正文
it\'s about being honest, truthful, and considerate of others. I\'ve been right and wrong a few times in the past:
2007-08-06 10:13:48, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=7065:
...早在前幾年，有心或無意地買了一個或幾個房子的人是非常幸運的，碰巧趕上了一波很強的 Real Estate up-cycle，決大多數人都賺到了錢，但這一事實不等於將來這樣做就可以同樣賺錢。對待任何 cyclical business 決不能在過去和現在之間劃上一條直線、然後延伸到將來。
有人或許說，我買的房子出租，有 POSITIVE CASH FLOW，所以沒問題。這種說法就類似於說我買的股票有 DIVIDENDS，所以不會虧一樣。其實，不管是股票還是房地產，在高位買入總歸要賠錢。因此，真正成功的 RE 投資者要把大部分注意力放在 TIMING THE MARKET 上，而不是眼前的 CASH FLOW 等細節上。買來自己住的房子要考慮 Location, location, location，出於投資目的買賣房地產要時刻考慮的是 Timing, timing, timing.
但買賣房地產的大原則卻是與股票投資類似的，一種方法是做 Contrarian, 就是在房地產市場爛得不能再爛的時候進場買入，等房地產市場熱得發燙的時候賣出退場。當然不太可能買到低、賣在頂，但大體上的 TIMING 對了就夠賺的了。另外一種方法是當一個地區的房地產剛剛開始發熱的時候進場，等熱氣有變涼的跡象時盡快退場，這類似於做股票時 Momentum 的方法，這種方法的風險比做 Contrarian 要大(尤其是賣出時)。
2007-08-13 06:29:28, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=17622:
房地產長期來看，就是個通貨膨脹的一個 PROXY 而已，和其它的 COMMODITIES 相比沒有什麽太大的區別(當然可以住) ，誰能查一查黃金與房地產哪個長期增值率高？IvyLi 的數據和其它來源的數據一樣，房地產長期增值率就是和通貨膨脹率差不多。這裏麵的 volatility 不比SP500低多少，假如你經曆了八十年代的美國 SAVINGS&LOANS CRISIS 引發的房地產政府大拍賣，你的想法就不同了，當時我朋友在 HOUSTON 城邊兒上花五萬美元買了兩個政府拍賣的房子。隻是你現在經曆的是美國曆史上最牛的房市，現在它很可能正處在開始回歸曆史平均的起點。
when I wrote those, I fully expected no one would listen, since the masters of RE on this board were pumping people to buy top-priced houses during the very hey days of 2007.
2007-11-23 12:13:58, 經濟衰退將至？
2008-01-15 16:46:25, 經濟衰退... 準備好了嗎？
2008-05-12 20:02:25, 房地產價格的徹底崩潰: 這一切都預示著一件事 - 通貨膨脹率的高漲
well, I was right on the conclusion of a recession coming, but very wrong on inflation. what happened was the opposite - deflation.
the fact is, no one should take things off a bulletin board seriously without doing his/her homework. generalized statements from personal experiences are not always suitable for others, since everyone\'s situation and knowledge level are so different.
one person made money on housing, he/she should not tell everyone buy houses any time, anywhere. another person lost money in stock market, he/she should not conclude that stock market is not good for everyone. someone with more knowledge or better luck may have made quite a bit from it.
I firmly believe investment education should be the #1 function of a public investment bulletin board. giving out specific tips on speculative stocks or houses to the general public is wrong, since less informed audiences may put his/her hard-earned money into those and lost big. making money in stocks is especially hard because it needs a complete plan, not only on what stock to buy, but also on how much to buy, and where to take losses or profits. how could anyone know other people\'s financial situation or temperament to make blind recommendations?
it is especially distasteful to push and pump specific stocks or housing purchases constantly to the public that he/she has a personal interests in. so my suggestion to masters or would-be masters or anyone for that matter is to share your investment knowledge and experiences, refrain from spreading or listening to specific tips. it doesn\'t benefit anyone but the originator.
just my two cents, worth exactly that much ...
