今年第一季度起，TSM會恢複盈利增長，值得留意。
Taiwan Semi Isn't Too Bad, But It Isn't Nvidia
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) wasn't the best looking stock on the Nov. 1 follow-through day. It was trading below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. But by the time its Q3 earnings report came out (1), things were looking better.
The day before the earnings gap, it was looking at half the performance of Nvidia (NVDA) from the follow-through day. The 10% rise went a long way in narrowing the difference.
After a quick 20% move (2), TSM settled in for an orderly pullback to its 21-day line (3). These restrained pullbacks, especially after strong reactions to news and earnings, can be a ripe opportunity for new purchases.
When Taiwan Semi gapped up and went sideways (4), it established a line of resistance around 132 that established a trigger point.
As TSM broke above that line of resistance (5), the volume tracked higher, and it joined. Though it closed just above midrange on the new entry, Taiwan Semi saw a nice follow-up move the next day (6).
Notably, like many leaders in this market, TSM held its short-term 5-day moving average as it trended higher. At its peak (7), 18% gain from the entry in just six trading days.
Taiwan Semi wasn't alone. If you look on March 8, you can see a downside reversal on the Nasdaq composite that was largely due to the semiconductor space. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and more showed the same type of action. Taiwan Semi at least wasn't an outside day but these other examples were.
As weakness persisted the next trading day, exited the remaining position (8). But it's worth watching these stocks to see if they stay down. Taiwan Semi hasn't made progress from the exit as of Thursday (9). AMD has gotten even worse. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite made new highs, the semiconductor ETF is making progress and Nvidia scored a closing high Friday.
It's an important reminder that the odds might be in favor of weakness after a downside reversal, but it will hit stocks differently. The ones that recover quickly are often one's worth watching.
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