Stock right now is being bid up for anticiaption of the fundamental changes in the company. While RoboTaxi and new car models are not likely to generate meaningful revenue in 2025, but investing is always forward looking. In 2025, Tesla has to prove to instituion investors that
1: Their RoboTaxi roll-out plan is on track, with limited area pilot availability in CA and Texas
2: Their EV and Energy business will continue to expand, both in terms of volume and margin. This means the new car model such as Model Q and refreshed Model Y must be a hit with consumers. I think even if margin initially is low, as long as volume is there, with Elon's mgmt style, margin improvement will come
3: They must show an actual business plan for making money with RoboTaxi
4: They must show a path that Optimus is possible for Beta by 2027 the latest.
If Tesla can hit all these milestones, instituion ownership will for sure spike up. While stock can go up or down in short term, by end of 2025, the price will be much higher than today due to instituion buying.
If they fail to delivery any of these milestones, stock will crash
