正文
The success of the pending rescue of the U.S. financial system probably depends as much on the central banks of China and the Middle East as on the U.S. Congress and Federal Reserve.
The U.S. is turning to foreign governments and other overseas investors to buy a good chunk of the as much as $700 billion in Treasury debt that would be sold to finance the bailout. Foreign investors are also needed to shore up the depleted capital of the nation's financial institutions, as evidenced by the plan of Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to buy a large stake in Morgan Stanley, which is weighed down by bad debt and market distrust.
This is a bittersweet moment in U.S. economic history. In one sense, the growing importance of foreign cash represents the triumph of a half-century of U.S. proselytizing for a global financial system in which money flows from those who have it to those who need it, regardless of borders. But it is also an unmistakable sign of U.S. economic decline. The global financial system the U.S. designed anticipated that American banks and financial firms would be the world's financial lifeguards; now those institutions are like exhausted swimmers a stroke or two away from drowning.
The financial crisis makes clear how much the interests of foreign lenders have become a top concern in Washington. A big reason the Fed and Treasury stepped in to rescue mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, say U.S. financial officials, was to reassure China, which holds roughly $1 trillion in U.S. debt, that U.S. securities were safe. 'Superpowers do not normally ask their diplomats to reassure other nations on questions of creditworthiness,' says former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers.
Just 10 years after the U.S. oversaw the financial rescue of Asian nations, the U.S. now risks becoming the world's largest subprime borrower. This change of fortune has been hard to swallow politically. In his televised address Thursday, President George W. Bush blamed the current financial crisis on the 'massive amount of money [that] flowed into the United States from investors abroad,' rather than on greedy decisions by U.S. mortgage lenders and borrowers. In Friday's presidential debate, both candidates railed against U.S. economic dependence on China.
Powerful nations have been humbled before by an overdependence on foreign capital. Council on Foreign Relations economist Brad Setser notes that Britain was forced to end its seizure of the Suez Canal in 1956 because of U.S. opposition. Washington's main weapon: its threat to slash financial support for London, whose economy had been battered by World War II.
The U.S. isn't in remotely as bad shape as postwar Britain. It still is the world's sole military superpower, and the U.S. currency is still dominant. The latter is important because even if foreign holdings of U.S. debt grow, as is likely, the U.S. alone prints the dollars needed to pay those debts.
Even so, foreign lenders have a great deal of sway. If they were to dump U.S. government debt -- or be unwilling to buy more -- the interest rates needed to attract buyers of Treasurys would soar. The already fragile U.S. economy would absorb yet another hit.
China, Saudi Arabia and other big foreign holders are unlikely to take antidollar measures precisely because they own so much U.S. debt. To the extent the dollar declines, so does the value of those nations' holdings. Mr. Summers calls this situation 'the financial balance of terror.'
But it is naive to assume that this 'balance' will protect U.S. interests indefinitely. Senior Chinese economists have voiced growing dismay about the outlook for the dollar, and the introduction of an additional $700 billion in debt might drive the currency's value down further, at least in the short term. 'I think foreigners are being taken for a ride by the U.S. government,' says Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai.
Sovereign-wealth funds -- huge government investment funds -- have largely sat on their hands rather than buy additional stakes in U.S. financial firms. China Investment Corp., for instance, has been wary of increasing its investment in Morgan Stanley after it was criticized sharply at home for taking equity stakes in U.S. financial companies that have nose-dived.
In the Middle East, too, state investment funds in Kuwait, Qatar and Abu Dhabi say they have no plans to jump to the rescue of ailing Wall Street banks. In one hopeful sign for the U.S., some smaller state funds are looking for bargains in real estate, finance and insurance. 'For investors that have the liquidity and have patient capital, I can see good opportunities,' said Talal Al-Zain, chief executive of Bahrain's $10 billion fund, Mumtalakat.
