博文
Where is the rug under?
(2008-06-29 19:50:06)
Ok,thegameofguessingthebottomisonagain.Nowthatthemarkethavereachedthelowforthelasttwoyearsandisatthevergeof“official”bearmarket,willthemarketbouncefromhere,or,istheremoreroomtofail?Beforeweanswerthatmilliondollarquestion,wecanlookbackthehistoryofpastbearmarket.AccordingtoWSJ,theaveragebearmarketwasdown31%fromthehigh.Theworstofthebearmarketisdownmorethan80%(greatdepression).So,dependsonhowseveret...[閱讀全文]
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ugly! but uglier ?
(2008-06-26 20:40:01)
Itwasugly.ThechartsofDJIAandSP500un-mistakenlyshowedthat.Forthefirsttimeoflongtime,bothindexesaredeepintheoversoldterritory.OutofNASDAQ100,only14arestillabovetheir50day’sMAand31ofthemmadenewlowinamonth.Isthisthelowofshortterm?Well,itishardtosayforsure,butitissafetosaythatitisclosertothelowJWhatabouttomorrow?After3%dropinasingleday,Iwillnotbesurprisedtoseethemarketopenhigher,however,itishardtosayt...[閱讀全文]
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FED\'s dilema
(2008-06-24 19:46:46)
Thisiscertainlytoughesttapeforquitesometime.Thatthemarketcannotholditsgainisveryfrustrating.Eventhoughweareveryclosetothelowsoftheyear,alotofpeoplestillholdhopesomehowtheworstwillbeoverinshortamountoftime.Ifonewantstoseethecapitulationofthemarket,oneisdefinitelydisappointed.Tomorrow,wewillhearthedecisionfromFEDabouttheinterestrate,theconsensusonthestreetisthattheFEDwillleavetheinterestratealone,so...[閱讀全文]
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Bottom or not ?
(2008-06-22 20:50:57)
Isthebottomhere?Willweseea“V”shapedrebound?Dependsonwhetherapersonisinthestateofgreedorfear,theanswercouldbeutterlydifferent.Thetruthiswereallydonotknowwherethebottomis.Anyanticipatorymoveispurelyaguesshowevertheintelligentthatguessmightbe.Let’sreviewthestateofmarket.TheDOWlostthesupportof12000forgood.IwassurprisedtoseehoweasethesupportwasbrokenlastFriday.EventhoughtheDOWhaslostmorethan3%ofthew...[閱讀全文]
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Tech vs the world
(2008-06-16 19:40:27)
Thequestionfortheweekiswhetherthetechnologywillpullthemarketuporthemarketoverallwilldragthetechnologydown.QQQQandSMHlookshealth,butDJIAandSP500areinconclusiveaswhatthenextstepmightbe.However,theoldculprits,XLFandXHBaresimplybouncingoffoversoldterritoryandsoonfacingtheirfirstresistance,so,theanswertothequestionwillberevealedinshorttime.Weshallsee.Theconsumerdiscretionandtransportationdonotoffermuch...[閱讀全文]
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Caution, thou are the name of the week.
(2008-06-08 19:23:08)
Bittenbyasnakeonce,itremainstoofearfultoseeasnakefortenyears.The400pointsdroplastFridayisjustlikeasnake’sbite;theonlyunknownishowlongitwilltakethemarkettohealthephobia.Nodoubt,theculpritisthejoblessrate,itchangedpublicperceptiontorecessionisalreadyhere,thatinturninvalidatedallpresumptionsthattheworseisoverandgavetheammunitiontotheargumentthattherallysincetheMarchisnothingbutadeadcatbounce.Thesect...[閱讀全文]
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The rhythm of the market
(2008-06-05 20:00:58)
Themarket,likeasong,hasitsownrhythm,andthesuccessoftradingistolistentotherhythmanddancetoitsbeat.Therearealotofexplanationsaswhymarketrosetoday.Oneofthemorepopulartheoriesisthebetterretailsalenumber.Butinanotherday,todaycouldbeeasilyablowup.Theoilhasrisen5buck.TheSP500putafloorofitstradingrangeandDJIAhasclimbedbackaswell.TherealstandoutistheNASDAQ100.FromitslowsetonMarch,ithasrosealmost18%.Andifyo...[閱讀全文]
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a frustrated bull
(2008-06-04 20:08:16)
Youjustwishwewereinlate90’s,whenSP500washighlytiltedtowardtech.Butthatwasthen,andthisisnow.Today,thebiggestcomponentinSP500isfinancials,so,whenbankscaughtthecold,thebroadmarketcoughed.First,badnews;wehopedthatsp500couldholdaboveits50daysMAaround1380,forawhile,itwasreallyhopeful.However,itwasdownfractionattheend,makingitanindecisiveday.So,wecanhopeforanotherday.Maybeweareenteringatradingrangewithf...[閱讀全文]
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Where are we now ?
(2008-06-03 20:34:20)
SP500didnotholdits50dayMA,DJIAisindeeptrouble.OnlyNASDAQ100stilllooksgood,butSMHtoday’sdroptotouchits20dayMAmeansthattomorrowisveryimportantforthemarket.Iftechcanholditsown,itmaystillservetheroleasthebeaconandanchorinthisswirlstormcreatedbythehousingandgreedyfinancialinstitutions.Inthatregard,today’stimelyreboundofXHBmaybodeswellforthemarkettomorrow.Inthetechland,softwaredidwellexceptMSFT.Thethr...[閱讀全文]
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Sunday links
(2008-05-18 10:02:26)

DoorDie?apictureworththousandwords.
Acontarian'sargumentthatnowisthetimetobuy:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/business/yourmoney/18stra.html
Andsomerichpeoplesarebuyingtoo:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080429/millionaires_fidelity_study.html?.v=3
Butoildcouldbeaproblemiflastfewday'stradingisanindication.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/goldman-raises-oil-price-forecast/...[閱讀全文]
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