書摘 72（ZT） happy trading!

Not predefining your risk, not cutting your losses, or not systematically taking profits are three of the most common - and usually the most costly - trading errors you can make. Only the best traders have eliminated these errors from their trading. At some point in their careers, they learned to believe without a shred of doubt that anything can happen, and to always account for what they don’t know, for the unexpected.

 

不提前衡量風險、不止損或沒有兌現利潤的係統，這是三個最普遍的——通常也是成本最高的——錯誤。隻有最優秀的交易者會消滅這些錯誤。在他們的職業生涯中，他們有時會毫不懷疑地相信任何事都有可能發生，他們為未知的意想不到的事做了好心理準備。

 

Remember that there are only two forces that cause prices to move: traders who believe the markets are going up, and traders who believe the markets are going down. At any given moment, we can see who has the stronger conviction by observing where the market is now relative to where it was at some previous moment. If a recognizable pattern is present, that pattern may repeat itself, giving us an indication of where the market is headed. This is our edge, something we know.

 

記住，隻有兩種力量會導致價格波動：相信市場會上漲的交易者和相信市場會下跌的交易者。把任意時刻的市場和之前的市場進行對比，我們就能看出市場中哪一方更有信心。如果市場中有明顯的模式，這個模式也許會重複出現，那麽它就會指示市場向哪個方向走。這就是我們的優勢，這是我們知道的因素。

 

But there’s also much that we don’t know, and will never know unless we learn how to read minds. For instance, do we know how many traders may be sitting on the sidelines and about to enter the market? Do we know how many of them want to buy and how many want to sell, or how many shares they are willing to buy or sell? What about the traders whose participation is already reflected in the current price? At any given moment, how many of them are about to change their minds and exit their positions? If they do, how long will they stay out of the market? And if and when they do come back into the market, in what direction will they cast their votes?

 

如果我們不學習如何解讀大眾心理，那麽還有很多東西我們不知道，可能永遠都不知道。比如，我們是否知道有多少交易者正在等待，隨時會進場？我們是否知道有多少人要買入，有多少人要賣出，或者是他們要買賣多少股？如果交易者的行為已經被價格反應了，會如何？在任意時刻，有多少人要改變想法並平倉？如果他們要這麽做，他們會空倉多久？如果他們再次回到市場，他們進場方向如何？

 

These are the constant, never-ending, unknown, hidden variables that are always operating in every market - always! The best traders don’t try to hide from these unknown variables by pretending they don’t exist, nor do they try to intellectualize or rationalize them away through market analysis. Quite the contrary, the best traders take these variables into account, factoring them into every component of their trading regimes.

 

在任何市場，這些持續的、永無止境的、未知的、隱藏的變數總是存在！最優秀的交易者不會通過假裝不知道來隱藏這些未知的變數，他們不會設法讓自己變得更聰明，也不會通過市場分析把這些變數合理化。相反，最優秀的交易者在他們的交易計劃中提前考慮了這些變數，把變數作為一個因素來考慮。

 

For the typical trader, just the opposite is true. He trades from the perspective that what he can’t see, hear, or feel must not exist. What other explanation could account for his behavior? If he really believed in the existence of all the hidden variables that have the potential to act on prices in any given moment, then he would also have to believe that every trade has an uncertain outcome. And if every trade truly has an uncertain outcome, then how could he ever justify or talk himself into not predefining his risk, cutting his losses, or having some systematic way to take profits? Given the circumstances, not adhering to these three fundamental principles is the equivalent of committing financial and emotional suicide.

 

對於典型的交易者來說，隻有相反的情況才是真實的。他認為自己無法看到的、無法聽到的、無法感覺到的東西一定不存在，他根據這個認知做交易。對於他的行為，還有其它解釋嗎？如果他真的相信一些隱藏的變數隨時會影響價格的波動，那麽他就應該相信每筆交易都會有不確定的結果。如果每筆交易都會有不確定的結果，那麽他是如何說服自己不衡量風險、不止損、不係統地兌現利潤？綜合以上，不堅守這條基本的原則就等於是金錢上和情緒上的自殺。

 

