經濟數據的修正(revision)不是造假

For example, the nonform payrolls number. At the time it is initially announced, it was based upon so-called Established survey, interviewing about 119,000 business and government agency. This is a sampling process. And it will be adjusted by seasonality and the closing and opening of business.  In short it is an estimate. 

Then BLS will compare the estimate vs. the actually tax number in the later date when it become available. The difference is reported as revision.

During Trump presidency, there were a lot of revision as well. 

It is part of the process. 

 

所有跟帖: 

這個revision有點生猛 -醬油缸- 給 醬油缸 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/01/2024 postreply 07:11:12

如果錯誤總是一個方向,那多半是造假 -槍迷球迷- 給 槍迷球迷 發送悄悄話 槍迷球迷 的博客首頁 (51 bytes) () 11/01/2024 postreply 07:13:55

單向出錯,數據則是近乎隨機,誤差可以超過100%. 這是科學。欺負我不讀書? -TalkToMi- 給 TalkToMi 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/01/2024 postreply 07:25:53

估計是所用的數學模型參數調整太隨意 -richard_hz- 給 richard_hz 發送悄悄話 richard_hz 的博客首頁 (95 bytes) () 11/01/2024 postreply 07:17:06

以科學的名義造假。 -TalkToMi- 給 TalkToMi 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/01/2024 postreply 07:22:28

Tere were upward revisions, and there were downward revision -未知就是風險- 給 未知就是風險 發送悄悄話 (159 bytes) () 11/01/2024 postreply 07:22:38

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