2007-08-06 10:13:48, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=7065:
...早在前幾年，有心或無意地買了一個或幾個房子的人是非常幸運的，碰巧趕上了一波很強的 Real Estate up-cycle，決大多數人都賺到了錢，但這一事實不等於將來這樣做就可以同樣賺錢。對待任何 cyclical business 決不能在過去和現在之間劃上一條直線、然後延伸到將來。
有人或許說，我買的房子出租，有 POSITIVE CASH FLOW，所以沒問題。這種說法就類似於說我買的股票有 DIVIDENDS，所以不會虧一樣。其實，不管是股票還是房地產，在高位買入總歸要賠錢。因此，真正成功的 RE 投資者要把大部分注意力放在 TIMING THE MARKET 上，而不是眼前的 CASH FLOW 等細節上。買來自己住的房子要考慮 Location, location, location，出於投資目的買賣房地產要時刻考慮的是 Timing, timing, timing.
但買賣房地產的大原則卻是與股票投資類似的，一種方法是做 Contrarian, 就是在房地產市場爛得不能再爛的時候進場買入，等房地產市場熱得發燙的時候賣出退場。當然不太可能買到低、賣在頂，但大體上的 TIMING 對了就夠賺的了。另外一種方法是當一個地區的房地產剛剛開始發熱的時候進場，等熱氣有變涼的跡象時盡快退場，這類似於做股票時 Momentum 的方法，這種方法的風險比做 Contrarian 要大(尤其是賣出時)。
2007-08-13 06:29:28, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=17622:
房地產長期來看，就是個通貨膨脹的一個 PROXY 而已，和其它的 COMMODITIES 相比沒有什麽太大的區別(當然可以住) ，誰能查一查黃金與房地產哪個長期增值率高？IvyLi 的數據和其它來源的數據一樣，房地產長期增值率就是和通貨膨脹率差不多。這裏麵的 volatility 不比SP500低多少，假如你經曆了八十年代的美國 SAVINGS&LOANS CRISIS 引發的房地產政府大拍賣，你的想法就不同了，當時我朋友在 HOUSTON 城邊兒上花五萬美元買了兩個政府拍賣的房子。隻是你現在經曆的是美國曆史上最牛的房市，現在它很可能正處在開始回歸曆史平均的起點。
when I wrote those, I fully expected no one would listen, since the masters of RE on this board were pumping people to buy top-priced houses during the very hey days of 2007.
2007-11-23 12:13:58, 經濟衰退將至？
2008-01-15 16:46:25, 經濟衰退... 準備好了嗎？
2008-05-12 20:02:25, 房地產價格的徹底崩潰: 這一切都預示著一件事 - 通貨膨脹率的高漲
well, I was right on the conclusion of a recession coming, but very wrong on inflation. what happened was the opposite - deflation.
the fact is, no one should take things off a bulletin board seriously without doing his/her homework. generalized statements from personal experiences are not always suitable for others, since everyone\'s situation and knowledge level are so different.
one person made money on housing, he/she should not tell everyone buy houses any time, anywhere. another person lost money in stock market, he/she should not conclude that stock market is not good for everyone. someone with more knowledge or better luck may have made quite a bit from it.
I firmly believe investment education should be the #1 function of a public investment bulletin board. giving out specific tips on speculative stocks or houses to the general public is wrong, since less informed audiences may put his/her hard-earned money into those and lost big. making money in stocks is especially hard because it needs a complete plan, not only on what stock to buy, but also on how much to buy, and where to take losses or profits. how could anyone know other people\'s financial situation or temperament to make blind recommendations?
it is especially distasteful to push and pump specific stocks or housing purchases constantly to the public that he/she has a personal interests in. so my suggestion to masters or would-be masters or anyone for that matter is to share your investment knowledge and experiences, refrain from spreading or listening to specific tips. it doesn\'t benefit anyone but the originator.
just my two cents, worth exactly that much ...
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