I have not had time to write detailed post about nuclear sector, but very high level, there are 4 layers of investment when it comes to investing in this sector
1: Incumbent players who are already established and ready to provide large scale electricity needs. These players have portfolio beyond just nuclear energy --- VST, CEG, NRG belong to this category. If you look at most of the hyperscaler annoucement, they actually buying nuclear powered electricity from these established players most of time, because they are the only ones with commerical available solutions.
2: Small Nuclear reactor provider --- They focus on nuclear only and promise to fudamentally change the way how nuclear energe is delivered. However, looking more into this sector, it will take years for anyone to commericialize the offering. For example, just regulation alone will take at least 3 years to get license to construct and operate a small nuclear reactor solution.
NNE, SMR, OKLO all belong to this category. None of them is close to any revenue in next 2 years. So, they are highly speculative and I think it all comes down to luck if you hold any of them for long term. If we see a market downturn, these stocks can lose 50%-75% value in a matter of days
One more thing to kepp in mind is NNE/SMR/OKLO all use Fission technology. There are talks about Fusion (which is safer and more clean than Fission) being the next gen technology. I am not an expert on this. All I know is that there is also technolgoy risk to these 3 players.
3: Nuclear parts processing: These companies process nuclear parts such as uranium and then sold to above energy companies. LEU is the leading player here. NNE/SMR/OKLO buy the processed parts from LEU before they make nuclear reactor.
4: Mining company: These are the companies that mine the actual uranium. CCO is the leading company here, and it is also the top holding of URA ETF.
For now, I decide to invest only in #1 and #3 above. Need more time to think about what to do with #2 (only day trade them here and there).
For #4, even though nuclear energy needs will rise for sure, I am not familiar with how Uranium is priced on the market. I guess it is fine to hold URA for long term. Up to your own individual investment style
