By Region
The South outpaces the country’s other four regions in its projections for future high school graduates. In 2019, the region recorded 1.43 million high school graduates. It’s on track to peak at 1.54 million in 2026, then decline to 1.42 million in 2037. Notably, Texas and Florida are projected to post larger high school graduating classes in almost every year compared to their 2019 levels -- even after 2025.
The West produced just under 910,000 high school graduates in 2019. Projections show the region hitting 962,000 graduates in 2024 before sliding to 833,000 in 2037. About half of high school diploma production in the region is driven by California, which accounted for almost 485,000 graduates in 2019, is expected to peak at about 507,000 in 2024 and is in line to see just 411,000 in 2037.
In the Midwest, high school graduates totaled just under 786,000 in 2019. They’re expected to peak at 791,000 in 2025 and decline to about 693,000 in 2037.
Just over 644,000 high school graduates were reported in the Northeast in 2019. The region is on pace to peak at just under 651,000 in 2025 and tail off to about 571,000 in 2037.
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