High school graduates are on track to peak in number across the country at 3.93 million with the Class of 2025, according to projections released Tuesday by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. That’s about 4 percent above the 3.77 million high school graduates in the Class of 2019. After 2025, the projections show graduating classes declining moderately in size over a dozen years due largely to the so-called birth dearth that dates to families having fewer children amid the economic disruptions of the Great Recession.
In 2037, the U.S. high school graduating class is projected to total 3.52 million students -- roughly the same size as it was in 2014.
In 2036, projections show almost 39,000 fewer Black high school graduates than there were in 2019. White high school graduates will also shrink considerably, down by almost 330,000 in 2036 compared to 2019 levels.
Conversely, Hispanic high school graduates are projected to number almost 73,000 more in 2036 than they did in 2019. That’s would actually be down from 2026, when Hispanic high school graduates are projected to number more than 162,000 above 2019 levels. Projections show about 50,500 more Asian and Pacific Islander high school graduates in 2036 than there were in 2019.