The U.S. economy has managed to grow in recent years, even though Americans don't save much and the government has run huge deficits, because foreigners kept lending. The same was true in the 1980s. Now the U.S. needs foreign capitals to keep lending. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank, says the Treasury will have to stage a 'road show' to explain the rescue plan to overseas lenders who may be considering euro investments instead.
Domestically, the reliance on foreign money means a loss of policy autonomy that Americans are simply going to have to get used to. Part of the accommodation is already occurring. The controversy over investments by sovereign-wealth funds has been reversed. Last year, lawmakers worried that the funds would gain political influence by investments in U.S. companies; now U.S. policy makers are worried that they won't buy new stakes. Efforts to erect restrictions against foreign trade may also lose momentum. The U.S. needs the world's money more than it thought it would and won't want to rile potential lenders.
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美國現在正巴望著外國政府和海外投資者能購買規模高達7000億美元的國債，以此為救助計劃提供資金。海外投資者還需要對嚴重缺乏資金的美國金融機構加以支持，正如日本三菱UFJ金融集團(MUFG)收購摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)大筆股權那樣，眼下後者正承受著壞帳以及市場不信任之苦。
縱觀美國的經濟史，當前可謂一個悲喜交加的時刻。一方麵，外資重要性的增強宣告了美國的勝利──美國在長達半個世紀的時間裏主張塑造一個能衝破國界藩籬、保證資本從所有國流向需求國的全球金融係統的努力終告成功；而另一方麵，這也是一個明確無誤的信號──美國經濟正在走向衰敗。由美國設計的全球金融係統原本預計美國的銀行以及金融機構會成為世界金融係統的守衛者，而現在，這些機構更像一群精疲力盡、偶爾撲騰兩下以免溺斃的遊泳者。
此次金融危機清楚地表明外國債權人的利益在華府心目中已躍升為頭等大事。美國金融界官員表示，Fed和財政部決定出手救助抵押貸款巨頭房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的一個重要原因就是為了安慰持有近1萬億美國國債的中國，表明美國證券是安全的。美國前財長勞倫斯•薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)說，大國通常不會要求自己的外交官就自己的信譽度問題安撫其他國家。
僅僅在十年前，美國還負責監督對亞洲金融危機受害國的救助，而今自己就可能淪落為全球最大的次級債借貸國。如此命運轉折自然為政界所難容。美國總統布什在上周四的一次電視講話中稱當前金融危機的罪魁禍首是海外投資者投入美國的大量資金、而非美國抵押貸款放貸人及借貸人的貪婪決定。在上周五的總統候選人辯論中，兩黨提名人均將槍口對準了美國在經濟上對中國的依賴。
曆史上，超級大國也曾因對海外資本的過度依賴而低下頭。美國外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)經濟學家布拉德•塞瑟爾(Brad Setser)指出，由於美國反對，英國被迫於1956年歸還了蘇伊士運河(Suez Canal)的控製權。當時美國手中主要的武器就是威脅削減對英國的資金支持，而二戰結束後英國的經濟已是百孔千瘡。
目前美國的經濟狀況還不至於象戰後的英國那麽遭。美國仍是當今世界唯一的軍事超級大國，美元仍是主要貨幣。後者之所以重要是因為即便外國對美國國債的持有量大增（目前看很有可能這樣），美國隻需印製還債的美鈔即可。
可是就算這樣，海外債主仍能施加重大影響。如果它們大舉拋售美國國債、或不願繼續買入，那麽用以吸引買家的國債收益率將大幅上揚。這將令本已脆弱的美國經濟雪上加霜。
中國、沙特以及美國國債的其他海外大債主不太可能采取打壓美元的政策，因為它們畢竟手中握有大量美國國債。美元跌得有多狠，它們的資產資產就縮水得有多厲害。薩默斯將這種狀況形容為“金融業的恐怖製衡”。
不過，認為這種平衡會永遠地保衛美國的利益未免天真。中國高級經濟學家均談到了美元愈顯黯淡的前景，並指出7000億美元國債的推出至少會在短期內進一步壓低美元匯率。上海經濟學家謝國忠(Andy Xie)說，我認為外國投資者是被迫上了美國政府的賊船了。
目前，監管著巨額政府投資資金的主權財富基金基本上是持觀望態度，而沒有追加對美國金融機構的持股量。舉例來說，中投公司(China Investment Corp.)就在增加對摩根士丹利投資一事上分外小心，因為此前它投資的美國金融機構股價出現了大幅跳水，中投因此在國內遭到了猛批。
在中東，情況亦是如此。科威特、卡特爾以及阿布紮比的主權財富基金均表示無意挺身而出營救華爾街投行。令美國看到一線曙光的是一些規模不大的主權財富基金目前正在尋求對美國的地產、金融以及保險業資產進行逢低吸納。巴林主權財富基金Mumtalakat的首席執行長塔拉爾•阿爾讚恩(Talal Al-Zain)說，對那些持有現金和耐心資本的投資者來說，我看到了投資良機。Mumtalakat管理著100億美元的資產。
