ESPN都把火箭未來排第三了，大藥進了

來源: toosad 於 2013-05-30 14:34:53 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 閱讀數 : (11610 bytes)

被窩裏幾場球就可以取代林了，磚家們也沒人再提什麽＂樣本＂大小了，誰說黑人就不能吹上天來著。


Future Power Rankings: 1-5
How will your NBA team fare in future seasons? Our experts take a close look
Originally Published: May 30, 2013
ESPN.com
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Previously:
Aug '12 | Feb. '12 | March '11 | Dec. '10 | Aug. '10 | March '10 | Dec. '09 | Nov. '09

The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons.

HOW FUTURE POWER RATING IS DETERMINED
PLAYERS (0 to 600 points): Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures
MANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching
MONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax
MARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans
DRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioning
CATEGORY RANKINGS: See how each team ranked in each category
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.

Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,200, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).

As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 50 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.

At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise and what kind of draft picks we expect the team to have in the future.

To rank the 30 teams, we asked ESPN Insider analysts Chad Ford, Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh and Kevin Pelton to rate each team in each category. We also asked our ESPN Forecast panel to rate each team in the Players, Management and Market categories.

Here are our latest rankings:

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

1. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 839
PLAYERS    MANAGEMENT    MONEY    MARKET    DRAFT
478 (2nd)    162 (2nd)    92 (20th)    86 (2nd)    21 (28th)

The juggernauts keep on chugging along. LeBron James racked up his fourth MVP in five seasons. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh started the All-Star Game alongside James, and all three notched career highs in field goal percentage. Erik Spoelstra finished second in Coach of the Year voting. The Heat won the most consecutive games since the NBA/ABA merger (27) and ended up with a franchise-high 66 victories during the regular season. The only way the 2012-13 season could have been more impressive for the Heat is if Pat Riley added president of the United States to his résumé.

Needless to say, the Heat's quest to repeat as champions looks to be right on track, and the future in Miami looks as bright as the South Beach sun. This has the makings of a dynasty, but it all hinges on what happens after next season when the Heat's star trio is expected to opt out of their contracts. Spoelstra, too, can become a free agent after the 2013-14 season.

The Heat don't rank so hot in the draft category since they won't have a first-round pick in the 2013 and 2015 drafts, but they'll live with that as long as LeBron is on the roster. The post-2014 uncertainty wasn't strong enough to dissuade the panel from voting the Heat into the top spot on the Future Power Rankings for a second straight time.

-- Tom Haberstroh
(Previous rank: 1)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 809
PLAYERS    MANAGEMENT    MONEY    MARKET    DRAFT
484 (1st)    157 (3rd)    54 (28th)    46 (17th)    67 (6th)

While the Thunder remain the biggest outside threat to the Miami Heat's dynasty chances, their future no longer looks quite as certain as it did last August. Trading James Harden reduced Oklahoma City's big three to a big two, and Russell Westbrook's postseason knee injury left Kevin Durant alone, carrying entirely too heavy a load before the Thunder were eliminated in the conference semifinals.

On a more positive note, according to our panel Oklahoma City still has the best talent in the league. Not only are Durant and Westbrook just entering their primes, but they and forward Serge Ibaka are all locked up through at least the 2015-16 season, leaving the Thunder's championship window wide open.

Westbrook will be back healthy in October, and Oklahoma City can build on the best regular-season point differential since the 2007-08 Boston Celtics. But there are still questions. Will the Thunder bring back Kevin Martin to play the role of high-scoring sixth man? And can Kendrick Perkins stop his backslide, given that the team has ruled out using the amnesty provision to remove the last two years of his onerous contract from the books?

With the franchise's reluctance to pay the luxury tax limiting options in free agency, highly-rated Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti will have to mine contributors on rookie contracts from last year's newcomers (Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb) and this year's pair of first-round picks, including the 12th overall pick via the Harden trade.

