看一看花姐專業的英偉達前景模型預測

來源: 三心三意 於 2024-08-29 16:17:00 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 閱讀數 : (828 bytes)
本文內容已被 [ 三心三意 ] 在 2024-08-29 16:20:27 編輯過。如有問題，請報告版主或論壇管理刪除.

Ignore the outliers…

Bear case: assume only 7% YoY revenue growth in 2025 (2% per quarter)

Base Case1 : Assume 45% YoY (10% per quarter) revenue growth in 2025

This model also assume gross margin will come down to low 70% in 2025

based on this, the absolute floor for NVDA would be 90s (which is already unlikely as this assumes they only grow revenue by 2% quarter over quarter)

130s would be safe bet given AI industry’s current progression

More likely NVDA will go above 130s

This model is for 2025 so NVDA will have to show it can hit one of these trajectory in its next earning report to hit 130s

 

所有跟帖： 

• You dont need to believe, but can use it build your own -三心三意- ♂ 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 16:30:11

• Using this model, I calculated NVDA's price to be 105 -三心三意- ♂ 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (273 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 16:58:27

• 按照英偉達自己的財報，未來至少一個可能兩個季度，很難有那種爆發式增長。而現在的股價已經完全price了2015的增長。 -害怕- ♂ 給 害怕 發送悄悄話 (208 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 17:05:07

• NVDA's fastest growth period is behind it -越王劍- ♂ 給 越王劍 發送悄悄話 越王劍 的博客首頁 (628 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 18:33:37

• Agree. I am only estimating 10% QoQ growth with Blackwell. -三心三意- ♂ 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 18:38:57

• 女大的問題是 股價140 市值等同 aapl，大多數投資者無法接受 -exds- ♀ 給 exds 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 08/29/2024 postreply 19:23:53

• 多謝分享。 -羽衣甘藍- ♂ 給 羽衣甘藍 發送悄悄話 羽衣甘藍 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 08/30/2024 postreply 07:43:03

請您先登陸，再發跟帖！