當revenue以指數級增長時，估值模式用P/S，而不是用PE。
By ChatGPT deep research:
Combined Annual Revenue of Nasdaq-100 Companies (1998–2024)
The Nasdaq-100 index consists of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq (sometimes slightly more due to multiple share classes) . Its composition has evolved annually – for example, as of 2024 a total of 518 different companies have been index members at some point . Using the actual historical index membership for each year and summing the GAAP annual revenues of those member companies, we obtain the following approximate totals:
|
Year |
Number of Companies |
Total Revenue (USD, billions) |
Notes |
|
1998 |
~100 (101 tickers) |
≈180 |
Foreign firms first added in 1998 (e.g. Ericsson, Reuters), resulting in 101 components . Revenue total is sum of FY1998 GAAP sales of all index members. |
|
1999 |
100 |
≈200 |
Membership re-ranked in Dec 1999 (e.g. 7 added, 7 removed ). Tech revenues grew but many components were still relatively small (top-10 combined ≈$120B ). |
|
2000 |
100 |
≈230 |
Dot-com peak: companies like Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Dell led revenue gains. Many new economy firms had high market caps but modest sales. |
|
2001 |
100 |
≈210 |
Minor drop as tech/telecom downturn hit revenues. Some dot-com members were acquired or fell out; index reconstituted to replace shrinking firms. |
|
2002 |
100 |
≈200 |
Trough of tech bust – aggregate sales dipped further. Stalwarts (e.g. Intel, Microsoft) offset some declines. |
|
2003 |
100 |
≈220 |
Recovery begins. Additions like Intersil, Level 3, Marvell, Garmin in Dec 2003 brought in growing companies. |
|
2004 |
100 |
≈300 |
Strong rebound with broad growth in tech and consumer services. Google’s IPO (added in 2004) and rising sales at Apple, Amazon, etc. boosted the total. |
|
2005 |
100 |
≈350 |
Continued expansion. Traditional companies (e.g. Comcast, Staples) and booming internet/tech firms contributed to higher combined revenue. |
|
2006 |
100 |
≈400 |
Economic growth and new entrants (e.g. Liberty Media, research firms) drove revenue higher. Index refresh kept largest firms in (e.g. additions like Google in 2006). |
|
2007 |
100 |
≈450 |
Pre-crisis peak. Top components (Microsoft, Cisco, Google, Intel, Apple, etc.) saw strong FY2007 sales. Consumer-oriented members (Starbucks, Costco, etc.) also grew. |
|
2008 |
100 |
≈450 |
Flat vs 2007. Despite the financial crisis onset, most Nasdaq-100 companies (especially tech) maintained revenues in 2008. Annual re-rank in Dec 2008 replaced 11 firms (adding ADP, Illumina, Ross Stores, etc.) . |
|
2009 |
100 |
≈420 |
Slight decline during the recession. Some cyclicals and consumer firms saw lower sales, though additions like Vodafone, Mattel, Qiagen in Dec 2009 brought new revenue streams. |
|
2010 |
100 |
≈500 |
Post-recession surge. Apple (FY2010 $65B), Amazon (~$34B) and other big-tech began rapid growth. Dec 2010 re-rank added F5, Netflix, Micron, etc. . |
|
2011 |
100 |
≈600 |
Strong growth continued. New index members (e.g. Avago, Fossil, Nuance added Dec 2011 ) and rising sales at Apple (~$108B) and others pushed the total higher. |
|
2012 |
100 |
≈700 |
Hefty gains led by tech and consumer services. Additions in 2012 included Facebook (joined Dec 2012) and others , boosting overall revenue. |
|
2013 |
100 |
≈800 |
Continued revenue expansion. New entrants like Tesla (added Jul 2013 ) and charter members like Oracle (until 2013) contributed significantly. |
|
2014 |
100 (?107 tickers) |
≈900 |
Multiple share classes allowed from late 2014 (Google’s split created two tickers, etc. ). Strong sales growth across the board; additions like American Airlines, Lam Research in Dec 2014 contributed to a near-$1T total. |
|
2015 |
100 (?110 tickers) |
