It's worth noting that Lowe is one of the most level-minded and reputable ESPN commentators.
Loser: Houston Rockets
Your disaster downside is limited when you have two max-level stars already on the roster, but Houston’s offseason could only have gone worse had it panicked in the wake of the Bosh rejection and overpaid for a non-star talent.
Trace this back a year, when Chandler Parsons suddenly hired Dwight Howard’s agent, the Rockets lured Howard away from Kobe Bryant’s dungeon, and the rumblings began that Houston would allow Parsons into free agency one year earlier than necessary. The Rockets could have kept Parsons on the books next season for less than $1 million, but they declined that option in order to walk him into restricted free agency a year early.
There were rational justifications, including that making Parsons a restricted free agent now1 gave Houston matching rights, and thus control over Parsons’s fate. But that control apparently had a price ceiling, since Dallas snagged Parsons away with a three-year, $46 million offer sheet that came with booby traps — a player option on Year 3, and a trade kicker that could have a massive impact on Parsons’s tradability if the cap rises as fast as everyone expects.
Parsons would have been plenty tradable in 2014-15 on an expiring $1 million deal, since a team acquiring him would have also acquired his Bird Rights — and the ability to pay Parsons more than any other suitor in free agency next July.
No one directly involved with the Parsons negotiations will confirm it, but it is widely suspected around the league that Dan Fegan, the lead agent representing Parsons and Howard, made it clear that accelerating Parsons’s payday was an unofficial part of the Howard contract. The Wizards splurged on Martell Webster last summer in part because Fegan represents both Webster and John Wall, per several league sources. This is not an uncommon thing; the Cavaliers may soon experience it with Thompson.
Both Parsons and Daryl Morey, Houston’s GM, have told me that Parsons had asked if it were possible to get an immediate raise over the last two years of his contract, so he was clearly frustrated working on perhaps the best bang-for-the-buck contract in the NBA.
The Rockets would have happily matched on Parsons had they signed Bosh, and Houston in those crazy moments after LeBron’s announcement believed they had him. But Bosh never made a hard commitment, according to multiple sources familiar with the process. There was no guarantee of signing him when Houston made what is now a catastrophic trade with the Lakers, forking over Jeremy Lin and a first-round pick to clear space for Bosh.
There’s no real defending that move. It was a gamble that failed, and it cost Houston picks and a valuable piece of its depth. Houston now has just one point guard with any real NBA experience. Had it not gotten a future first-rounder from New Orleans in the Omer Asik space-clearer, this free-agency experience would go down as an all-time cautionary tale.
The Lakers clearly had a hard deadline for Houston using their cap space, since L.A. followed the Lin deal by piling money atop Jordan Hill and Nick Young. Other teams with space to absorb Lin — Philly, Utah, Orlando — either weren’t interested in paying him $15 million next season, or demanded more future picks as the cost of doing so.
Houston rebounded well by signing Trevor Ariza on a four-year, $32 million deal that declines over time and working a funky sign-and-trade that created an $8.5 million trade exception with which Houston might add a player.2
Ariza isn’t an off-the-bounce creator on Parsons’s level, but he’s a better 3-point shooter and in a different stratosphere as a defender. He is the wing stopper Houston lacked last season as James Harden stood around doing nothing and Damian Lillard escaped Parsons to nail the most wide-open series-clinching buzzer-beater in the recorded history of videotape and oral storytelling.
Depending on the cap level for 2015-16, Houston could have about $14 million in cap space next summer, with the ability to open max-level space by trading Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, and other young guys. Those players remain on the roster for now as potential Love trade bait, but Parsons on a $1 million deal would have been the most appealing centerpiece of any such trade. And any cap flexibility will vanish should Houston use the midlevel exception now or trade for a guy on a multiyear contract.
Houston will still be a strong playoff team, but it’s worse (for now) than it was last season, and that counts as a crusher. One last word on Bosh: He was intrigued by Houston, but he’s 30, he’s super-smart, and he just spent four years playing with two like-minded stars on an older roster for an organization that takes basketball craft seriously. The Rockets do, too, but there is an undercurrent around the league that Harden and Howard don’t represent the most appealing duo of teammates for any star who has lived within ultraserious professionalism.
