牛經滄海投資感悟生活點滴
吾言吾所思，君聞君所願。【聲明】不作投資建議。
博文
(2008-10-16 11:00:36)
ThegovernmentsaidThursdaythatthemaximumamountofearningssubjecttotheSocialSecuritytaxwillincreaseto$106,800in2009from$102,000thisyear.About11millionwillpayhighertaxesasaresultoftheincrease.
Itimpliesthatonly11millionofAmericansmakemorethan$102,000annually.Certainly,itonlyaccountstheearningsfromtheirlabor,notfrominvestment.Thehighearningpopulationissurprisinglysmall.
Few,ifanyonthisboar...[閱讀全文]
(2008-10-13 16:31:16)
牛經滄海
10/13/2008
因上周LEH的CDSEVNET，CDS賣方被迫變現400B以應付清算，直接導致劇量MARGINSELL，引發道指創下有史以來最大的單周跌幅。請關注近期CDSEVENTS。估計不會再有LEH的衝擊力，但不可不防喔。 WashingtonMutual:10/23/08 Lansbanki:11/04/08 Glitair:11/05/08 Kaupbing:11/06/08 LehmanBrothers:10/10/08(Done) [閱讀全文]
10/13/2008
因上周LEH的CDSEVNET，CDS賣方被迫變現400B以應付清算，直接導致劇量MARGINSELL，引發道指創下有史以來最大的單周跌幅。請關注近期CDSEVENTS。估計不會再有LEH的衝擊力，但不可不防喔。 WashingtonMutual:10/23/08 Lansbanki:11/04/08 Glitair:11/05/08 Kaupbing:11/06/08 LehmanBrothers:10/10/08(Done) [閱讀全文]
(2008-10-13 15:35:16)
牛經滄海10/13/2008盼反彈，迎反彈，迎來反彈怎麽辦?上周大市崩盤，確實出乎滄海之預料。原以為一場金融危機而已，不料已重創美國經濟，乃至世界經濟。如此看來，我們或處於二十年周期的下行區間，或處於七十年代滯漲階段?嘿，誰會關心久遠的事！還是談近的吧。崩盤之前，DJIA在11500附近徘徊將近三月，直至上周突然崩潰，一瀉兩千點有餘。這種崩潰，完全脫離FA，多半[閱讀全文]
(2008-10-10 14:22:22)
belowtheir50Dayand200Daysimplemovingaveragenow.
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(2008-10-09 20:02:33)
(2008-10-07 14:50:55)
牛經滄海
10/7/2008
Thismessageisintendedtonewinvestors.Themarketbecomesastrangernow,atleastforme.Doleaveenoughbreathroomtoavoidmarginsqueezesinordertosurviveabearmarket.Don'ttotrybeingaheroortakingchances.In1998,Iexperiencedseveralmomentsofacompletelywipe-outofmypositions,onlytotheseetheportfoliorecoveredindaysoncethesqueezeisdone.Suchthrillingsurvivalssetmeupanillusion.Theluckranoutandthe...[閱讀全文]
(2008-10-05 12:43:46)
牛經滄海10/05/2008Whereisthemarketnow?Itisinanunknownterritory.Nodoubtsaboutit.LastFridayatclose,VXOwas52andQQV50.Thesereadingsputtheleveloffeartoamongthehighestinthelasttwentyyears.Suchnumberswerereachedpreviouslyonlyintheinfamous87crashes,the98financialstorm,theSept11panic,andtheSeptof2002.Ateachsuchoccurrence,themarketbouncedbacksmartly.ImagethatyouboughtsomeEBAYat13ashare,CSCOat10orDIAat8...[閱讀全文]
(2008-09-21 07:07:52)
牛經滄海9/21/2008自稱蠢女人者問東方之珠三期會否跌倒零，滄海試答之。本產品將募集而來的人民幣資金轉換成美元投資於開放式基金(包括股票型基金和債券型基金)和現金類資產。1.投資組合最多可保留不超過10%的人民幣資金應對日常贖回需要，其他資金均轉換為美元進行投資。人民幣投資範圍包括但不限於存放於境內托管人的銀行存款。滄海:這部分基本安全。2.美元投資[閱讀全文]
(2008-09-20 06:58:49)
牛經滄海
9/20/2008
華爾街五大投行，個個百年老店，久經危機洗禮，卻被一手自創的金融衍生產品泡沫擊倒，真是造化弄人。
巧的是，本人在最先倒下的全美第五大投資銀行貝爾斯登任職，而太太就在全美第四大投資銀行雷曼兄弟。前者擁有4000億美元的資產，雇用18000員工，後者則擁有6000億美元的資產，雇用28000員工。投行的員工可不是商行的出納員。
金融衍生產品[閱讀全文]
(2008-09-17 12:03:28)
ItsatisfiesmostofbottomdetectioncriteriaincludingtheVIXandQQVmetrics(pleasecheckmyoldpostingsin熊火燒不盡春風吹又生fordetailsifyouarecurious).
Mostimportantly,mypropitiatoryrulenumber7wasmet:
7.Nofundleftwhenarealbottomshowsup.
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