Earning holds the key

According to Factset(Jan,6,2023),

Earnings Growth: For Q4 2022, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -4.1%. If -4.1% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported a year-over-year earnings decline since Q3 2020 (-5.7%).

Earnings Revisions: On September 30,2022, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2022 was 3.5%. Ten sectors are expected to report lower earnings today (compared to September 30) due to downward revisions to EPS estimates.

S&P 500 was at around 3600-3700 during the end of september

Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2022, 65 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 35 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.