如果長期處於恐慌的狀態。。。

本帖於 2024-09-21 10:02:24 時間, 由普通用戶 三心三意 編輯

The truth about stock market is that it is a perfect example of entropy theory --- there is "always" something that makes people think sky is falling.

Human nature likes certainty and "in control", but with so many random news, events, geopolictical activities, sky seems that it will fall everyday, despite the fact that sun always rises up next day.

Conclusion: Do not live in "fear", embrace the opportunity that God has given us in this wonderful country.

Here is the list of "significant" crisis and events since 1985. They all seem like a doomsday event at the time, yet, stock market is at all time high today.

1. Black Monday (1987): Market crash on October 19, 1987, Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 22% in one day

2: Early 1990s Recession (1991): Tight monetary policy and the Gulf War causing oil price spikes, recession with rising unemployment and slow GDP growth.

3: Asian Financial Crisis (1997): Collapse of currency values in Asia due to overleveraged economies, high foreign debt, and speculative financial practices. Casuing global financial market volatility 

4: Russian Financial Crisis (1998):  Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued its currency due to falling oil prices and political instability, leading to the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).

5: Dot-Com Bubble Burst (2000): Excessive speculation in tech stocks, leading to inflated valuations that crashed when profitability failed to materialize. Nasdaq drop by 80%

6: 9/11 Terrorist Attacks (2001): Terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, causing New York Stock Exchange to pause trading for one entire week

7: Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009): Collapse of subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, and a systemic failure of financial institutions. Resulting in deep global recession, massive bank bailouts, and widespread economic hardship with high unemployment.

8: European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010-2011): High sovereign debt levels in European countries, especially Greece, leading to fears of global economic stagnation

9: U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2019): Escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China, affecting global trade and business confidence. Raised concern of global econmic slow down and job losses in US

10. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Global health crisis leading to lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, and a sharp economic contraction. Resulting in deepest global recession since World War II, with entire world on standstill

11. 2022-2023 Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes: Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, energy price spikes from the Russia-Ukraine war, and rapid rate hikes by central banks to combat inflation. 

所有跟帖: 

如果你還沒有經曆過這裏至少一半的危機,那你的投資生涯還隻是剛剛起步,還有很長的路 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:06:31

9 out of 11 is what I've been through -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:08:00

你從什麽時候開始覺得自己能相對比較好地克服不確定性帶來的恐懼? -太陽從西邊出來- 給 太陽從西邊出來 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:09:55

5-6 years after I start investing. -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (117 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:12:53

這很少見,說明你有投資天賦,大多數人一輩子做不來股票 -cnrhm2017- 給 cnrhm2017 發送悄悄話 cnrhm2017 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:25:02

不能克服人性的弱點,又沒有鈍感力,就很難。 -太陽從西邊出來- 給 太陽從西邊出來 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:29:30

lol, lots of people knew the housing crisis is coming -pega- 給 pega 發送悄悄話 pega 的博客首頁 (227 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:54:33

猛牛,you and i benefited from dotcom crash in early investing -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (104 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 11:02:25

這次的危機很可能是前所未有前所未見的 -bulubulu- 給 bulubulu 發送悄悄話 (90 bytes) () 09/22/2024 postreply 00:46:14

same here, Dot-Com Bubble Burst (2000)+9/11 Terrorist Attack -pega- 給 pega 發送悄悄話 pega 的博客首頁 (210 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:24:18

可以結合vix future contango vs backwardation來克服部分恐懼 -opst- 給 opst 發送悄悄話 (229 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:23:10

同意。 但如猛牛所說,首先是立場,然後才是具體措施。整天恐懼看衰美國,再多方法都是無用的 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:28:38

VIX期貨“逆價差”在哪裏有現成的圖表可以看嗎?還是得自己比較不同月份期貨的價格? -太陽從西邊出來- 給 太陽從西邊出來 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:35:19

這裏 https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_futures/ -opst- 給 opst 發送悄悄話 (313 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:38:09

謝謝。大千需要更多像這樣有價值的帖子!更多的投資方法分享 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:46:29

大哥觀察這個多長時間了?我記得5-6年前研究過,當時結論是很弱的指標,現在市場環境變化很大 -楚懷沙- 給 楚懷沙 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 11:34:11

不到一年。隻在8.2-8.6觀察到過,很明顯。4月下跌那次正好出差,那幾天沒看 -opst- 給 opst 發送悄悄話 (393 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 19:49:37

就前兩個沒經曆,後麵都經曆了。 -猛牛- 給 猛牛 發送悄悄話 猛牛 的博客首頁 (101 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:35:26

Market also went to dog house in summer 2015 to early 2016 -pega- 給 pega 發送悄悄話 pega 的博客首頁 (2538 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:37:32

Yes, lol. Didn't crude oil price go to negative at one time? -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:41:47

right after covid break out -pega- 給 pega 發送悄悄話 pega 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:50:29

2018 holiday saesons were ugly -pega- 給 pega 發送悄悄話 pega 的博客首頁 (258 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 10:48:44

最近的recession fear 有好幾年了 -CastlePines- 給 CastlePines 發送悄悄話 CastlePines 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 11:29:52

1987年呀? -楚懷沙- 給 楚懷沙 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:00:34

最成功是不炒股 -楚懷沙- 給 楚懷沙 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:11:38

還是有一些關係的,比如本版就很少人投資歐豬五國還有非洲等更差的經濟體。investing.com上有一篇關於南非股市的 -lanyin0314- 給 lanyin0314 發送悄悄話 (33 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:11:05

建議讀一下MMT現代貨幣理論,不要不把大教授當領導呀 -楚懷沙- 給 楚懷沙 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:17:49

舉個現實的例子:瑞士法郎的存量和她的經濟體量完全不成比例,也沒有變廢紙 -楚懷沙- 給 楚懷沙 發送悄悄話 (48 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:37:29

哈哈,我們可以加上 #12 Fed QE ineffective (2025) 這一條,5年後再回頭看 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:33:24

這個機製是什麽呢?到目前為止Fed貨幣政策還是有效的 -楚懷沙- 給 楚懷沙 發送悄悄話 (122 bytes) () 09/21/2024 postreply 12:40:21

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