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本周18-22 SP500等走勢猜測更新辦(THIS WEEK UPDATE)
S&P 500: I still hold my target 1434.11 (as of Jan. 5 of 2007) and if above that, 1455 (on Feb 12th of 2007). I do believe it topped on 11/27/2006 and this is just an extension price rally.
I don’t think SP will have big rally during the next two weeks because we got 8 distribution days.
I keep target for next bear market with 1300-1295 or 1273-1276, starting on Feb 12th of 2007 or early Jan 5-9 of 2007, ending on 15th of May, 2007. At the next year end, we should see SP at 1487.
This week, SP 500 should down to 1407 then start bounce to 1420.
SPY should down to 140.5 then bounce there.
NASDAQ: I keep my target for this round NASDAQ bull market TOP at 2468.42 with top on 11/27/06. And now I am convinced the high 2468-2470 should hold for this year (can’t break). However, I still keep my longer term target for it, please see my post before. Since we got 8 session distribution for NASDAQ also, I logically think we might end the bull market sooner on 1/9/07 rather than 2/12/07 but need further date confirm.
My target for NASDAQ at next round bear market is 2139 till 5/15/07.
From last week’s trading, although NASDAQ did breakout 2468.42 with high 2470.02, I am not convince with my STEP theory and it should be a false break signal and this week, it should down to 2390 then gets some bounce to 2423.
NDX should be downward to 1763 then goes up. QQQQ should pull back to 43.10 or so then bounce there. NQ should be around 1783 then up some.
Dow This week, dow should down to 12285 then starts bounce. DIA should down to 122.7 then rally.
Euro-US $: I still keep bullish for euro and every pull back is a chance to add more.
It should get a rally this week, and I would see 1.3180 or so, then it will continue it’s upward to 1.3480.
US $-Yen: Yen pulled back to above 116.90 to 118.16. I still keep my views on Yen to 113 then 109. This week, this pair should be 116.50 or so.
December Crude oil CL: I didn’t change my bear view on oil downward to 50.47 until May 30 of 2007. My final target for it is 39.97 on 4/9/08.
It should keep rebound to 65.80 this week then I think it will continue downward to 58.
December Natural gas NG: my target for the seasonal bull market is 9.6 (removed 10.6) on Jan 12, 2007. This week, it should get a decent rally to 8.5.
December Gold GC: I keep my neutral to bullish for gold in mid term. My target for this round small bull market will be between 550 and 730.
I would expect it keeps downward to 583 this week and then resume its upward to 700.
December Silver SI: here is my previous words: “I changed my target for silver to 17.25 from 15.02.It will trade to all time high around 15 on 1/24/07 (changed date) and 17.25 on Mar. 29, 2007 and then down to 11.50 on Sep. 5, 2007”.
I think the big selling off was from commerce department which changed my views on it in mid term. It should down to 12.5 then get stable there and then down to 12 or so at the end of this year. And it should get nice rally to 15 in first month of 2007.
December 10 year notes ZN: It should keep its downward to 107-28 this week, then keep its downward to 107 on 1/12/07 and 106 on 2/20/07.
GOOG: I still keep my old words here for goog: “it will breakout 500 to 510 and my target is 479, then down to 369, finally 280 bottom”
This week, it should first test 465. If it can’t hold 465, I would see down to 430-435.
BIDU: here is my old words for it: “the target should be around 139 (also possible 148). Since 128.68 is also big line for MBT, I also think it may top here if it can’t breakout in next few days”
This week, it will test 117 again and 108 should be there then start to rebound near 117 again.
S&P 500: I still hold my target 1434.11 (as of Jan. 5 of 2007) and if above that, 1455 (on Feb 12th of 2007). I do believe it topped on 11/27/2006 and this is just an extension price rally.
I don’t think SP will have big rally during the next two weeks because we got 8 distribution days.
I keep target for next bear market with 1300-1295 or 1273-1276, starting on Feb 12th of 2007 or early Jan 5-9 of 2007, ending on 15th of May, 2007. At the next year end, we should see SP at 1487.
This week, SP 500 should down to 1407 then start bounce to 1420.
SPY should down to 140.5 then bounce there.
NASDAQ: I keep my target for this round NASDAQ bull market TOP at 2468.42 with top on 11/27/06. And now I am convinced the high 2468-2470 should hold for this year (can’t break). However, I still keep my longer term target for it, please see my post before. Since we got 8 session distribution for NASDAQ also, I logically think we might end the bull market sooner on 1/9/07 rather than 2/12/07 but need further date confirm.
My target for NASDAQ at next round bear market is 2139 till 5/15/07.
From last week’s trading, although NASDAQ did breakout 2468.42 with high 2470.02, I am not convince with my STEP theory and it should be a false break signal and this week, it should down to 2390 then gets some bounce to 2423.
NDX should be downward to 1763 then goes up. QQQQ should pull back to 43.10 or so then bounce there. NQ should be around 1783 then up some.
Dow This week, dow should down to 12285 then starts bounce. DIA should down to 122.7 then rally.
Euro-US $: I still keep bullish for euro and every pull back is a chance to add more.
It should get a rally this week, and I would see 1.3180 or so, then it will continue it’s upward to 1.3480.
US $-Yen: Yen pulled back to above 116.90 to 118.16. I still keep my views on Yen to 113 then 109. This week, this pair should be 116.50 or so.
December Crude oil CL: I didn’t change my bear view on oil downward to 50.47 until May 30 of 2007. My final target for it is 39.97 on 4/9/08.
It should keep rebound to 65.80 this week then I think it will continue downward to 58.
December Natural gas NG: my target for the seasonal bull market is 9.6 (removed 10.6) on Jan 12, 2007. This week, it should get a decent rally to 8.5.
December Gold GC: I keep my neutral to bullish for gold in mid term. My target for this round small bull market will be between 550 and 730.
I would expect it keeps downward to 583 this week and then resume its upward to 700.
December Silver SI: here is my previous words: “I changed my target for silver to 17.25 from 15.02.It will trade to all time high around 15 on 1/24/07 (changed date) and 17.25 on Mar. 29, 2007 and then down to 11.50 on Sep. 5, 2007”.
I think the big selling off was from commerce department which changed my views on it in mid term. It should down to 12.5 then get stable there and then down to 12 or so at the end of this year. And it should get nice rally to 15 in first month of 2007.
December 10 year notes ZN: It should keep its downward to 107-28 this week, then keep its downward to 107 on 1/12/07 and 106 on 2/20/07.
GOOG: I still keep my old words here for goog: “it will breakout 500 to 510 and my target is 479, then down to 369, finally 280 bottom”
This week, it should first test 465. If it can’t hold 465, I would see down to 430-435.
BIDU: here is my old words for it: “the target should be around 139 (also possible 148). Since 128.68 is also big line for MBT, I also think it may top here if it can’t breakout in next few days”
This week, it will test 117 again and 108 should be there then start to rebound near 117 again.
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