Loser: Houston Rockets
Your disaster downside is limited when you have two max-level stars already on the roster, but Houston’s offseason could only have gone worse had it panicked in the wake of the Bosh rejection and overpaid for a non-star talent.
Trace this back a year, when Chandler Parsons suddenly hired Dwight Howard’s agent, the Rockets lured Howard away from Kobe Bryant’s dungeon, and the rumblings began that Houston would allow Parsons into free agency one year earlier than necessary. The Rockets could have kept Parsons on the books next season for less than $1 million, but they declined that option in order to walk him into restricted free agency a year early.
There were rational justifications, including that making Parsons a restricted free agent now1 gave Houston matching rights, and thus control over Parsons’s fate. But that control apparently had a price ceiling, since Dallas snagged Parsons away with a three-year, $46 million offer sheet that came with booby traps — a player option on Year 3, and a trade kicker that could have a massive impact on Parsons’s tradability if the cap rises as fast as everyone expects.
Parsons would have been plenty tradable in 2014-15 on an expiring $1 million deal, since a team acquiring him would have also acquired his Bird Rights — and the ability to pay Parsons more than any other suitor in free agency next July.
No one directly involved with the Parsons negotiations will confirm it, but it is widely suspected around the league that Dan Fegan, the lead agent representing Parsons and Howard, made it clear that accelerating Parsons’s payday was an unofficial part of the Howard contract. The Wizards splurged on Martell Webster last summer in part because Fegan represents both Webster and John Wall, per several league sources. This is not an uncommon thing; the Cavaliers may soon experience it with Thompson.
Both Parsons and Daryl Morey, Houston’s GM, have told me that Parsons had asked if it were possible to get an immediate raise over the last two years of his contract, so he was clearly frustrated working on perhaps the best bang-for-the-buck contract in the NBA.
The Rockets would have happily matched on Parsons had they signed Bosh, and Houston in those crazy moments after LeBron’s announcement believed they had him. But Bosh never made a hard commitment, according to multiple sources familiar with the process. There was no guarantee of signing him when Houston made what is now a catastrophic trade with the Lakers, forking over Jeremy Lin and a first-round pick to clear space for Bosh.
There’s no real defending that move. It was a gamble that failed, and it cost Houston picks and a valuable piece of its depth. Houston now has just one point guard with any real NBA experience. Had it not gotten a future first-rounder from New Orleans in the Omer Asik space-clearer, this free-agency experience would go down as an all-time cautionary tale.
The Lakers clearly had a hard deadline for Houston using their cap space, since L.A. followed the Lin deal by piling money atop Jordan Hill and Nick Young. Other teams with space to absorb Lin — Philly, Utah, Orlando — either weren’t interested in paying him $15 million next season, or demanded more future picks as the cost of doing so.
Houston rebounded well by signing Trevor Ariza on a four-year, $32 million deal that declines over time and working a funky sign-and-trade that created an $8.5 million trade exception with which Houston might add a player.2
Ariza isn’t an off-the-bounce creator on Parsons’s level, but he’s a better 3-point shooter and in a different stratosphere as a defender. He is the wing stopper Houston lacked last season as James Harden stood around doing nothing and Damian Lillard escaped Parsons to nail the most wide-open series-clinching buzzer-beater in the recorded history of videotape and oral storytelling.
Depending on the cap level for 2015-16, Houston could have about $14 million in cap space next summer, with the ability to open max-level space by trading Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, and other young guys. Those players remain on the roster for now as potential Love trade bait, but Parsons on a $1 million deal would have been the most appealing centerpiece of any such trade. And any cap flexibility will vanish should Houston use the midlevel exception now or trade for a guy on a multiyear contract.
Houston will still be a strong playoff team, but it’s worse (for now) than it was last season, and that counts as a crusher. One last word on Bosh: He was intrigued by Houston, but he’s 30, he’s super-smart, and he just spent four years playing with two like-minded stars on an older roster for an organization that takes basketball craft seriously. The Rockets do, too, but there is an undercurrent around the league that Harden and Howard don’t represent the most appealing duo of teammates for any star who has lived within ultraserious professionalism.
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