達利歐分析指出，特朗普關稅政策的深層動因就在於債務規模失控與借貸增速過快。他認為，美國已深陷“舉債維持超額支出”的惡性循環。“這些失衡壓力正以各種形式尋求釋放，其修正過程將根本性重構貨幣秩序。”
While tariffs and their market impacts dominate headlines, the deeper, more critical issue is the breakdown of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order—a rare, once-in-a-lifetime shift driven by unsustainable debt, inequality, and deglobalization.
Key forces at play:
Monetary/Economic Order Collapse: Unsustainable debt imbalances (e.g., U.S. overborrowing, China over-lending) are forcing a restructuring of global trade and capital flows.
Domestic Political Fragmentation: Rising inequality and populism are eroding democracies, paving the way for autocratic leadership.
Geopolitical Power Shifts: The U.S.-led multilateral order is fading, replaced by unilateralism and conflict (trade wars, tech wars).
Climate & Tech Disruptions: Natural disasters and AI will further destabilize economies and international relations.
Why focus on these? Tariffs are symptoms, not causes. History shows such imbalances lead to depressions, wars, and new orders. Policymakers must prepare for radical measures (debt defaults, capital controls) as the old system unravels.
