About NVDA/AVGO/ORCL again

本帖於 2025-12-13 13:57:48 時間, 由版主 三心三意 編輯

Since so many posts about these 3 companies recently, just want to summarize my thoughts

1: NVDA is the best buy amognest these 3 at current price. Market can go up and down, and NVDA could even go as low as 140-150 if we see a big correction on Nasdaq, but I see NVDA firmly above 220+ in H1 of 2026. Right now, NVDA is traded at 25 forward PE

2: AVGO is also a solid buy but carries a high premium. After yesterday's crash, AVGO now stands at 35 forward PE. Considering its 47% EPS growth in 2026 and another 40% in 2027, 35 PE is not unreasoanble but still elevated. I think the floor for AVGO could be 270-310 in the worst case if we see a large Nasdaq correction. However, this is easily a 400+ stock before end of 2026, and may even stretch into 500.

3: ORCL is a tricky one. If you look at its EPS projection, it is backloaded into 2028-2029 (with growth rate above 35%). But for next 2 years, in 2026 and 2027, street has lowered the expectation and now only expects 20% growth. Coupled with uncertainty of high debt, patience is required to buy into Oracle and average price entry point need to be carefully managed. 

  With forward EPS estimate of $7.26, ORCL could go as low as $140 (for a PE of 20) if Nasdaq sells off. Right now at 189, it is priced at 26 PE. But as long as ORCL continues to meet EPS targets, we should see ORCL to go back to 220-250 range in 2026. As said above, paitence is required as it may take until 2027 to see explosive share price movement

所有跟帖: 

謝謝 -Kezuroukai- 給 Kezuroukai 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 13:52:37

TY! FA+TA+Risk Management... -越挫越勇2- 給 越挫越勇2 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:07:34

AVGO支撐位,觀點大致相同, 參考帖內的圖 -dindindon- 給 dindindon 發送悄悄話 dindindon 的博客首頁 (81 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:09:15

Above is just a simple EPS analysis, a rough range -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (86 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:11:01

是的, I wouldn't buy the first red candle. -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:12:02

謝分享 -半畝園- 給 半畝園 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 14:21:53

是的。 我覺得Orcl 132左右是個強支撐,但是大機會到不了。 -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 15:36:50

Bog,不要132啊。。。要不貧下中農很久不得翻身了。哈哈 -越挫越勇2- 給 越挫越勇2 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 15:49:21

三心文章中提到140, 我覺得跟TA的強支撐132接近, 但大概率到不了 -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 15:52:29

抱歉,Bog。是我粗心失言了 :-) -越挫越勇2- 給 越挫越勇2 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:05:12

沒有,我是覺得跌那麽多的概率低。 -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:08:02

真到了我豈不偷雞不成反蝕把米 -dancingpig- 給 dancingpig 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 16:11:24

:-p -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 18:08:52

請教三心對這幾個股票有操作嗎? 特別是ORCL, 在考慮是不是需要從ORCL換到NVDA -hvhp- 給 hvhp 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:03:59

具體的策略要自己做,做整體計劃, 根據自己的倉位%和風險承受能力去決定。 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:22:41

比如說我前一陣子把AVGO調倉一部分去NVDA,那我現在去加AVGO不代表我更看好它 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:24:28

再比如說如果我現在買ORCL是因為我的cost低,容錯率可以高一點,但這並不代表這就是最低點 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:26:41

However, 有一點我可以肯定的說,這3隻股票如果不小心跌到我這裏提到的低位,我會毫不猶豫的大力再加倉 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:29:26

謝謝三心,收益匪淺 -othershore- 給 othershore 發送悄悄話 othershore 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/14/2025 postreply 06:35:05

謝謝! -文心蘭1- 給 文心蘭1 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:41:53

感謝三心! -NewLeaf2021- 給 NewLeaf2021 發送悄悄話 NewLeaf2021 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 17:43:38

完全同意! 謝謝分享! -*江南雨*- 給 *江南雨* 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 19:38:50

謝三心同學。如果 NVDA / ORCL 跌倒好價位,我會加倉 NVDA, 建倉 ORCL。 -薄利多收- 給 薄利多收 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2025 postreply 20:28:53

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