https://www.investors.com/research/nvidia-stock-buy-now-march-2025/
Nvidia Falls As Trump China Curbs Face This Challenge; Is Nvidia A Buy Or Sell Now?
Nvidia (NVDA) beat analysts' estimates on Wednesday. Despite that, shares sank 8% on Thursday before heading even lower on Friday and Monday. Some may see that as a buying opportunity. But do the charts tell us that Nvidia stock is a buy now?
On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported that placing curbs on Nvidia chip exports to China can prove to be challenging as traders route them through third parties.
↑XOn Tuesday, reports said that President Donald Trump was considering curbs on Nvidia chips that can be exported to Chinese companies such as Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (TCEHY) without a license.
In terms of its 12-month price performance, in just one week Nvidia has fallen from the top 86% to the top 82% when compared with all other stocks in Investor's Business Daily's database. Shares are also below the 200-day moving average.
Also, on IBD MarketSurge, IBD's premium stock research platform, the stock shows that its average performance over the 21 most recent days is lagging its 50-day average performance.
Q4 Results Beat Estimates But Margins In Focus
The AI chip leader earned 89 cents per share on $39.33 billion in sales. Analysts estimates had called for 85 cents in earnings per share and sales of $38.1 billion. Nvidia is the only Magnificent Seven company to report a revenue surprise this earnings season.
Nvidia's U.S. business grew 35% sequentially—an important achievement amid tariff risks. Top three regions by sales were the U.S. at 47%, Taiwan at 16% and China, which accounted for 13% of total sales. The company also stated that three customers now accounted for more than 10% of revenue.
Productwise, Blackwell had already become the fasted growing segment, the firm's management stated Wednesday.
Analysts at Melius Research noted that U.S. sales were getting more important for Nvidia, and that the focus now was on margins given the high cost of Blackwell chips. For the current quarter, Nvidia expects adjusted gross margins of 71%.
Investors wait for Nvidia's AI developers' conference on March 17. Nvidia plans to roll out Blackwell Ultra and Rubin — its next generation chip — at the event.
Nvidia Stock: Investors Loaded Up After DeepSeek
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that recent challenges from DeepSeek and tariff threats have done little to dampen investors' enthusiasm for the stock. Year to date through Monday, investors bought $5.85 billion of Nvidia stock, more than twice what they bought over the same period last year. They bought a whopping $562 million in Nvidia shares on the day of the DeepSeek sell-off, according to Vanda Research.
Elsewhere, analysts at Mizuho noted on Feb. 14 that investors should be patient and hold out until the May quarter while Nvidia works through some "growing pains" in shipping its complex server. It is expected to drive strong sales in the second half the year.
They see Nvidia capturing 44% of the AI server market. But thanks to its pricing power, sales could be $260 billion of the $350 billion AI accelerator chip market in 2027. Mizuho has an outperform rating and price target of 175 on Nvidia stock.
Nvidia is also underperforming the S&P 500. The relative strength line, which compares the stock with the S&P 500 index, is falling.
Big Techs Confirm Huge Spending Plans
On Feb. 6, Amazon.com (AMZN) indicated it planned to increase its spending by 27% or $105 billion — mostly on AI data centers. But that was topped by Alphabet which plans to increase its spending by 57% for a total of $75 billion. Earlier, Meta Platforms (META) Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg indicated data-center spending plans of $60 billion to $65 billion in 2025 — a 59% increase at the midpoint.
Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy noted that "most AI (computing) has been driven by Nvidia chips, and we obviously have a deep partnership with Nvidia and will for as long as we can see into the future."
However, Microsoft's (MSFT) spending on AI data centers is set to slow next year. Microsoft announced in December that the company was not "chip-supply constrained."
Are These Magnificent Seven Stocks A Buy Now?
Alphabet | Amazon | Apple | Meta | Microsoft | Nvidia | Tesla
DeepSeek Hits Nvidia
Nvidia stock sank on Jan. 27 amid reports that the latest large-language model from Chinese AI lab DeepSeek came close to the performance of its American rivals at a fraction of the cost. DeepSeek said its AI models cost $5.6 million to train compared with $100 million-$1 billion that Dario Amodei, CEO of privately held Anthropic, noted as the cost for U.S. companies last year.
