卻妄想用這些刀法要敵人的命豈不是等同於自殺？價值投資理念必須加上巴非特式的信仰和忍耐再加上美國經濟的增長才能換來巴非特式的成功。在任何情況下，成功都源自於天時、地利、人和的完美配合。你唯一可以作的就是培養人和，最大限度地利用地利，耐心等待天時。你可以走上投機的道路，但必須根絕任何投機的心理！
十、高手的刀，其實就是傑出的心性。對我們低手來說，這需要長時間相當痛苦的積累過程才能達到，和一個人智商的高低、理論知識掌握的多寡無關。我相信，隻有你到了擁有高手之心的那一天，你自然同時擁有了高手的眼界。K線雖然還是那些K線，波浪雖然還是那些波浪，但從這一刻起才會真正變得鮮活、生動起來；招數雖然還是那些招數，也隻有從這一刻起才能對你有實際意義。在質變的臨界點沒有達到之前，即便你滿腹經綸、絕頂聰明，被人性弱點蒙蔽的雙眼又怎能看見遍地的黃金呢？“當財富來到的時候，它將來得如此急，如此快，使人奇怪在那艱難的歲月，這些財富都躲到哪裏去了？”這句話現在明白了嗎？一將功成萬骨枯，古來征戰幾人還？隻有戰場才能成就英雄，隻有苦難才能造就傑出的心性。股海無情，要走上投機之路卻沒有一條可以投機的捷徑，我希望有緣人能領會這事實上很簡單的道理，不要緣木求魚、舍本逐末，免得越努力，反而離成功越遙遠，最終落得個聰明反被聰明誤的下場！心性偏頗的人，一心隻想靠投機取巧拿走別人錢財的人，他自己存在股市裏的銀子或遲或早注定要被別人拿去！正所謂六根不淨，何以股為？股道精華，實在股外！
十一、有了自己的刀，你才真正踏上了屬於自己的成功路，但鍛造這把刀卻是任何大師和前輩都無法教你的事情，就好比想學會遊泳，你必須親自下水了解水性，精通流體力學和運動生理學對你不會有太大幫助一樣！通往高手之路是一條漫長而痛苦的蛻變之路，孤獨是你唯一的夥伴，失敗是你最好的老師！百忍成鋼，當心性修煉得有如鏡子般明徹，如流水般圓韌時；當你切切實實生活在不以物喜、不以己悲的寧靜中時；當你發覺胸中不斷流動著“雖千萬人而吾往矣”般的勇氣時，曆經千錘百煉，你的刀就練成了。拔刀四顧、縱橫天下的那一天還會遠嗎？
Back to the philosophy of financial mkt and its players:
For mkt, the most rational is realized with the most irrational;
For players, to become a successful speculator is not to speculate on the way there: we have to constantly work on our soul, will and mind, through practice and theory, one bit and piece at a time, and as long as we live.
