Looked over NVDA based on fundamentals and TA this weekend
1: For fundamental analysis, I use FY2025 earning estimate (NVDA fiscal year is rougly one year ahead of calendar year) to estimate the potential stock price before it reports Q2 earning in Aug, and FY2026 earning estimate to estimate potential stock price by end of Dec this year.
For each of FY2025, and FY2026 estimate, I did 3 scenarios: Miss estimate, meet estimate, and exceed estimate and assigned assocaited forward looking PE ratio for each of the scenario.
You can take a look at the analysis in the attached table. But net-net....
NVDA is priced around $90-$115 in Aug, and $121-$151 by end of Dec --- These ranges assume NVDA will either meet or exceed earning estimate from wall street.
Of course, if NVDA ever miss the earning estimate, it will crash and by this model, it could go to $60s
2: From TA analysis, I will spare all the chart details, but
50EMA support is arounf $116
200EMA support is around $90 (it is not there yet, but this EMA likely to move up there)
Fib 61.8% lv is about $96, and 38% is about $110.
Have not had time to look at ABC wave yet
All in all, unless NVDA screwed up its earning and growth, I think anywhere in the range of mid $90 to mid 110s should be a good entry point for a later push.
