ESPN insider: Three potential playoff spoilers

Three potential playoff spoilers

Pacers, Rockets and Grizzlies all have the components for a postseason upset

Updated: February 27, 2013, 5:32 PM ET

By David Thorpe | ESPN Insider

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The New Bad Boys?

Are the Pacers the new Bad Boys? David Thorpe and Henry Abbott discuss that and why Indy may be uniquely suited for beating the Heat in the playoffs.

 

Just say it: Fans and NBA experts hardly ever agree on anything.

 

 

This season, however, they've come to a rare accord: The 2012-13 NBA champion will be one of three teams -- the Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder. Certainly no other team is built to win a ring the way these three are. But some teams could pull off major upsets on their way to the conference finals or even the NBA Finals.

 

 

How these "playoff spoilers" finish the season should give us an idea of how far they might go in the postseason. Here are the three teams I'm watching closely, teams that have the goods to shock the NBA world because they have the three ingredients to do so: a superstar, a special style of play and an X factor player.

 

 

Indiana Pacers: Lone threat in East

We all remember how dejected Miami looked after Game 3 in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. The Pacers nearly had Miami down three games to one. After eventually losing that series, the Pacers bounced back this season and recently shellacked the Heat and a few other legitimate contenders. Unlike Houston and Memphis, Indiana has known all along who it is and is supremely comfortable playing that way.

The superstar: Paul George

George

George is not by any definition a true superstar, as he is not yet an overwhelming scorer typically associated with that label. However, if we factor in his overall impact -- some big scoring nights with the ability to slow the world's best player -- then George can be good enough to carry his team through the playoffs. Superstars inspire their teammates with words and actions, and a focused George doing damage on both ends of the court will help teammates believe that they can upset the Heat, especially if George is effective at what few have done in recent years -- harassing James into poor shooting.

 

 

 

The X factor: David West

West

If West can score big and efficiently, as he has against Miami, and bother Chris Bosh into playing "small," Indiana can gain an advantage in the paint. This is a must considering the advantage Miami has on the perimeter, even if George can slow James. West also has the kind of toughness and leadership to guide the Pacers through a rough stretch.

 

 

 

Style of play: Hit first, hit hardest
This Pacers team reminds me of the golden age of the Pistons, the Bad Boys. That is not to say they play dirty, but they play very close to the edge. When they step over, they are fine with that. Not only are they smart for playing in this manner, but it is exceptionally well-suited to dethrone the Heat. Miami is a finesse team; the Pacers must force the Heat into a physical style of play with which they are not accustomed. If Indiana can goad Miami into matching the physicality, they will have a big advantage.

 

 

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Houston Rockets: A shock in Round 1?

Often, the postseason is described as more grinding and features fewer possessions than the regular season. Of course, the Rockets don't subscribe to that slower, plodding style of play. Instead, they play the kind of game that can knock off a top-three seed like the Thunder or Los Angeles Clippers. (It doesn't, however, include the Spurs, whom the Rockets would play if they earned the No. 8 seed and the Spurs retained their current top seed. The Spurs are the only team disciplined enough to handle Houston's let-it-fly style.)

The superstar: James Harden

Harden

The Rockets' offensive anchor is Harden, who can put up at least two monster games in a series. Harden needs to help his team win just four games. Meaning, he does not have to explode in all seven potential contests. Harden can be the guy who does most of his damage late in the game, and his passing talent can exploit hard double-teams when the defense chooses that route. His knack for drawing fouls gives him both the ability to put up big numbers even when his shot is off and ruin an opponent's rotation and force it into lineups with which it's unfamiliar.

 

 

 

X factor: Jeremy Lin

Lin

Lin is a no-brainer. He has proved to be the kind of guy who can stand up when the moment is dire or when the game is on the line. If Houston can keep games tight against a heavily favored opponent, Lin has the ability to knock down winning shots. Omer Asik also fits here, as he can dominate the boards and the paint on defense, forcing teams out to the perimeter.

 

 

 

Style of play: "Bombs away!"
Houston ranks just behind New York in the NBA in 3s made and taken in games, and no other team is close. The Rockets can put up huge shooting numbers quickly, deadly in a short series. Harden's ability to earn free points can mitigate a cold-shooting quarter or half.

 

 

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Memphis Grizzlies: A second-round surprise?

Indeed, it did seem unlikely Memphis would maintain its early-season success. The Grizzlies had the advantage of returning virtually the same team as last season, and it showed. After Rudy Gay was traded, many said that the Grizzlies were breaking up a contender, but teams ranking in the bottom 10 in offense, like Memphis was, do not contend for titles. However, the team is on a roll now and has the mark of a dangerous opponent if it reaches the second round.

 

 

The superstar: Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph

Gasol

Think of the term superstar not in reference to fame but rather someone who can be the best player on the court for a series. Memphis has two players who have excelled in the postseason before. Gasol can dominate the pinch post, breaking down a half-court defense with his passing and scoring touch. He also can dictate the paint on defense and the boards. Randolph is not as mobile as he was two seasons ago, but he still is one of the league's best scorers and can force defenses to double-team him.

 

 

 

X factor: Mike Conley

Conley

Conley's ability to break down defenses off the dribble (a huge factor in tight games), shoot from distance and lead a stalwart perimeter defense will be a difference-maker. He has not always understood that he can be more than just a lead guard; he can be the best player on the court.

 

 

 

Style of play: U-G-L-Y
There is little to enjoy about watching the Grizzlies' half-court offense. Likewise, they make opposing offenses look just as ugly. During the 2010 playoffs, the ugly play frustrated the Spurs, whose offense was one of the best in league history. Memphis stayed focused, grinding away play after play. Memphis won't panic when it goes through scoring droughts, but its opponents often do. This team is among the league's top three in steals per game and turnovers forced for a reason.