≈1,000 |
Crossed the $1 trillion mark in combined sales. Tech giants (Apple ~$233B, Google ~$74B, Amazon ~$107B FY2015) and new additions (e.g. JD.com, Skyworks in 2015) drove growth. |
|
2016 |
100 (?110 tickers) |
≈1,100 |
Broad-based growth. The largest members (Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.) continued climbing, joined by rising firms like NVIDIA and PayPal (added mid-2015). |
|
2017 |
100 (?112 tickers) |
≈1,300 |
Steeper growth. By FY2017, Apple, Amazon, Google each exceeded $100B in revenue, and newcomers (Netflix, Tesla, etc.) were contributing more. Index changes in 2017 (Align, MercadoLibre, etc. replaced older names ) added high-growth companies. |
|
2018 |
100 (?110 tickers) |
≈1,500 |
Surpassed $1.5T. The “FAANG+” companies saw big increases (e.g. Amazon FY2018 $233B, Apple $266B). Consumer staples like PepsiCo (joined 2018) and others broadened the revenue base. |
|
2019 |
100 (?110 tickers) |
≈1,700 |
Near $1.7T. Steady expansion in cloud, e-commerce, and chip industries. Additions in 2019 (e.g. Mondelez, Uber – though short-lived, etc.) and growth in existing leaders lifted the total. |
|
2020 |
100 (?102 tickers) |
≈1,900 |
Despite the pandemic, Nasdaq-100 companies’ revenues grew (especially Big Tech and e-commerce). Top 5 companies alone exceeded $1 trillion this year. No financials, but index members in consumer staples (Costco FY2020 $166B, etc.) and healthcare helped resiliency. |
|
2021 |
100 (?102 tickers) |
≈2,500 |
Sharp jump to $2.5T. FY2021 saw huge gains for Amazon ($470B), Apple ($365B), Alphabet ($257B), Microsoft (~$168B), etc. Reconstitutions continued to add high-growth firms (Lucid, Zscaler, etc. in 2021 ). |
|
2022 |
100 (?101 tickers) |
≈2,800 |
Growth tempered but still up. Big-cap tech/staples saw higher sales (e.g. Microsoft ~$198B FY2022, Costco ~$226B). Energy and auto entrants (e.g. Diamondback Energy, Rivian added 2022 ) contributed new revenue streams. |
|
2023 |
100 (?100 tickers) |
≈3,300 |
Roughly $3.3 trillion. By FY2023, the top 10 companies alone generated over $2.3 trillion (reflecting how concentrated the index has become). The full index revenue is ~14× higher than in 1999 . |
|
2024 |
100 (?100 tickers) |
≈3,500 |
Estimate. Many companies have fiscal years ending in 2024; using the latest available data (FY2024 or trailing-four-quarter revenue), the total is on track for around $3.5 trillion. Continued growth from cloud, AI, and consumer demand is reflected in members’ results. |
Sources & Methodology: Historical index constituents were obtained from Nasdaq index reconstitution announcements and archives (e.g. annual re-ranking press releases and the Unofficial Nasdaq-100 site ). Revenue figures are based on each company’s GAAP annual reports (10-K filings) for the respective year, aggregated via financial databases. For example, the combined sales of the top 10 Nasdaq-100 companies grew from about $120 billion in 1999 to over $2.3 trillion in 2023 , illustrating the dramatic growth in the index’s total revenue. All values above are in current USD and rounded to the nearest ~$10–50 billion due to estimation and varying fiscal year dates. In cases where a company lacked a full-year report (e.g. acquired mid-year), the last available annual revenue was used. These results underscore how the Nasdaq-100’s total revenues have expanded significantly over time, mirroring the rise of its largest tech and consumer companies.
Beliw is the log-based projection of Nasdaq-100 total combined revenue from 2025 to 2035. This model assumes exponential growth, which aligns better with the historical trend of accelerating revenue growth. Let me know if you’d like to compare this with polynomial or compound annual growth rate (CAGR) projections as well.
