ZT分享: Netflix, SOFI, META。。 the 5 with Fitz

看到下麵姐妹們在聊這幾個: 把早上讀的E-newsletter COPY過來:對於Netflix的看法我個人十分同意。

 

 

自己管理投資短短幾年來, 我感覺, CEO的性格基本定了公司(文化)性格, 公司性格- 股票性格- 》 吸引不同性格思維習慣的投資人。 好像有點意思 鬼臉

 

 

--------

 

Investing in optimism over time beats cowering in pessimism at moments in time. 

 

 

Here’s my playbook. 


1 — Netflix just bought an $82.7B headache 

Netflix just dropped?$82.7B?to swallow Warner Bros. Studios and HBO Max — snapping up Harry Potter, Batman, Game of Thrones, and Casablanca like it was clearing out the bargain bin at a liquidation sale. (Read

 

Hollywood romantics are calling it a dream merger. 

 

I think it's more like a multi-billion dollar migraine. 

 

Why? 

 

Simple. 

 

If the "legendary" library were a real money printer, it wouldn’t have been on the clearance rack to begin with. 

 

Paramount’s attorneys are already crying foul, firing off a letter questioning the “fairness and adequacy” of the sale process — which is corporate-speak for “we lost, and we’re salty about it.” 

 

Regulators are sharpening their knives because this could be an e-ticket ride straight to antitrust h---. 

 

Sigh. 

 

Trade Idea: If you?must?play NFLX, forget about the price of the stock. I think there's a good case to be made that NFLX short-term volatility is seriously misplaced and that’s what you want to focus on. Or at least I do. 

 

One way to do that is to target short-dated straddles because you're tactically going after abnormally high volatility, not making an investment play. Elevated IV often snaps back like a rubber band. And when you sell a straddle, you can make money even if the price doesn't move a lot because falling IV crushes options values. 

 

What's more, you don't need NFLX to calm down... just be "calmer" than expected. 

 

The key in situations like this one is disciplined "sizing" - meaning that you want just enough exposure to catch the volatility pop without blowing up your account if you're wrong.  

 

Again, purely tactical, not an investment play. 

 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many folks consider themselves to be investors only to find out the hard way that they’re speculating. Knowing who YOU are can help determine how you play a situation like this one profitably. Or not. 


2 — Zuck cancels the Metaverse just in time for AI to pay the bills  

Team Zuck is reportedly slashing up to 30% of its metaverse budget — yep, the same division that’s burned over $60 billion since 2020 and gave Wall Street the corporate equivalent of motion sickness. (Read

 

This is the same “Reality Labs” division that: 

 

  • has lost more than $60 billion since 2020 
  • has produced very little revenue in return 
  • has repeatedly frustrated investors 
  • became a running joke on Wall Street because of how wildly expensive — and unprofitable — it’s been 

 

MyPOV is that there are finally some adults in the room. 

 

Even so and as much as I love to hate the stock, Wall Street will defend it to the end of time. 

 

Probably $1,000 or more in the next few years. ‍ 


3 — Dilution Isn’t a Four-Letter Word… if you have the math covered 

SoFi shares fell nearly 6% after hours after announcing a $1.5 billion stock offering — and the weak money is apparently shocked. (Read

 

I’m not. 

 

SoFi has had a monster run — the market cap has nearly doubled this year; the stock is up more than 6x since late 2022. That kind of performance is like an engraved invitation for management to raise money while the getting’s good. 

 

This is where Keith’s Rule of the Back Page comes in: Don’t trade the headline — trade what it means.  

 

In this case, the headline screams dilution – which most investors misunderstand anyway - but the back page says that management thinks the business is strong enough to put fresh capital to work at presumably high(er) returns. 

 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Contrary to what many investors believe, new shares are not a fire sale if you can make the case that the money raised will grow faster than it dilutes my slice of the proverbial pie. 

所有跟帖: 

meta is on a new uptrend. sofi attactive. NFLX need patience -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/05/2025 postreply 17:00:00

很多人不喜歡Zucko. 比如上麵這個分析師 -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/05/2025 postreply 17:26:35

如果這是他不喜歡Meta的原因 , 他應該miss了90多 上漲7x的機會 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/05/2025 postreply 17:33:00

yes -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/05/2025 postreply 17:34:56

請您先登陸,再發跟帖!