-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 2)

3. Houston Rockets | Future Power Rating: 795
PLAYERS    MANAGEMENT    MONEY    MARKET    DRAFT
398 (7th)    137 (6th)    148 (4th)    64 (9th)    49 (17th)

Whether the Thunder are considered losers or not, there is no question the Rockets won the James Harden trade by parlaying a handful of stray assets into the superstar GM Daryl Morey had long coveted. With Harden establishing himself as one of the league's top shooting guards, Houston returned to the postseason with a full starting five of players age 26 or younger. And Morey's just getting started. Houston can conceivably clear enough space under the salary cap for a max offer this summer, making the Rockets a potential landing spot for Dwight Howard.

If not Howard, then Houston has the flexibility and the assets on hand to make a run at players like LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love as interior counterweights for Harden. With contributors like Chandler Parsons locked up to reasonable long-term contracts, the Rockets won't have to worry about the salary cap for several years. They can promise newcomers a top-10 market, head coach Kevin McHale's player-friendly, up-tempo system and a chance to win big.

Houston also benefits from the front office's ability to find unheralded talent. The Rockets signed both Patrick Beverley and Greg Smith for the minimum and developed them into contributors, making Jeremy Lin and a pile of big men drafted in the first round (Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas and Thomas Robinson) potentially available for trades.

-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 13)

4. San Antonio Spurs | Future Power Rating: 774
PLAYERS    MANAGEMENT    MONEY    MARKET    DRAFT
378 (9th)    170 (1st)    125 (8th)    55 (13th)    44 (19th)

We recently celebrated the fifth anniversary of the Spurs being considered too old to remain contenders. Instead, San Antonio is heading in the opposite direction in the Future Power Rankings; this is the highest the Spurs have ever ranked in the FPR, dating back to November 2009. San Antonio certainly has benefited from this year's Finals run, but the Spurs' future would be promising no matter what.

Quietly, San Antonio has managed its salary structure to potentially have more than $20 million in cap space this summer. In practice, much of that will go to re-signing free agents Manu Ginobili and Tiago Splitter, but Splitter's cap hold ($7.5 million) is reasonable enough that the Spurs could still clear about $10 million if Ginobili quickly agrees to a smaller new contract.

The flexibility is impressive given San Antonio has four starters under contract from this year's Western Conference champions. While the Spurs will see their depth take a hit with reserves DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal and possibly Boris Diaw (player option) hitting free agency, GM R.C. Buford and head coach Gregg Popovich have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to find cheap newcomers they can plug into San Antonio's system.

The biggest looming question is how long Duncan can continue to anchor the Spurs. He has two years left (including a player option) on the contract he signed last summer and is coming off a season as good on a per-minute basis as any since the 2007 championship. As long as Duncan competes at a high level, so too will San Antonio.

-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 9)

5. Golden State Warriors | Future Power Rating: 760
PLAYERS    MANAGEMENT    MONEY    MARKET    DRAFT
422 (5th)    127 (8th)    106 (11th)    68 (7th)    36 (24th)

The Warriors were the highest risers of any team in the FPR, moving up 14 spots from 19th to fifth. That's what happens when you play the most exciting brand of basketball in the NBA and make the second round one year after finishing 20 games under .500.

Golden State saw increases across the board. Its roster went from 16th to fifth thanks to a breakout season by Stephen Curry, another solid year of development for Klay Thompson and the strong play of rookies Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green and Festus Ezeli. Together, the Warriors now have arguably the best young core in the league.

The management score also received a huge bump, from 19th to eighth, as a result of the deft drafting and trading GM Bob Myers has done the past two years. With a strong ownership group behind him and a great adviser in Jerry West, suddenly the Warriors look like a model of how to run a modern franchise. We expect their scores to keep growing in this area.

Other than the Rockets, who have the means for a huge free agency period this summer, the Warriors are the up-and-coming team in the West.

-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 19)

 

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