正文
Atop of a “vertical line”
TA is a basically a group of curious and adventurous traders. When they see something like a gap, they always remember it and want to revisit it, and most of the time they manage to get there, digging out a few traits.
Looking at Dow’s 15 minute chart: Dow jumped about 180 points from 12300 to 12480 after Fed’s release yesterday, just about 150 points below 12630, Dow’s opening point on Feb 27, 2007.
“Just walk straight forward, and never look back”, what is the name of that Japanese movie?
Some very emotional and less analytical bulls must have said the same thing to the crowd before 02272007.
Today, Dow closed at 12460, just about 20 points off the “vertical line”.
Atop of this “vertical line”, what do bulls see? Do they see red star atop of Kremlin?
Kremlin is not what it used to be any more. Unlike Deng, Gobie, a 4th or 5th generation of Soviet CP, never got his teeth cut in a real war, and did not know how to handle a Yankee cowboy like Reagan. Real war experience is always important, and trading is an approximate proxy of “war” now days.
Trading wise, bears must have seen that bulls are now atop of a “vertical line”. Having just scrambled for short-covering yesterday, bears took a break today.
There are some bullish animal spirits going around in Asia and Europe as well. Asian markets, although on thin volume, have been up for past 5 sessions. Europe is cheering M&A today.
“So far this year, mergers and acquisitions in Europe have totaled $323 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Deals reached a record $1.4 trillion in 2006.” (Bloomberg.com).
But M&A, particularly private equity group, is more like investing or trading bonds. You always got a coupon, or cash flow in your hands.
Speaking of bonds, “FIFO”s (first in first out) sold to the “LILO” (last in last out) today, for earlier weekend?
So, how bears and bulls are going to play out from the top of “the vertical line”? We can only guess.
More FA
Ben’s put
“For many investors the Fed's message will have been taken as confirmation that historically cheap borrowing that has been driving assets higher in recent years will not be choked off as rapidly as some had started to fear last month” (reuters.com)
A few here in DQ such as Greenfield noted that as well.
“Just at a time when expectations of further euro zone, Japanese and British monetary tightening had many fretting about a squeeze on global liquidity, the Fed's latest soundings suggest the U.S. may well offset that pain.
At the very least, many take comfort that U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appears, like his predecessor Alan Greenspan, to be ready to help with easier money if things get rough or in the event of nasty shocks, like this year's subprime mortgage jolt.
"The market is driven by liquidity and this situation will likely continue," said Hideo Ueki, chief investment officer at UBS Global Asset Management Japan.
“If there is a cloud for investors in all this, it may be that they are focusing on the lower rates side of the ledger rather than on the underlying reason why the Fed had become less hawkish -- a slowing U.S. economy.”
"Broad risk perceptions -- not macro concerns -- have driven the recent round of market pressure," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients earlier this week.
Subprime:
Worries about a financial meltdown by failing U.S. subprime mortgages were eased after two battered lenders of riskier mortgages managed to secure enough money to stay afloat
More TA:
IBD’s point of view
Wednesday's bottoming signal came less than four weeks from the start of the correction. That's unusually brief for a correction to work itself out.
Over the past decade, most successful follow-throughs occurred at least two months from the top. Moreover, follow-throughs occurring four or five weeks after a top were usually unsuccessful.
http://marketreflections.com/
TA is a basically a group of curious and adventurous traders. When they see something like a gap, they always remember it and want to revisit it, and most of the time they manage to get there, digging out a few traits.
Looking at Dow’s 15 minute chart: Dow jumped about 180 points from 12300 to 12480 after Fed’s release yesterday, just about 150 points below 12630, Dow’s opening point on Feb 27, 2007.
“Just walk straight forward, and never look back”, what is the name of that Japanese movie?
Some very emotional and less analytical bulls must have said the same thing to the crowd before 02272007.
Today, Dow closed at 12460, just about 20 points off the “vertical line”.
Atop of this “vertical line”, what do bulls see? Do they see red star atop of Kremlin?
Kremlin is not what it used to be any more. Unlike Deng, Gobie, a 4th or 5th generation of Soviet CP, never got his teeth cut in a real war, and did not know how to handle a Yankee cowboy like Reagan. Real war experience is always important, and trading is an approximate proxy of “war” now days.
Trading wise, bears must have seen that bulls are now atop of a “vertical line”. Having just scrambled for short-covering yesterday, bears took a break today.
There are some bullish animal spirits going around in Asia and Europe as well. Asian markets, although on thin volume, have been up for past 5 sessions. Europe is cheering M&A today.
“So far this year, mergers and acquisitions in Europe have totaled $323 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Deals reached a record $1.4 trillion in 2006.” (Bloomberg.com).
But M&A, particularly private equity group, is more like investing or trading bonds. You always got a coupon, or cash flow in your hands.
Speaking of bonds, “FIFO”s (first in first out) sold to the “LILO” (last in last out) today, for earlier weekend?
So, how bears and bulls are going to play out from the top of “the vertical line”? We can only guess.
More FA
Ben’s put
“For many investors the Fed's message will have been taken as confirmation that historically cheap borrowing that has been driving assets higher in recent years will not be choked off as rapidly as some had started to fear last month” (reuters.com)
A few here in DQ such as Greenfield noted that as well.
“Just at a time when expectations of further euro zone, Japanese and British monetary tightening had many fretting about a squeeze on global liquidity, the Fed's latest soundings suggest the U.S. may well offset that pain.
At the very least, many take comfort that U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appears, like his predecessor Alan Greenspan, to be ready to help with easier money if things get rough or in the event of nasty shocks, like this year's subprime mortgage jolt.
"The market is driven by liquidity and this situation will likely continue," said Hideo Ueki, chief investment officer at UBS Global Asset Management Japan.
“If there is a cloud for investors in all this, it may be that they are focusing on the lower rates side of the ledger rather than on the underlying reason why the Fed had become less hawkish -- a slowing U.S. economy.”
"Broad risk perceptions -- not macro concerns -- have driven the recent round of market pressure," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients earlier this week.
Subprime:
Worries about a financial meltdown by failing U.S. subprime mortgages were eased after two battered lenders of riskier mortgages managed to secure enough money to stay afloat
More TA:
IBD’s point of view
Wednesday's bottoming signal came less than four weeks from the start of the correction. That's unusually brief for a correction to work itself out.
Over the past decade, most successful follow-throughs occurred at least two months from the top. Moreover, follow-throughs occurring four or five weeks after a top were usually unsuccessful.
http://marketreflections.com/
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