by Zach Cronin
The Charlotte Hornets had great success this past season because of outstanding guard play. Specifically, because Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker perfectly complemented each other. Now that Lin has ditched the purple and blue for the Brooklyn Nets‘ black and white, why not take a look at the similarities and differences of two young guards?
If you were constructing a team and had to pick between Lin and Walker at point guard, you’d most likely pick the latter. Although the two have been in the league for almost the same amount of time, Walker has built a solid reputation, while Lin was bouncing from team-to-team.
As a top rated recruit coming out of high school and a national champion with the UConn Huskies back in 2011, Walker has had lofty expectations to meet. The same isn’t for Lin. After going undrafted out of Harvard, it would’ve been a great story to see Lin play a couple of seasons in the NBA. That ship has sailed, and the Silicon Valley native has carved out a respectable career in the league. He was the talk of the 2011-12 season during his Linsanity days with the New York Knicks.
Since both guys spent last year playing alongside each other in Charlotte, it’s almost a given they picked up a few things from each other. Furthermore, they’d go up against each other in practice and have a sound idea of how they play. Now that Lin is locked down for a long-term starting gig, his potential will be tapped fully by Brooklyn.
One aspect that skews this comparison more than anything is that Walker has the better team around him, and good players with great teams just look better. The Hornets are looking to return to the playoffs again, while Brooklyn is hoping to win anywhere between 25-30 games. Regardless, Lin is in a position to have the best season of his career because he won’t be buried in the depth chart.
Offense
1. Perimeter Offense
Kemba Walker is a better offensive player than Jeremy Lin. There’s no question. When you look at Walker’s overall ability on that side of the floor, it’s hard for Lin to compete. Despite being a shorter guard, Walker has blinding quickness, sneaky athleticism, and is a magician with the ball. Using those attributes, Walker finishes around the basket at a clip better than Lin: 59.8 percent to 56.8, and shows excellent poise when attacking bigger defenders. That’s not where he wins the battle, though.
Successful guards in this era dominate on the perimeter. Almost every top-ten point guard remains lethal as he steps away from the hoop. On shot attempts between 16-24 feet, Walker shoots 37.6 percent opposed to Lin’s 33.1, according to NBA.com. From three, the discrepancy is roughly the same, with Walker burying 37.1 while Lin’s at 33.6.
2. Paint Offense
The one area where Lin is arguably better is when it comes to drawing contact. He has a recklessness about him that isn’t so prevalent in Walker, and Lin gets to the charity stripe very often. Adjusted stats can be quirky, but they can also prove an argument if they’re used properly. Per 36 minutes, Lin attempts 5.1 free throws and four threes a night, and Walker’s at 5.5 free throws and 6.1 threes. But, as I mentioned earlier, their contrasting styles present challenges for defenses.
The last point I want to touch on is how they operate the pick-and-roll. It’s so important for guards in today’s NBA to be effective on the PnR because so much offense is generated from it. Walker is not shy about being the ball handler in that situation and finished third in the NBA with 789 possessions. But Lin runs it a decent amount, too, and roughly 33 percent of his offense comes as the PnR ball handler. Walker is the better of the two here, not only finishing a high percentage of his shots (41.5 to 38.3), but he generates more points per possession, .89 to .79, all of which are according to the NBA’s tracking stats.
Walker’s proficiency in that spot is because of his ability to knock down long-distance shots, which puts defenders in pickles because he’s lightning quick and can get to the cup at will.
3. Turnovers
When it comes to sloppiness, Walker has the edge. Lin plays with such aggression that it makes it hard for him to hold on to the ball, and teams know that when signing him. It does, however, get to a point where it becomes detrimental. Walker and Lin were relatively high usage players last year, 26.5 to 22.2 percent, respectively, and Lin managed to have a higher turnover rate (14.9 to 10.1) and lower assist rate (25.7 to 18.6) than his playmaking counterpart.
Defense
1. On The Perimeter
Last season, the Hornets finished eighth in the league in defensive efficiency. Both Lin and Walker improved significantly on that end of the floor. Lin made great strides under coach Steve Clifford and is slowly, but surely, becoming a more fundamentally sound defensive player.
If we look at the numbers, the edge will go to Walker. Not only does he generate more turnovers, but his efficiency is better. If we go by the eye test, Lin is better defensively. With a bigger body–6’3, 200-pounds–and above-average athleticism, Lin can hang with bigger, more explosive guards on the perimeter and isn’t so easy to finish over. Walker doesn’t have that luxury and while he’s still a solid defender, the nod has to go to Lin. What tips the scale further is the disparity in defensive field goal percentage between the two. Walker’s opponents shoot 44.8 percent overall compared to Lin’s 41.7–not too bad. For perspective, Avery Bradley holds opponents to 41.6 percent shooting, and Chris Paul is at 46.6.
2. In The Paint
It gets ugly around the rim and of course, this is a product of Walker being a smaller guard. Inside six feet, opponents shoot a staggering 69.7 percent when guarded by Walker. Lin limits opponents to 55.3. Keep in mind those numbers are with a great collective defense. Walker can only do so much with what he’s given, though. Since he’s clearly worse around the basket, he’s peskier on the perimeter to prevent guards from getting past him.
As always, there’s the argument that the numbers are skewed for Walker because he bears the biggest load offensively. It’s plausible, coupled with him playing roughly 36 minutes per night. Conversely, opponents can wear him down by driving on him regularly. Simply put, Lin is a better all-around defender than Walker is.
Conclusions
It’s going to be an exciting year for Nets and Hornets fans as their prized point guards begin to enter the their primes. Kemba Walker made huge strides as a fifth-year player, and will be looked at as a first-time All-Star if he continues to improve at the same level. This is with such backcourt depth in the East.
For Walker to make the jump to All-Star, however, his mid-range game will need to improve. Currently, he shoots 45.9 percent on two-point shots. And that’s with his high conversion on layups. The volume will also need to increase, and that’ll happen with the departures of both Lin and Courtney Lee.
While Jeremy Lin won’t receive the notoriety his former teammate will, he’ll have an impact in Brooklyn. He’s spent so much of his career bouncing from team-to-team as a sixth man, where he’s excelled. Now that he has a stable home and a starting position, Lin is going to turn a lot of heads this year. He’ll be the undisputed orchestrator of the Kenny Atkinson offense, and his track record has shown that he can explode when given freedom. Will he match the production of Walker? Most likely not.
I’ve contrasted these two for a majority of this article, but they’re both going to be in similar positions this year as leaders. Walker, although he’s not the most tenured, is the Hornets leader. And Lin will be in his first leadership role with Brooklyn’s young roster.