Nvidia is a top AI stock to watch despite the plunge.
A company spokesperson noted that DeepSeek's AI model uses a Test Time Scaling method that relies on other widely available AI models and takes longer to come up with better answers. This method allowed the system to be in compliance with export restrictions, the Nvidia spokesperson said.
Nvidia Stock Fund Ownership
Funds own 40% of Nvidia's shares outstanding, according to IBD MarketSurge. Going by its Accumulation/Distribution Rating of E, it would seem that funds aren't necessarily buying shares. The rating measures price and volume action over the last 13 weeks.
But IBD's screen on Stocks That Funds Are Buying includes Nvidia on that list. So the tide may be turning, and funds could be coming back to the artificial intelligence leader.
Nvidia Responds To Export Curbs
The Biden administration issued new regulations on chip exports on Jan. 13. Apart from 18 countries, chip exports will be restricted to 50,000 per country.
How Invested In The Stock Market Should You Be Right Now?
Reports also stated that countries would need a license when orders exceed 1,700 advanced AI chips. The restrictions will impose control over how "America's leading semiconductors, computers, systems, and even software are designed and marketed globally," Ned Finkle, Nvidia's vice president of government affairs, said in a statement.
Similar to export curbs, a trade war fought with tariffs could hurt foreign sales of U.S. semiconductor companies to some countries.
Ken Glueck, executive vice president at Oracle (ORCL), noted that the new rules could reduce the global chip market by 80% for U.S. chip companies, and that "a rule of this consequence on that timetable will turn the U.S. cloud industry upside down."
Broadcom Chips
Nvidia shares also fell after Broadcom's (AVGO) results showed strong demand for its AI processors. Broadcom competes with Nvidia in chips for data center AI networking gear. It indicated that two large customers were developing their own next-generation AI processors using Broadcom's chips. Broadcom is also designing an AI chip for Apple (AAPL).
Broadcom's first quarter report is due March 6.
Nvidia Stock: Morgan Stanley Top 2025 Pick
Shares gained nearly 4% on Dec. 20 after Moore named Nvidia a "top 2025 pick."
The analyst does not expect delays in Blackwell chip production. Moore said that he expects a slowdown in the older Hopper chip. But he adds that will make more high-end memory chips available for its Blackwell line.
Demand for Nvidia's next generation graphics processing unit, the GB200, is expected to reach 3 million units in 2026. That compares with 1.5 million for its H100 units in 2023.
Nvidia A Stock Market Leader
For Nvidia, its earnings growth is its strong point.
The AI chip behemoth has an ideal Earnings Per Share Rating of 99, while the stock also shows all-around strength with a Composite Rating of 93, despite its weak price action this year.
It also replaced Intel (INTC) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in November, becoming the fourth Magnificent Seven stock to join the list of blue chips. The others are Apple, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft.
IPhone Moment Of AI
Nvidia's graphics processing units help accelerate computing in data centers and AI applications.
The company was a pioneer in graphics processors used in such industries as health care, game machines, automobiles and robotics.
In March 2023, generative AI took a leap forward with OpenAI's ChatGPT. According to CEO Huang, Nvidia's AI-capable chips paved the way for the "iPhone moment of AI."
That helped Nvidia turn the tide on its results. It had reported three quarters of declining year-over-year sales. It also showed four quarters of tapering earnings in late 2022 and early 2023.
But then the company achieved record top- and bottom-line growth in the six most recent quarters.
Is Nvidia Stock A Buy?
Looking at chart signals and technical measures can help investors assess whether Nvidia stock is a buy now.
Despite an earnings beat, shares plunged 8% and fell below the 200-day line on Thursday. Shares are headed even lower on Monday and remained below the 200-day moving average. Nvidia has to retake the 50-day moving average before it becomes a buy again.
