更新一下QQQ的情況。
1: As mentioned on Tuesday, QQQ broke out of the tri-angle on the downside. So, this confirmed the scenario 2 I mentioned in last weekend's update. This is an indication that QQQ is likely in wave C of the correction phase. So far, it matches the pattern of wave A and wave B of Elliot wave theory pretty well.
- wave A drawdown is almost 100% of wave 5.
- wave B is at exact 78.6% Fib level of wave A
- See chart 1 below
2: Wave C in Elliot theory could have two drawdowns, 61.8% and 100% (the theory also has more severe drawdown possiblity but too far away from here), which we will need to watch closely next wek
- For 61.8% drawdown of wave A, wave C would take QQQ to 437. This area is very close to EMA200 (440). QQQ also has its 1Y volume profile point of control at 438. So the chance of seeing QQQ bounce around 440+/- area is quite good. We will need strong bounce (1.5% to 2% QQQ daily candle) as well as QQQ staying above this level for at least 2 days to confirm the end of wave C. A weak bounce does not confirm the ending of wave C
- For 100% drawdown of wave A, wave C would take QQQ to 400-404 level. This is also the 20% correction of QQQ from ATH. Clearly, this is a critical point. Dropping below this level means QQQ offically enters into bear market. Rally strong up from this level means the end of this correction phase.
- I have marked both (61.8% and 100%) on the 2nd chart below
3: Finally, just to repeat the key point from last weekend.
".... 簡單來說，就是科技股單邊上漲，買什麽都賺的情型已經過去了。下麵幾個月的布局非常重要。AI仍然是重要推力，但閉著眼睛買任何半導體的投資不會再有上半年那樣的回報. 具體買什麽股票因人而異，但投資人對企業的投資回報率的要求有了明顯的提高。 這種型勢下更應該偏持行業的絕對龍頭股，遠離一切概念炒作股。同時盡可能調倉進指數，減倉個股。最後要考慮科技股以外的行業，比如說能源，房地產，軍工等"
