正文
IQ vs EQ
Today I made much less than yesterday, plus a mistake at the end. Well, I learned from mistake and separated trading screens further away from each other, so I don’t make the same mistake any more. Likely the mistake only wiped out a small part of my trading profit. Got to pay for any learning.
Much have been talked about IQ or information query and processing in financial market, with theories such as “Random Walk Process” and “Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis-ECMH”.
If I understand correctly, “Random Walk Process”says the past and present information all have been processed by market participants effectively, and future information arrives at market randomly and therefore price in future is hard to predict.
And according to ECMH:
在第一類人，即靠所有的人都明白的公開信息操作的交易者中，信息傳播的速度既快且廣。證券的價格充分吸收了所有的大眾性公開信息，其變動極為迅速、準確地反映了在此類人中所傳播的信息的變動。這一機製最接近於有效資本市場假設理論所提出的弱式有效市場假設。由於這裏的信息對於所有的人都是一樣的，所以沒有人會在這種市場上由於信息的占有而獲取利潤。
在第二類人，即靠專業性公開信息操作的交易者中，信息的來源仍為公開渠道，但信息的內容比第一類市場上的信息大大加深了一步。第一類人所不易看明白的大量信息，如財務報表中的多項數據、百分比的意義，會計報告注釋部分的真實含義等，在第二類人中變成了常規信息。這些信息到了專業機構的分析人員手裏，被迅速地轉化為對股價變動趨勢的判斷而作用於市場，因此市場股價的變動會極為迅速、準確地反映出在這一類人中傳播的信息的變動。在一個機構投資者占主導地位（不管是由於其資金量還是由於其在市場上的交易量）的市場上（如美、歐、日以及相當一些新興的開放市場，如印度、泰國、墨西哥等），由於所有機構都大量使用專業研究人員，市場的有效性相當高。這時即使市場中同時有許多看不懂專業信息的普通投資者，但由於機構交易對股價的強大作用，這些普通投資者的盲目性並不會因此給機構投資人帶來太大的利益，特別是在考慮到機構投資人因獲取分析信息所付出的人力、物力成本後更是如此。第二類人所處的市場最接近有效資本市場假設理論中所設想的半強式有效市場。 (j4 's post)
If we call the first group retail market participants, and the second group professional, then we may have the following:
IQ or information query/processing, retail mostly followings professional, which is well known.
EQ or emotion as a force in decision making impacts both retail and professional.
EQ can also be called “emotional query”, which is really all what TA or traders try to pursue: query and find the weak points in market participants’ emotion, and profit from it.
Today, there is not much emotion running around, particularly after housing data’s release.
Supposedly, “the worst of the housing problem exists in the "new" home sales sector, not in sales of "existing" homes” (briefings.com), and that number comes on Monday. We will see how it goes.
Marketreflections.com
Today I made much less than yesterday, plus a mistake at the end. Well, I learned from mistake and separated trading screens further away from each other, so I don’t make the same mistake any more. Likely the mistake only wiped out a small part of my trading profit. Got to pay for any learning.
Much have been talked about IQ or information query and processing in financial market, with theories such as “Random Walk Process” and “Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis-ECMH”.
If I understand correctly, “Random Walk Process”says the past and present information all have been processed by market participants effectively, and future information arrives at market randomly and therefore price in future is hard to predict.
And according to ECMH:
在第一類人，即靠所有的人都明白的公開信息操作的交易者中，信息傳播的速度既快且廣。證券的價格充分吸收了所有的大眾性公開信息，其變動極為迅速、準確地反映了在此類人中所傳播的信息的變動。這一機製最接近於有效資本市場假設理論所提出的弱式有效市場假設。由於這裏的信息對於所有的人都是一樣的，所以沒有人會在這種市場上由於信息的占有而獲取利潤。
在第二類人，即靠專業性公開信息操作的交易者中，信息的來源仍為公開渠道，但信息的內容比第一類市場上的信息大大加深了一步。第一類人所不易看明白的大量信息，如財務報表中的多項數據、百分比的意義，會計報告注釋部分的真實含義等，在第二類人中變成了常規信息。這些信息到了專業機構的分析人員手裏，被迅速地轉化為對股價變動趨勢的判斷而作用於市場，因此市場股價的變動會極為迅速、準確地反映出在這一類人中傳播的信息的變動。在一個機構投資者占主導地位（不管是由於其資金量還是由於其在市場上的交易量）的市場上（如美、歐、日以及相當一些新興的開放市場，如印度、泰國、墨西哥等），由於所有機構都大量使用專業研究人員，市場的有效性相當高。這時即使市場中同時有許多看不懂專業信息的普通投資者，但由於機構交易對股價的強大作用，這些普通投資者的盲目性並不會因此給機構投資人帶來太大的利益，特別是在考慮到機構投資人因獲取分析信息所付出的人力、物力成本後更是如此。第二類人所處的市場最接近有效資本市場假設理論中所設想的半強式有效市場。 (j4 's post)
If we call the first group retail market participants, and the second group professional, then we may have the following:
IQ or information query/processing, retail mostly followings professional, which is well known.
EQ or emotion as a force in decision making impacts both retail and professional.
EQ can also be called “emotional query”, which is really all what TA or traders try to pursue: query and find the weak points in market participants’ emotion, and profit from it.
Today, there is not much emotion running around, particularly after housing data’s release.
Supposedly, “the worst of the housing problem exists in the "new" home sales sector, not in sales of "existing" homes” (briefings.com), and that number comes on Monday. We will see how it goes.
Marketreflections.com
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