牛經滄海投資感悟生活點滴
吾言吾所思，君聞君所願。【聲明】不作投資建議。
博文
(2008-08-27 11:21:56)
Bothforshorttermflipandmid-termswingtrade.
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(2008-08-01 11:06:27)
MSwrotedownandcutbackaggressivelylastyear.Thosepreventivemeasurespayoffnow.ThiscontraststoLEH,whichjuststartedbigwrite-downinitslastQtrlyreport.
MSwillsolidifyitsleaderposition(stillbehindGSthough)inthisroundoffinancialdebacles.
BestpositionedfinancialfirmsarestillWFC(bank),GS(Brokerage),JPM(financailsupermarket),BLK(assetmgmt),SCHW(discountretail).Watchtheleaderscloselytoidentifytrend.Once...[閱讀全文]
BestpositionedfinancialfirmsarestillWFC(bank),GS(Brokerage),JPM(financailsupermarket),BLK(assetmgmt),SCHW(discountretail).Watchtheleaderscloselytoidentifytrend.Once...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-31 14:34:46)
PayattentiontothestrengthofGSastheleaderofbrokerages,WFCastheleaderofbanksandJPMastheleaderoffinancialsuperpower.Theystillhaveroomtogoup.XLFmeetswithsomeresistanceatits50daySMA.Oncebreakingup,itwillendthisroundofbounceat24(100daySMA)to26(lowerboundofitsupperrangeceiling).
BTW,Iposted熊火燒不盡春風吹又生onedaythemarketbottom(http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200807&postID=15...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-25 08:08:49)
MichaelShedlocksummarizedthatthereare10phasesinabearmarket.Letusreviewwhereitstartedandwherearewenow.
1.Ahugebuy-the-dipmentalitysetsinduringtheinitialdecline.Mostpartygoerscannotfathomthatpartyhasended.
2.Moderateconcernsetsinwhenbuythedipstopsworking.
3.Initialpanic.(FebruarytoMarch2007)
4.Numerousbottomcallsaremade,allwrong.
5.Searchfortheguilty.
6.Punishmentoftheinnocen...[閱讀全文]
1.Ahugebuy-the-dipmentalitysetsinduringtheinitialdecline.Mostpartygoerscannotfathomthatpartyhasended.
2.Moderateconcernsetsinwhenbuythedipstopsworking.
3.Initialpanic.(FebruarytoMarch2007)
4.Numerousbottomcallsaremade,allwrong.
5.Searchfortheguilty.
6.Punishmentoftheinnocen...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-20 12:26:52)
ThePainsandGainsinSpeculations
牛經滄海
IboughtSQNMat3.25on10/22/2003(before1for3reversesplit).Itwentuptoover$4onthenexttwomonths.BeforeIwasabletocelebratethemagicofjunkstockpicking,itdroppedtotheabyss$1duringthesummerdoldrumsof2004.Afteranotheryearofsuffering,itappearedtohavenohopeofrecovery.Ifinallydumpeditattheendof2005forataxsaleandtorealizedatotallossalmost.
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(2008-07-15 12:02:20)
1。牛極生熊，熊極牛起。
2。VIX與QQV達低點兩倍以上易生牛。
3。熊如暴君，葬熊必得有影響之公司陪葬。
4。市場中較後轉熊的板塊或最先轉牛，頗似STACK。
5。逐利資本必棄老牛而趨新牛。
6。股市中人不可太執著，更不可輕言放棄。持之以恒才有機會。
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(2008-07-12 14:47:49)
牛經滄海
7/12/2008
縱觀當今之勢，房市，金融，股市皆熊，僅商品一牛耳。三熊一牛，熊軍彼此呼應，其勢咄咄逼人；牛軍形影相吊，其時屈指可數。然世事皆有定數，盛極而衰，既無恒牛，亦無常熊。牛熊更迭，故而為市場。三熊之中，房熊為源，金融衍生產品最堪為憂，股熊隻是前二熊的並發症。2000年科網泡沫破裂，加上911之創，美政府急不擇計，養一個泡沫取代另[閱讀全文]
7/12/2008
縱觀當今之勢，房市，金融，股市皆熊，僅商品一牛耳。三熊一牛，熊軍彼此呼應，其勢咄咄逼人；牛軍形影相吊，其時屈指可數。然世事皆有定數，盛極而衰，既無恒牛，亦無常熊。牛熊更迭，故而為市場。三熊之中，房熊為源，金融衍生產品最堪為憂，股熊隻是前二熊的並發症。2000年科網泡沫破裂，加上911之創，美政府急不擇計，養一個泡沫取代另[閱讀全文]
(2008-05-09 07:42:17)
Investmentinthestockmarketisalwaysmyfavorite.Sincegotdrowninthe2000techbubble,Iexpandedtoacoupleofalternativesinrecentyears:Investinrestaurants.Ihappentoknowacoupleofsmartandambitiousrestaurateurs.Oneofthemacceptedmyfundsasapassiveinvestor.Istartedwitha10%stakeinhisfirstrestaurantin2005.Ithasareturnof30%annualreturnsofar.Iaddedto20%ofstakeinhissecondrestaurant,whichwillcost3milliontocompletethis...[閱讀全文]
(2008-05-05 08:57:54)
BasedonQ1report,Techearninggrowthwas22%YoYandbeatestimatesby15%.Read:themarketunder-estimatedTechnames,orunderpricedtheminQ1.
Ontheotherextreme,Financialearninggrowthwas-67%YoY.Theslow-downwasunder-estimatedbymerely8.5%.Read:thestreetwasveryclosetoknowthescopeoffinancialdebaclesbynow. [閱讀全文]
Ontheotherextreme,Financialearninggrowthwas-67%YoY.Theslow-downwasunder-estimatedbymerely8.5%.Read:thestreetwasveryclosetoknowthescopeoffinancialdebaclesbynow. [閱讀全文]
(2008-04-20 08:37:52)
如果不是太貪心，隻做藍籌的話，年回報12%完全可能。如10年前(01/01/1998)買市
值最大的10支股票，至12/31/2007之回報是226%(見表)，年均回報為12。5%。以上隻是途徑之一。簡單易行。爆發的小股票難求，市值最大的股票易得。
Top10CompanyReturnMarketCap(Billion)byMarketCap10Yearago1998-2007Jan.1,1998GeneralElectric(NYSE:GE)169%$240Unilever148%$211Tyco(NYSE:TYC)260%$179Microsoft(Nasdaq:MSFT)228%$156ExxonM...[閱讀全文]
值最大的10支股票，至12/31/2007之回報是226%(見表)，年均回報為12。5%。以上隻是途徑之一。簡單易行。爆發的小股票難求，市值最大的股票易得。
Top10CompanyReturnMarketCap(Billion)byMarketCap10Yearago1998-2007Jan.1,1998GeneralElectric(NYSE:GE)169%$240Unilever148%$211Tyco(NYSE:TYC)260%$179Microsoft(Nasdaq:MSFT)228%$156ExxonM...[閱讀全文]
