All eyes on Friday's job data. Time to have a plan

The consenus is for 140K non-farm job addition. My thought on the plan is

A: If job number far better than 140K (let's say 160K or above), SPY and DOW will like stay flat as that means Fed will not cut rate aggresively. QQQ should go up by 1% as strong economy benefit Tech the most

B: If job number come roughly inline between 160K to 140K: this is the best outcome and all 3 index will rally and QQQ could go up by 2%

C: If job number come slightly below around 120K to 140K: IWM will rally as Fed is likely to cut another 50bps and QQQ/SPY stays flat

D: If job number lower than 120K: Market will sell off and QQQ down by 3%

所有跟帖: 

估計不會太大影響,老鮑星期一已經表態他不會激進加息,這兩天的波動其實是在消化這個信息,別的都是噪音 -SaltCel- 給 SaltCel 發送悄悄話 (60 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:44:11

如果job大幅低於預期,股市肯定sell off -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:47:00

ADP private payrolls 143000 in Sept, beat expectation -Lucky2022- 給 Lucky2022 發送悄悄話 (255 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:48:01

no, I was referring to nonfarm payroll on Friday -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:49:00

Friday also has unemployment data coming -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/02/2024 postreply 18:49:00

覺得低於預期可能性大,低多少不知道。 -朝陽如沐- 給 朝陽如沐 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/03/2024 postreply 04:43:47

feel like jobs will be 低於預期 -dtree- 給 dtree 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/03/2024 postreply 06:52:48

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