TSLA這家公司風險很大，但回報也有很大空間。關健就是它能否實現自動駕駛和人型機機器人的長遠目標。投資TSLA必須基於這個信仰，否則最好別長持。
這裏分享一下TSLA 的估值模型。對與TSLA這樣的成長型公司，我們不能僅僅簡單的用明年的PE來估值。在這裏，我用了DCF（discount cash flow)來估算。如果你對DCF不熟悉，可以問chatGPT. 其它的方法比如說用EBITDA會比較激進。我不用EBITDA是想盡量保守一點，同時對TSLA 未來的營業也盡量把目標放低一點
我把它分成2部份
1: 假設TSLA隻是一家EV公司。The purpose here is to come up with a baseline value estimate. 也就是說，如果TSLA股價掉到這裏，那它將是被大大低估。The basic assumptions here
a: TSLA will grow its EV and energe sales by 22-25% per year until 2029 for a total of 5million cars in 2029. This is a much lower target than the 20M cars Tsla once promised. Also, the global car sales is expected to reach 90M by 2029, so I think 5M cars is a very conservative estimate
b: TSLA can continue to grow its gross margin and operating margin. One reason TSLA has gone up 30% after last earning report is that its gross margin has improved significantly and people believe TSLA can continue improve it. 這個假設需要在未來的2-4個季度裏去不斷的驗證。
c: 根據這些假設，TSLA 2029 年的EPS大概是$10 per share, 5 年EPS 平均增速32%。我們可以保守的給它PE32 （也就是說 PEG= 1），如此下來 TSLA股價大概在2029會達到 $320
2: 第二部份我們把RoboTaxi的業務加上。
a: It is very hard to estimate the RoboTaxi business potential, Here I just throw some rough estimate. But looking at the final number, it suggest somewhere around $12B RoboTaxi revenue for Tsla in 2029. I think this number is "conservative", considering Uber+lyft alone is expected to generate close to $100B revenue from ride sharing by 2029.
b; I did put a much high operating margin for RoboTaxi, starting from 50% and grow to 75%, given this is a software business. This is still lower than optimistic wall street estimate of 80%. But i think this number is a bit high. However, since my revenue estimate is very conservative, hopefully, these 2 cancel each other.
c: 真正的RoboTaxi商業模式其實都在瞎猜。但我覺得，如果TSLA在2029年連Uber+lyft的1/10都做不到，那這個業務也不會有前途的。
d: 如果我們把RoboTaxi這部份加上去，TSLA在2029年的EPS大概是$13 per share, 5 年EPS 平均增速40%。基於這個假設，我把它的PE設在50 （PEG = 1.25）。如此下來 TSLA股價大概在2029會達到 $650
終和起來，TSLA股價大概在2029 最保守估價$320，但很有可能達到 $650。利用DCF model，我們假設discount rate 是15%，這樣的話TSLA在2024年的價值應該在$160 到 $320 區間。$160 就是你不太相信TSLA會在RoboTaxi 上成功。$320 則是你相信在2029年TSLA能夠打造出一定規模的RoboTaxi 業務。
What happened after 2029, well, Optimus will be the next growth stimulus that provides another 2x-5x value creation. That one is so far fetched so I decide not to estimate it.