雖然美國人儲蓄水平不高、政府背負著龐大赤字，但在外國投資者持續提供資金的情況下，過去幾年中美國經濟仍實現了增長，這和上世紀80年代時的情況如出一轍。現在美國需要外國資本繼續“輸血”。華盛頓智庫彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)負責人弗萊德•博格斯坦(Fred Bergsten)說，財政部必須進行“路演”，來向或許正考慮轉投歐元資產的海外貸款人解釋政府的救助計劃。
在美國國內。對外資的依賴意味著美國政治自主權的喪失，而美國人唯有學會適應它。這樣的妥協在一定程度上已經發生了。和過去相比，圍繞著主權財富基金的討論已經掉轉了船頭。去年，議員們擔心的這些主權基金會通過對美投資獲取政治影響力，而今議員們擔心的則是它們不肯再掏錢怎麽辦。那些旨在建立外貿屏障的努力可能也將喪失動能。美國對外資的渴求程度是它始料未及的，而且美國也不願惹惱這些潛在“財神”。
--------http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080929/fea130118.asp?source=mostpopular1
The U.S. is turning to foreign governments and other overseas investors to buy a good chunk of the as much as $700 billion in Treasury debt that would be sold to finance the bailout. Foreign investors are also needed to shore up the depleted capital of the nation's financial institutions, as evidenced by the plan of Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to buy a large stake in Morgan Stanley, which is weighed down by bad debt and market distrust.
This is a bittersweet moment in U.S. economic history. In one sense, the growing importance of foreign cash represents the triumph of a half-century of U.S. proselytizing for a global financial system in which money flows from those who have it to those who need it, regardless of borders. But it is also an unmistakable sign of U.S. economic decline. The global financial system the U.S. designed anticipated that American banks and financial firms would be the world's financial lifeguards; now those institutions are like exhausted swimmers a stroke or two away from drowning.
The financial crisis makes clear how much the interests of foreign lenders have become a top concern in Washington. A big reason the Fed and Treasury stepped in to rescue mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, say U.S. financial officials, was to reassure China, which holds roughly $1 trillion in U.S. debt, that U.S. securities were safe. 'Superpowers do not normally ask their diplomats to reassure other nations on questions of creditworthiness,' says former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers.
Just 10 years after the U.S. oversaw the financial rescue of Asian nations, the U.S. now risks becoming the world's largest subprime borrower. This change of fortune has been hard to swallow politically. In his televised address Thursday, President George W. Bush blamed the current financial crisis on the 'massive amount of money [that] flowed into the United States from investors abroad,' rather than on greedy decisions by U.S. mortgage lenders and borrowers. In Friday's presidential debate, both candidates railed against U.S. economic dependence on China.
Powerful nations have been humbled before by an overdependence on foreign capital. Council on Foreign Relations economist Brad Setser notes that Britain was forced to end its seizure of the Suez Canal in 1956 because of U.S. opposition. Washington's main weapon: its threat to slash financial support for London, whose economy had been battered by World War II.
