At that time, ASML was around 700 and therefore risk/award does not meet my investment criteria (meaning I am making 50 points profit at the risk of losing 150).
The issue with ASML is with most of other semis right now
1: traditional semi industry still recover and that business will take time to come back. For ASML specifcially, it also faces an issue where China bought a huge amount of equipement in early Q1 (in anticipation of US Ban), and now ASML is losing pretty much all china business
2: ASML is at the bottom of the food chain for AI infrastructure build out. Even if NVDA business keeps growing, it does not mean TSM must buy same amount of EUV from ASML to keep up with that growth
I am not bearish on ASML's long term, what I mentioned above is the typical cyclical nature of semi industry (I used to run sales in a SP500 company and have some experience with semi cycle). I just think it will take some time for ASML to go back to its previous super growth cycle.
BTW, ASML is 660 now, so, right in the middle of the range I predicted after earnng. I might become a buyer again if market panic and pushes ASML to 600. At that point, my risk/awards ratio is much more favorable.
