Copilot
Certainly! Here are some major concerns that could impact the stock market in June 2024:
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Economic Indicators and Recession Risk:
- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has fallen sharply from its record high in December 2021, marking its sharpest decline since the Great Recession. Historically, when the LEI has declined at least 5% from its peak, a recession has followed within 21 months. This decline could signal potential challenges for the stock market1.
- The Treasury yield curve has been inverted since late 2022, with the three-month Treasury bill paying a higher interest rate than the 10-year Treasury note. This inversion has preceded every recession since 1969 without any false positives.
- Despite the U.S. economy expanding by 2.5% in 2023, consumer spending and business investments slowed in Q1 2024, leading to lower-than-anticipated economic growth1.
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Inflation and Interest Rates:
- Stubborn inflation and elevated interest rates pose risks. The Federal Reserve’s response to inflation could impact market sentiment.
- Rising consumer debt may also affect economic stability.
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Geopolitical Events:
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Sector-Specific Concerns:
Remember that market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen events may also play a role. It’s essential to stay informed and consider diversification strategies to manage risks. Always consult with a financial advisor for personalized advice.
