正文
1, on Chinese stock market,
I'm still bullish on Chinese stocks, mostly FXI components such as SNP LFC etc. A share to me seems a bit overvalued personally, noticeably on the valuation gap between A and H shares. In a couple of exchanges with 左右逢源, I mentioned I've kind of lost interest in the A market even it may very well on its way to 5000 or 8000.(http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=backhome&MsgID=122866)However I recently had a talk with one friend who works in a fundamental-based mutual fund company, and she is still quite comfortable with valuation there, so I guess it's really a matter to everybody's own taste.
imho the difference of A and H will eventually disappear, and probably quite soon. It would be exceedingly irresponsible, if not morally wrong, for Chinese gov't to let its old retired people buying Chinese blue chips at 50% more expensive price than generally better off people around the world.
2, rag to rich stories
having witnessed gold to sand in Nasdaq 2000, and then sand to gold in Chinese stocks, in oil, in minery, in steel industry, and most recently in some of the US auto parts companies that in theory nobody should like, it has occurred to me that one of the best strategy, in terms of risk adjusted return, is to stay with value. Value will outlast time, in fact, value is on the same side with time, time enhances value. Value will outlast fashion, and in many cases, value will outlast smarts.
3, my own next target,
today I had a chance to talk with a contractor who turns out coming from Namibia. What he said strikes me. He said the civil war stopped there. There is now a new president. And a big renewed focus on construction and development. In a flash I realized how similar that situation is to China in the 80s.
coming here I started to some research on Africa markets. Results are half encouraging half deflating. For example,
http://www.orbisfunds.com/graphs.aspx?fundid=OAER¤cyid=ZAR&period=INCEPTION. What it says is that it's indeed a great investment opportunity, but a lot of people probably have discovered the new resource-rich continent already. As many other things in life, I was never the first one. But I'm not discouraged. If the world is truly converging and being equalized, then there is no reason not to hope that China's success may be duplicated. So the direction is set, research will go on.
I'm still bullish on Chinese stocks, mostly FXI components such as SNP LFC etc. A share to me seems a bit overvalued personally, noticeably on the valuation gap between A and H shares. In a couple of exchanges with 左右逢源, I mentioned I've kind of lost interest in the A market even it may very well on its way to 5000 or 8000.(http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=backhome&MsgID=122866)However I recently had a talk with one friend who works in a fundamental-based mutual fund company, and she is still quite comfortable with valuation there, so I guess it's really a matter to everybody's own taste.
imho the difference of A and H will eventually disappear, and probably quite soon. It would be exceedingly irresponsible, if not morally wrong, for Chinese gov't to let its old retired people buying Chinese blue chips at 50% more expensive price than generally better off people around the world.
2, rag to rich stories
having witnessed gold to sand in Nasdaq 2000, and then sand to gold in Chinese stocks, in oil, in minery, in steel industry, and most recently in some of the US auto parts companies that in theory nobody should like, it has occurred to me that one of the best strategy, in terms of risk adjusted return, is to stay with value. Value will outlast time, in fact, value is on the same side with time, time enhances value. Value will outlast fashion, and in many cases, value will outlast smarts.
3, my own next target,
today I had a chance to talk with a contractor who turns out coming from Namibia. What he said strikes me. He said the civil war stopped there. There is now a new president. And a big renewed focus on construction and development. In a flash I realized how similar that situation is to China in the 80s.
coming here I started to some research on Africa markets. Results are half encouraging half deflating. For example,
http://www.orbisfunds.com/graphs.aspx?fundid=OAER¤cyid=ZAR&period=INCEPTION. What it says is that it's indeed a great investment opportunity, but a lot of people probably have discovered the new resource-rich continent already. As many other things in life, I was never the first one. But I'm not discouraged. If the world is truly converging and being equalized, then there is no reason not to hope that China's success may be duplicated. So the direction is set, research will go on.
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