The U.S. isn't in remotely as bad shape as postwar Britain. It still is the world's sole military superpower, and the U.S. currency is still dominant. The latter is important because even if foreign holdings of U.S. debt grow, as is likely, the U.S. alone prints the dollars needed to pay those debts.
Even so, foreign lenders have a great deal of sway. If they were to dump U.S. government debt -- or be unwilling to buy more -- the interest rates needed to attract buyers of Treasurys would soar. The already fragile U.S. economy would absorb yet another hit.
China, Saudi Arabia and other big foreign holders are unlikely to take antidollar measures precisely because they own so much U.S. debt. To the extent the dollar declines, so does the value of those nations' holdings. Mr. Summers calls this situation 'the financial balance of terror.'
But it is naive to assume that this 'balance' will protect U.S. interests indefinitely. Senior Chinese economists have voiced growing dismay about the outlook for the dollar, and the introduction of an additional $700 billion in debt might drive the currency's value down further, at least in the short term. 'I think foreigners are being taken for a ride by the U.S. government,' says Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai.
Sovereign-wealth funds -- huge government investment funds -- have largely sat on their hands rather than buy additional stakes in U.S. financial firms. China Investment Corp., for instance, has been wary of increasing its investment in Morgan Stanley after it was criticized sharply at home for taking equity stakes in U.S. financial companies that have nose-dived.
In the Middle East, too, state investment funds in Kuwait, Qatar and Abu Dhabi say they have no plans to jump to the rescue of ailing Wall Street banks. In one hopeful sign for the U.S., some smaller state funds are looking for bargains in real estate, finance and insurance. 'For investors that have the liquidity and have patient capital, I can see good opportunities,' said Talal Al-Zain, chief executive of Bahrain's $10 billion fund, Mumtalakat.
The U.S. economy has managed to grow in recent years, even though Americans don't save much and the government has run huge deficits, because foreigners kept lending. The same was true in the 1980s. Now the U.S. needs foreign capitals to keep lending. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank, says the Treasury will have to stage a 'road show' to explain the rescue plan to overseas lenders who may be considering euro investments instead.
