1. we need assume that the actors on both side of the negotiation are rational;
2. The stake is huge for either side.
3. I would assume that neither side wants to fail the talk deliberately.
Of course, it is very hard to reach any agreement. But any progress made or perceived will be a great catalyst.
The downside is obvious to almost every investors at this point, which is huge.
But is there any big upside risk? and what is the upside risk?
If market is down big today, both sides at the table will feel the pressure. Therefore, I would add to my longs if market goes down a big time today.
