P(這次正/前億次正)= P (前億次正/這次正)×P (這次正)/(P (前億次正/這次正)x P (這次正)+ P (前億次正/這次負)x P (這次負))
Fair coin 前提:
=1 x 0.5 / (1x0.5 + 1 x 0.5)=0.5
非fair coin前提:
= 1 x 1 / (1 x 1 + 1 x 0)= 1
當然如果不是全非fair也不是全fair,答案則在 0.5 和1之間
P(這次正/前億次正)= P (前億次正/這次正)×P (這次正)/(P (前億次正/這次正)x P (這次正)+ P (前億次正/這次負)x P (這次負))
Fair coin 前提:
=1 x 0.5 / (1x0.5 + 1 x 0.5)=0.5
非fair coin前提:
= 1 x 1 / (1 x 1 + 1 x 0)= 1
當然如果不是全非fair也不是全fair,答案則在 0.5 和1之間
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