Domestically, the reliance on foreign money means a loss of policy autonomy that Americans are simply going to have to get used to. Part of the accommodation is already occurring. The controversy over investments by sovereign-wealth funds has been reversed. Last year, lawmakers worried that the funds would gain political influence by investments in U.S. companies; now U.S. policy makers are worried that they won't buy new stakes. Efforts to erect restrictions against foreign trade may also lose momentum. The U.S. needs the world's money more than it thought it would and won't want to rile potential lenders.
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能
(譯文)否成功拯救美國金融係統不僅取決於美國國會和聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)，中國和中東各國央行的態度也同樣重要。美國現在正巴望著外國政府和海外投資者能購買規模高達7000億美元的國債，以此為救助計劃提供資金。海外投資者還需要對嚴重缺乏資金的美國金融機構加以支持，正如日本三菱UFJ金融集團(MUFG)收購摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)大筆股權那樣，眼下後者正承受著壞帳以及市場不信任之苦。
縱觀美國的經濟史，當前可謂一個悲喜交加的時刻。一方麵，外資重要性的增強宣告了美國的勝利──美國在長達半個世紀的時間裏主張塑造一個能衝破國界藩籬、保證資本從所有國流向需求國的全球金融係統的努力終告成功；而另一方麵，這也是一個明確無誤的信號──美國經濟正在走向衰敗。由美國設計的全球金融係統原本預計美國的銀行以及金融機構會成為世界金融係統的守衛者，而現在，這些機構更像一群精疲力盡、偶爾撲騰兩下以免溺斃的遊泳者。
此次金融危機清楚地表明外國債權人的利益在華府心目中已躍升為頭等大事。美國金融界官員表示，Fed和財政部決定出手救助抵押貸款巨頭房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的一個重要原因就是為了安慰持有近1萬億美國國債的中國，表明美國證券是安全的。美國前財長勞倫斯•薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)說，大國通常不會要求自己的外交官就自己的信譽度問題安撫其他國家。
僅僅在十年前，美國還負責監督對亞洲金融危機受害國的救助，而今自己就可能淪落為全球最大的次級債借貸國。如此命運轉折自然為政界所難容。美國總統布什在上周四的一次電視講話中稱當前金融危機的罪魁禍首是海外投資者投入美國的大量資金、而非美國抵押貸款放貸人及借貸人的貪婪決定。在上周五的總統候選人辯論中，兩黨提名人均將槍口對準了美國在經濟上對中國的依賴。
曆史上，超級大國也曾因對海外資本的過度依賴而低下頭。美國外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)經濟學家布拉德•塞瑟爾(Brad Setser)指出，由於美國反對，英國被迫於1956年歸還了蘇伊士運河(Suez Canal)的控製權。當時美國手中主要的武器就是威脅削減對英國的資金支持，而二戰結束後英國的經濟已是百孔千瘡。
目前美國的經濟狀況還不至於象戰後的英國那麽遭。美國仍是當今世界唯一的軍事超級大國，美元仍是主要貨幣。後者之所以重要是因為即便外國對美國國債的持有量大增（目前看很有可能這樣），美國隻需印製還債的美鈔即可。
可是就算這樣，海外債主仍能施加重大影響。如果它們大舉拋售美國國債、或不願繼續買入，那麽用以吸引買家的國債收益率將大幅上揚。這將令本已脆弱的美國經濟雪上加霜。
中國、沙特以及美國國債的其他海外大債主不太可能采取打壓美元的政策，因為它們畢竟手中握有大量美國國債。美元跌得有多狠，它們的資產資產就縮水得有多厲害。薩默斯將這種狀況形容為“金融業的恐怖製衡”。
不過，認為這種平衡會永遠地保衛美國的利益未免天真。中國高級經濟學家均談到了美元愈顯黯淡的前景，並指出7000億美元國債的推出至少會在短期內進一步壓低美元匯率。上海經濟學家謝國忠(Andy Xie)說，我認為外國投資者是被迫上了美國政府的賊船了。
目前，監管著巨額政府投資資金的主權財富基金基本上是持觀望態度，而沒有追加對美國金融機構的持股量。舉例來說，中投公司(China Investment Corp.)就在增加對摩根士丹利投資一事上分外小心，因為此前它投資的美國金融機構股價出現了大幅跳水，中投因此在國內遭到了猛批。
在中東，情況亦是如此。科威特、卡特爾以及阿布紮比的主權財富基金均表示無意挺身而出營救華爾街投行。令美國看到一線曙光的是一些規模不大的主權財富基金目前正在尋求對美國的地產、金融以及保險業資產進行逢低吸納。巴林主權財富基金Mumtalakat的首席執行長塔拉爾•阿爾讚恩(Talal Al-Zain)說，對那些持有現金和耐心資本的投資者來說，我看到了投資良機。Mumtalakat管理著100億美元的資產。
雖然美國人儲蓄水平不高、政府背負著龐大赤字，但在外國投資者持續提供資金的情況下，過去幾年中美國經濟仍實現了增長，這和上世紀80年代時的情況如出一轍。現在美國需要外國資本繼續“輸血”。華盛頓智庫彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)負責人弗萊德•博格斯坦(Fred Bergsten)說，財政部必須進行“路演”，來向或許正考慮轉投歐元資產的海外貸款人解釋政府的救助計劃。
在美國國內。對外資的依賴意味著美國政治自主權的喪失，而美國人唯有學會適應它。這樣的妥協在一定程度上已經發生了。和過去相比，圍繞著主權財富基金的討論已經掉轉了船頭。去年，議員們擔心的這些主權基金會通過對美投資獲取政治影響力，而今議員們擔心的則是它們不肯再掏錢怎麽辦。那些旨在建立外貿屏障的努力可能也將喪失動能。美國對外資的渴求程度是它始料未及的，而且美國也不願惹惱這些潛在“財神”。
--------http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080929/fea130118.asp?source=mostpopular1
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