謝謝你與大家的分享,也希望你能收獲很多。
不過有兩個問題,你比較今年和1998年,而做出了投資決策。
1)。是不是sample size太小了,就一個例子?從統計學上,會如何看呢?是不是可以說,你的決策其實不是基於統計上有意義的數據,更可能是別的。
2)1998 sp500 was down 20%+, drivne by latin america debts crisis and russia debts crisis. And we already had a 20%+ draw down. what else will happen to crash the market again? Just valuation? And 1998, despite all of this, sp500 had a great return.
再說一遍,謝謝你分享你的方法和你的操作。