Since most traders don’t adhere to these principles, are we to assume that their true underlying motivation for trading is to destroy themselves? It’s certainly possible, but I think the percentage of traders who either consciously or subconsciously want to rid themselves of their money or hurt themselves in some way is extremely small. So, if financial suicide is not the predominant reason, then what could keep someone from doing something that would otherwise make absolute, perfect sense? The answer is quite simple: The typical trader doesn’t predefine his risk, cut his losses, or systematically take profits because the typical trader doesn’t believe it’s necessary. The only reason why he would believe it isn’t necessary is that he believes he already knows what’s going to happen next, based on what he perceives is happening in any given “now moment.” If he already knows, then there’s really no reason to adhere to these principles. Believing, assuming, or thinking that “he knows” will be the cause of virtually every trading error he has the potential to make (with the exception of those errors that are the result of not believing that he deserves the money).

 

因為大部分交易者不遵守這條原則，那麽我們是不是可以認定他們交易的動機就是為了自毀？有這個可能，但我認為大部分交易者有意識或無意識地揮霍錢財或傷害自己的概率還是太小了。如果金錢方麵的自殺不是主要原因，那麽是什麽東西阻止了一個人絕對理性地做事？答案很簡單：典型的交易者不提前衡量風險、不止損、不係統地兌現利潤的原因是他們認為沒有必要。他認為沒有必要的原因是他認為他知道結果是什麽，他根據“現在”就能知道結果。如果他已經知道結果了，那麽實在沒有理由去遵守這些原則。他相信、認為、心想“他知道”是他在交易時可能犯錯的原因（如果他不相信他會賺錢，結果犯錯了，則是例外情況）。

 

Our beliefs about what is true and real are very powerful inner forces. They control every aspect of how we interact with the markets, from our perceptions, interpretations, decisions, actions, and expectations, to our feelings about the results. It’s extremely difficult to act in a way that contradicts what we believe to be true. In some cases, depending on the strength of the belief, it can be next to impossible to do anything that violates the integrity of a belief.

 

我們對真實的信念是一個很強的內部力量。它控製著我們在交易時的方方麵麵，包括對結果的認知、理解、決定、行動、預期和感覺。和我們相信的東西反著做是超級困難的。有時候，根據信念力量力量的大小，我們發現幾乎不可能違背自己的信念去做事。

 

What the typical trader doesn’t realize is that he needs an inner mechanism, in the form of some powerful beliefs, that virtually compels him to perceive the market from a perspective that is always expanding with greater and greater degrees of clarity, and also compels him always act appropriately, given the psychological conditions and the nature of price movement. The most effective and functional trading belief that he can acquire is “anything can happen.” Aside from the fact that it is the truth, it will act as a solid foundation for building every other belief and attitude that he needs to be a successful trader.

 

典型的交易者不知道他需要一個內部機製，這個內部機製就是強有力的信念，這個信念讓他越來越清楚地認識市場，並根據心理狀況和價格波動讓他總是合理地行動。對他來說，最有效，最基本的交易信念就是“任何事都會發生”。除了這個事實，要想成為成功的交易者，這個信念還要成為其它信念和態度的堅定基礎。

 

Without that belief, his mind will automatically, and usually without his conscious awareness, cause him to avoid, block, or rationalize away any information that indicates the market may do something he hasn’t accepted as possible. If he believes that anything is possible, then there’s nothing for his mind to avoid. Because anything includes everything, this belief will act as an expansive force on his perception of the market that will allow him to perceive information that might otherwise have been invisible to him. In essence, he will be making himself available (opening his mind) to perceive more of the possibilities that exist from the markets perspective.

 

沒有這個信念，他的思維會自動地，通常是無意識地讓他避免、阻擋或化解一些信息，而這些信息包含了他認為不可能會發生的事。如果他相信任何事都有可能發生，那麽他就沒有理由去回避。因為任何事包括所有的事，這個信念成為一個力量，讓他看見過去看不見的信息。總之，他會看見市場中更多的可能性（思維開放）並盡量去捕捉機會。

 

Most important, by establishing a belief that anything can happen, he will be training his mind to think in probabilities. This is by far the most essential as well as the most difficult principle for people to grasp and to effectively integrate into their mental systems.

 

更重要的是，一旦有了任何事都會發生的信念，他就會訓練自己的思維去考慮概率。對於交易者來說，這是最精華的，也是最難掌握的原則，這個原則需要有效地融入他們的心理係統。