購買股票還是購買時代

本文內容已被 [ monseigneur ] 在 2023-12-29 11:23:32 編輯過。如有問題,請報告版主或論壇管理刪除.

Nasdaq peaks in year 2000 at 4k+; peaks in year 2023 at 16k+. From year 2000 to 2010, it suffers huge loss and keeps flat for a long time. Then it picks up and reaches today's level. The first decade is not a waste. Most hugely successful companies today are well established since year 2000. In the first decade they store energy, in the second they release. It is not just market sensationalism, because those companies are hugely profitable, with rising revenues and earnings year after year.

It's too much coincidence that many companies go through the same pattern. "Times" is the only explanation. After all, technology comes in waves. No single company can run by itself without benefiting from technologies created by others.

SP500 exhibits a similar pattern. It is strange that well established, boring companies can keep growing and amassing market share like crazy in the last decade, such as MA, V, UNH, COST, HD, or even SBUX.

To zoom out, there seems to be a wave every two decades. The reason is unclear. Something is orchestrating the grand show. It's unknown where we are currently in the show.

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是時代造神股,不是神股造時代. -金9金- 給 金9金 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:26:34

有可能,所以選股也是選時代 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:30:59

看看csco就很慘,員工都在找工作. 十幾年就在幾十塊銅板裡麵轉來轉去. -金9金- 給 金9金 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:37:35

不在浪潮裏,所以努力也白費;另一個例子是,實體店都被擠垮了 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:40:02

整個社會來說工作機會少了,社會不穩定, 一定要現在賺夠錢跑遠一點躲贏. 穀歌砍3萬人民說明很多. -金9金- 給 金9金 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:51:56

同意,作為個人什麽也改變不了 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:56:33

其實我覺得那些公司沒那麽BORING,經濟學家說,中國月收入2000元以下人口約為9.64億,印度非洲南美都是一堆窮人。 -c1xwy- 給 c1xwy 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:27:37

窮人都會開信用卡的,吃麥當勞的,以後也會有電動車。 -c1xwy- 給 c1xwy 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:28:36

海外市場的確是第二波擴張,但本土的擴張也存在,體現為強者吞並市場 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:34:20

20年就是一代人,年輕時的消費習慣跟隨一輩子 -挨踢- 給 挨踢 發送悄悄話 挨踢 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:35:26

是一種解釋 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/29/2023 postreply 11:37:41

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