Below was posted on the day when Fed first cut 50bps in Sept. We have analyzed the bond yield movement and called for TLT correction. The main reason was that 20Y bond yield was too low at the time.
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/6507382.html
We have said 20Y bond yield would range trade between 4.75% to 4.25%. Well, it did end up hitting 4.78% in early Nov. That was the perfect time to load up TLT.
Now, 20Y bond is back to 4.48%, closing to our lower range estimate of 4.25%. Buying TLT no longer has the favorable risk/reward ratio. In fact, if 20Y bond does hit 4.25-4.3%, might want to unload some of those TLT.
