有人說Strait of Hormuz開不開不關美國的事,聽聽這位退休的將軍怎麽說

不僅要開,還把這項任務作為這次軍事行動是否成功的一個重要指標。

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, the President has made clear that he needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His language has been contradictory on some of these points as to who's going to do it and when. What's the military reality of making it passable?

GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: We're on our way to doing that now, Margaret. This is part of a plan that's been in existence for many years. What we're doing right now is we're reducing Iranian ability to target ships in the strait through their short range missiles, their drones and other activities. We do that by maintaining air superiority over southern Iran on a 24/7 basis, looking for where these missiles are and striking them relentlessly. Once we reduce those to a very low level, then you'll be able to go in, if necessary, sweep for mines. 

MARGARET BRENNAN: But can he achieve his goals without ground troops, which is what the Secretary of State says. And how does this end? How do you call this a success?

GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: Sure, I think a success looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open. We get some kind of deal on the ballistic missile program, some kind of deal on the nuclear program. That's probably about as much as you could hope for. But I think they're very discreet things that, for me, at least from an operational military perspective, would be, would look like victory. I believe all of those things are actually within our grasp. We just need to continue. Iran will ultimately respond to the use of force. They know and understand it, perhaps better than we have, we have in the past. This administration is willing to use force. Other administrations have been thoroughly .....

另一位接受參訪的是位伊朗作家,他認為現在的伊朗政權堅不可摧,美國的目的很難達到。談判可能達成共識的可能還遙不可及。

MARGARET BRENNAN: Explain that, if you would, because what we hear from the White House and from Israel is that pressure will break them. You're saying they're unbreakable?

KARIM SADJADPOUR: At the moment, and this could change in the future, but we haven't seen any cracks in the regime's resolve. We haven't seen any cracks, cracks in the cohesion of its security forces, and given the fact that so many of its top officials, including the Supreme Leader, have been killed, it's a regime which is not prepared to compromise or change its ideology. They actually believe that antipathy towards America is part of their identity, and if you capitulate on that, it actually doesn't prolong your shelf life, it actually could hasten your death.

所有跟帖: 

登陸奪島,讓世界看看美國有沒有這個能力 -cn_abcd- 給 cn_abcd 發送悄悄話 cn_abcd 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 12:52:49

根據這位將軍的說法,美軍已經演練了多少年了,是raid而非長期占領,我相信能占,占多久是個問題。 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:18:41

1分鍾,一個小時,一天,一個月? -cn_abcd- 給 cn_abcd 發送悄悄話 cn_abcd 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:35:45

發動戰爭前海峽是開的,屬於自殘 -randd2000- 給 randd2000 發送悄悄話 randd2000 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 12:54:06

以後就沒法再關了,這就是差別。 -Uusequery- 給 Uusequery 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 12:55:21

沒人能保證以後,打阿富汗的時候會想到以後會狼狽逃出來嗎 -randd2000- 給 randd2000 發送悄悄話 randd2000 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 12:58:23

不常住就不會有相同的結果。打殘了就繼續看著不讓其恢複就行了。 -Uusequery- 給 Uusequery 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:06:08

胡扯吧,美軍一不在,海峽肯定又封上了,可以考慮派尼去看著 -randd2000- 給 randd2000 發送悄悄話 randd2000 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:33:32

切,軍隊打殘了,導彈沒了,拿什麽封? -Uusequery- 給 Uusequery 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:46:49

完全軍盲,那地方單兵肩扛導彈就可以封,尼能把伊朗所有的單兵全消滅了? -randd2000- 給 randd2000 發送悄悄話 randd2000 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 14:57:49

水雷比導彈更難對付,沒清掃完之前誰也別走了,清掃要幾周而且對方還可以很快再次布雷 -天青水藍- 給 天青水藍 發送悄悄話 天青水藍 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 20:42:01

打阿富汗就是去反恐殺本拉登的,沒有一個美國人要一直呆在阿富汗 -Bob007- 給 Bob007 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:45:23

美軍擊斃本拉登是2011年,撤出阿富汗是2021年。 -天青水藍- 給 天青水藍 發送悄悄話 天青水藍 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 20:48:08

這位將軍說的很清楚了,似乎沒什麽疑問 -Uusequery- 給 Uusequery 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 12:54:37

說得很不清楚,問他是否需要地麵部隊都不回答 -randd2000- 給 randd2000 發送悄悄話 randd2000 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 12:59:40

不在其位,不謀其政 -Uusequery- 給 Uusequery 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:02:53

說的很清楚就是美軍會負責重新讓海峽開通。 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:22:46

反正打下去兩敗俱傷,封了石油島伊朗經濟崩潰,封了海峽美國物價高企 -5678910- 給 5678910 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:04:03

所以要控製它的石油命門,重新開通海峽。做了就做到底,不仁不義就害了周圍國家。 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:25:48

美國可以拿下可以打通,但是為什麽要美國? 美國又不用那個海峽? 川普說了多次。 誰用誰去管那個海峽。 -BBL123- 給 BBL123 發送悄悄話 BBL123 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:09:44

美國不去打伊朗,伊朗不會關閉海峽。 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:19:30

美國打伊朗和關閉海峽是兩回事,伊朗47年前就和美國開戰了,而且美國隻是轟炸伊朗核能力和導彈能力,轟炸後完成目標會撤的 -BBL123- 給 BBL123 發送悄悄話 BBL123 的博客首頁 (72 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:27:08

在解決一個問題的時候,會製造另一個問題,這是衍生的問題就是同一個問題。而且海峽關閉美國油價高漲,中期必死。 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:30:13

高油價好過伊朗有了核武器和長程飛彈,美國曆來中期選舉執政黨大多數都會輸的 -BBL123- 給 BBL123 發送悄悄話 BBL123 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:32:53

選民就看affordibility,兩院皆輸,川普光杆兒, 2028會輸更慘。 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:36:39

當然如果你能把伊朗攻擊油船的能力徹底消滅,那也是解決了海峽關閉的問題。一樣,必須讓海峽開通。 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:32:46

是這位將軍沒有正麵回答是否會使用ground troops,他的回答比較戰略性,哈哈,也許軍機不可泄露?聽聽這段 -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (2922 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:10:04

將軍一家之言,海峽關閉更是美國籌碼,相信川總不會放過這個機會 -Dotline- 給 Dotline 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:12:19

這個籌碼的作用是什麽?什麽機會? -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:14:42

沒錯從測麵突出了川普轟炸伊朗的必要性 -BBL123- 給 BBL123 發送悄悄話 BBL123 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:23:36

行,大家都看到了這個必要性,然後呢?挑起了事端拍屁股走人? -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:27:19

什麽叫挑起事端? 47年前是伊朗先和美國開戰的。 60%的濃縮核鈾,4千公裏導彈足夠說明炸伊朗的必要性 -BBL123- 給 BBL123 發送悄悄話 BBL123 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:31:04

炸就炸徹底,要是他還能炸油船關閉海峽,說明你得接著炸!懂嗎? -MoonlightBee- 給 MoonlightBee 發送悄悄話 MoonlightBee 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/29/2026 postreply 13:33:43

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