看到這麽多勞模在網上分享看法，也利用這個長周末進一步談談我對NVDA 的GM和future 銷售的看法。
首先，no recommendation on trade,
其次， I may be wrong;
再次， 我有一點NVDAshort position--small weight。
好了，先談談NVDA的GM。 我擔心，NVDA的GM has hit inflection point, and will do lower from here. 我在上周的帖子裏麵講到，GM is coming down from Q1, Q2, Q3, and in Q4 we may see a bigger Gross margin degradation. Here is a math: Q1 GM is 78%, q2 is 75%plus, and q3 will be down a little big. But if the GM margin for the year is mid 70%, Q4 will be around 72%.
Keep in mind, we will see a ramping up of Blackwell in Q4, yet, the GM in Q4 will come down 3pts. investors may ask why. Here is my thinking。 同學們還記得NVDA's GTC 嗎？ NVDA announced Blackwell and its price. Before GTC, the street's consenuse was $70,000; yet NVDA's announce price was a little below that. What does that mean? meaning, Blackwell's GM could be lower. However, Q1 reported 78% GM, investors felt comfortable that NVDA could sell higher GM service /produce along with Blackwell to make up its margin in future.
Now based on NVDA's guidance, looks like, with the pick up of the Blackwell volumn, the margin may come down further
Why blackwell's price lower than consensus? may be due to competition or maintain its market share?
其次， sales。 NVDA 給出了一個指引， 然後+/-2%. therefore, it is a real posssiblity that the Q3 sales will be 2% below the mid point. From risk management perspective, what if the -2% actually happen? How many investors will push the stock to all time high with this risk in mind?
最後，投資者也不必恐慌，畢竟NVDA依然是AI的龍頭，依然報出了靚麗的財報，華爾街研究員依然在唱好。對任何投資者，大或小，恐慌都會hurt.
再重複一遍，我有小的short position, no recommendation. 這些分析可能是錯誤的。
